49ers vs Eagles Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for NFC Conference Championship (An Ugly Win Still Does the Trick)

49ers vs Eagles Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for NFC Conference Championship (An Ugly Win Still Does the Trick)


49ers vs Eagles Divisional Round Game Info

2022-23 NFL Playoffs — NFC Conference Championship Game
San Francisco 49ers (13-4, 5-3 Away) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 7-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Coverage: FOX

After another thrilling Divisional Round, the NFL Playoffs move into Conference Championship weekend. There are just four teams in contention, but who will advance to Super Bowl 57?

The 1-seed Philadelphia Eagles punched their ticket to the NFC Conference Championship after a blowout win over the New York Giants during the Divisional Round. Can Philly keep up their dominant performances? The Eagles hold the third-best odds (+260) to win Super Bowl 57 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Meanwhile, the 49ers advance off a low-scoring win over the Dallas Cowboys, and their Super Bowl odds (+270) are the worst among the four remaining squads.

49ers vs Eagles Odds & Spread

All NFL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: SF: (+116) | PHI: (-136)
Spread: SF: +2.5 (-118) | PHI: -2.5 (-104)
Total: 45.5 —Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: SF: (+270) | PHI: (+260)

The Eagles may have been the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but the betting markets aren't being so quick to crown them. Philly is getting a slight edge at home, but this 1.5-point spread doesn't even reach the number usually attributed to home-field advantage, implying that the Niners may well be the favorites if this game were at a neutral site.

49ers vs Eagles Prediction & Pick

I think the NFL world is a little too quick to crown the Eagles off that blowout win over the New York Giants. The Giants are at least one tier below the Cowboys in terms of level of competition though, having earned their first playoff win over a similarly fraudulent Minnesota Vikings team.

The 49ers, who rank No. 2 in the NFL and No. 1 in the NFC in Football Outsiders' total DVOA metric, knocked off the No. 6 team in DVOA in the divisional round, while Philly took care of the 21st-ranked squad.

So not letting that one win cloud our view, we have two teams that are neck-and-neck at the top of the DVOA rankings. They also tied for fourth in the NFL by averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowed a similarly low 4.8 (Philly) and 5.0 (San Fran) yards per play to their opponents.

This matchup is really as close as it gets, but I have to side slightly with the favorite. Divisional Round aside, both teams' most difficult wins these season have been against opponents of a similar caliber, and we just have a much bigger sample size of Jalen Hurts' dominance than we do with Brock Purdy. Purdy could very well be the next big thing, but in such a close matchup that's not something I'm ready to bank on just yet.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers: 14 | Eagles: 17

49ers vs Eagles Betting Trends

- The 49ers are 9-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 games.
- The total has hit over in seven of the 49ers' last 11 games.
- Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- The total has hit the under in four of Philadelphia's last five games.

49ers vs Eagles Best Bet

With an appropriately close spread in such a close matchup, I'm not really eyeing either a spread or a moneyline bet here. What does interest me is the under.

The Eagles ranked No. 8 in time of possession this season, which more or less lined up with their No. 5 ranking in plays per game. The 49ers, on the other hand, ranked No. 2 in time of possession despite ranking just No. 21 in plays per game. Both these teams also ranked top-7 in run play percentage. Whether the teams are intentionally playing at a slow pace or not, the clock is going to be running between plays a ton in this game.

The 49ers had been on a stretch of crushing the over with Brock Purdy, but that was happening before people were really ready to buy in on him as a legitimate starter. The under cleared by a huge margin in the Divisional Round, and after seeing the elite Cowboys defense limit Purdy it's hard to imagine him suddenly going off and single-handedly lifting the 49ers into "over" territory in a similarly tough matchup.

Bet: Under 45.5 (-110)

Adam Taylor McKillop is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Adam Taylor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username atmckillop. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.