Alabama vs San Diego State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 24 NCAA Tournament Game (Crimson Tide Sneak By)

Alabama vs San Diego State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 24 NCAA Tournament Game (Crimson Tide Sneak By)


Alabama vs San Diego State Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Tournament Game
  • No. 1 Alabama (31-5) vs. No. 18 San Diego State (29-6)
  • Date: Friday, March 24, 2023
  • Time: TBD
  • Venue: KFC Yum! Center -- Louisville, KY
  • Coverage: TBD

The 2023 NCAA Tournament continues on Friday with a Sweet 16 matchup between the No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs and No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide. San Diego State is aiming to earn its first Elite Eight appearance in school history, while Alabama is looking to make its first appearance since 2004.

San Diego State took care of business in a 75-52 win over Furman in the Round of 32 as th Aztecs held the Paladins to a 32.0% shooting mark. Meanwhile, Alabama picked apart Maryland in a 73-51 victory behind Jahvon Quinerly's team-high 22 points. Which team will advance with a win on Friday?

Alabama vs San Diego State Odds & Spread

Alabama enters this contest as a considerable favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This Sweet 16 clash also features an over/under of 136.5 points, with the over favored at -115 odds.

Alabama vs San Diego State Betting Trends

  • Alabama is 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in neutral site games this season.
  • The total has hit the over in five of Alabama's nine neutral site games.
  • San Diego State is 9-1 straight up in its last 10 games this season.
  • The total has hit the under in each of San Diego State's last 10 games.

Alabama vs San Diego State Prediction & Pick

Both the Crimson Tide and the Aztecs flexed their muscles in the Round of 32, which only heightens the anticipation of this Sweet 16 clash. Alabama has looked as advertised so far in the tournament, but it now runs into an experienced defense that runs a rotation of seven seniors and two juniors.

None of those players are afraid to play with physicality, either. San Diego State is 15th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in points allowed per game (63.3). Scoring will be more crucial than ever before for Alabama here. The Crimson Tide own a 29-1 when they score at least 71 points in a showdown.

While this may be a tough matchup for Alabama, head coach Nate Oats' team is a No. 1 seed for a reason. The Crimson Tide are averaging 79.0 points over its last five games and ranks 35th in offensive efficiency this season. They have more than enough depth to pull out a close win in the end.

Final Score Prediction: Alabama: 70 | San Diego State: 64

Alabama vs San Diego State Best Bet

The value in this game lies in the point total. After all, the total has hit the under in each of San Diego State's last 10 games overall as well as in five of Alabama's last six games overall. The pressure of playing in the NCAA Tournament is forcing every team to slow things down and focus on just winning.

San Diego State has held each of its last four opponents to under 60 points, which goes to show how disruptive its defense can be. Keep in mind the Aztecs also rank 259th in possessions per game, so it's clear the Crimson Tide will be forced to change the offensive attack. Being methodical will be key.

Bet: Under 136.5 Total Points (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.