Belmont Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 5/11/23

The Belmont Spring/Summer Meet continues on Thursday with 9 races. Post time is 3:05 p.m. ET from Belmont Park. Get in the game with mobile betting on FanDuel Sportsbook.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).

Belmont Park Betting Picks

Check out the biggest stakes races ahead at Belmont Park, including on May 13 for the Grade 1 Man o' War and Grade 3 Peter Pan.

According to numberFire horse racing projections and Guaranteed Tip Sheet, these are some of the best bets to make at FanDuel Racing today.

1. Scott Alaia and Liberty Flame, Race 4

FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1 and 10/1
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Race 4 is an Allowance race for state-bred fillies and mares at 1 mile. The numberFire data projects Scott Alaia (6/1) to win in a close finish ahead of Cinderella's Cause (7/2). The favorite is Silver Skillet (8/5), who gets first-time Lasix and returns off a 5-month layoff having scored her Maiden win by 14 lengths.

Scott Alaia won here last summer and returned to the track three weeks ago. She was outrun to the lead but stayed on gamely at the end to finish third and was claimed by trainer Oscar Barrera III, who is having a career-best season. Consider Liberty Flame (10/1), who didn't get the best trip last race and figures to have an easier time making the front end here on the stretch to 1 mile.

2. Loose Goose and Smoke and Heat, Race 5

FanDuel Racing Odds: 2/1 and 5/2
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Race 5 is a Claiming race for 3-year-olds and up going 1 mile. The numberFire data leans towards Smoke and Heat (5/2) ahead of Loose Goose (2/1), while Guaranteed Tip Sheet makes Loose Goose a best bet with top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding.

Loose Goose was a vet scratch on March 18, and he's posted an 85-speed figure after breaking his maiden last summer. Top trainer Todd Pletcher should have him ready to rebound while running for the $40K tag.

3. Daddy Knows and Aggregation, Race 7

FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/1 and 2/1
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Race 7 is an Allowance race for state-breds at 1-mile. The favorites are Hush of Storm (7/2) on the outside 7 post and Chad Brown-trained Aggregation (2/1) on the rail, who will be tough if he builds on his prior potential and form. Guaranteed Tip Sheet makes Aggregation a best bet, while numberFire projects a top-2 finish.

Daddy Knows (8/1) is interesting at this price. He won at Aqueduct in Feb. with a 100-speed figure and now attempts to get back on track after a disappointing showing in his last effort on an un-preferred sealed track.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.