NFL Week 1 Betting Guide

Now that Thursday's thrilling opener between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions is officially behind us, we can go full-steam ahead into the first Sunday of the 2023-24 NFL regular season -- jump in jubilation!

Immediately, the "Battle for Ohio" featuring the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns looms as a marquee matchup in Week 1. From there, America will be treated to a classic NFC East rivalry when the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants meet on Sunday Night Football.

With the exception of four teams, every side is in action on September 10. Let's dive into this Sunday's main NFL slate with an emphasis on scoping out the most valuable of the traditional betting markets.

NFL Betting Picks (9/10/23)

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Sunday's Full Slate

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Spread: CIN -1.5
• Moneyline: CIN -126/CLE +108
• Total: 47.5

As just alluded to, the AFC North clash between the Bengals and Browns should be one of the best games throughout the NFL's opening week.

First things first: quarterback Joe Burrow appears ready to play in Week 1 after sustaining a non-contact calf injury at practice last month. Even better: the signal-caller just signed a record-breaking contract extension. That is obviously fantastic news for any member of the "Who Dey" Nation. For those wondering, Burrow is now tied for the shortest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook (+600) to win the upcoming league MVP award.

When surveying the power rankings at numberFire, Cincinnati -- who has reached the conference championship game in consecutive seasons -- chimes in at fifth overall and third in the AFC.

Head coach Zac Taylor has full confidence in the Bengals, who return most significant starters while adding left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. from Kansas City. Watching Brown go against Cleveland edge Myles Garrett right out of the gate will be must-see television.

On the same power rankings scale, the Browns are at 13th while also showing 3rd in their division. Deshaun Watson prepares for his first traditional season in Cleveland as he attempts to regain a form last seen in 2020. Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper will also be there to get the most out of the unit.

A season ago, the Browns and Bengals split the annual series with the home team claiming victory in both meetings. Their contest in Cincinnati came more recently (Week 14), displaying a 23-10 win for the Bengals. Still, it should be mentioned that Burrow has defeated the Browns only once in his career.

Best Bet: Bengals -1.5

Despite Who Dey's poor showing in Cleveland last season, I like Cincinnati laying a point and a hook on the road this week. In 2022, the Bengals produced 26.1 points per game while allowing just 20.1 points on average -- both of those scoring figures are notably better than Cleveland's at 21.2 for and 22.4 against.

I'm not sure we can bank on Burrow and the Bengals starting slowly for the second straight season. They have won back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1982, and when you consider Cincy's offensive skill group (dynamic playmakers Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon are all returning), the Bengals don't seem to be disappearing any time soon.

Laying less than a field goal, I am on Cincinnati ATS in Week 1.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: ATL -3.5
• Moneyline: CAR +166/ATL -198
• Total: 39.5 (-115/-105)

Here we see another opening-week divisional tilt but one pertaining to the NFC South.

The Atlanta Falcons will host the Carolina Panthers in the early window. With Charlotte and Atlanta less than 250 miles apart, this meeting always brings out the regional intensity.

Through their two meetings last season, the Panthers and Falcons split the pair of games. In the first head-to-head contest of 2022, Atlanta triumphed at home via overtime, 37-34. Of course, Carolina returned the favor in regulation just two weeks later in Charlotte.

Understanding where these two franchises are at pertaining to the quarterback spot, it can be tricky to predict which side will emerge here. The spread favors the home team on Sunday (Atlanta) between a field goal and touchdown right now, and honestly, this game could go either way.

The Panthers are officially entrusting the offense under heach coach Frank Reich to reigning first-overall draft pick Bryce Young. Across the field, Atlanta will start quarterback Desmond Ridder, who should have many viable options to work with on offense in Kyle Pitts, Drake London and rookie sensation Bijan Robinson.

Best Bet: Over 39.5 (-115)

I like a total play on the Panthers and Falcons this week. The number currently sits on 39 with a hook, which is actually the second-lowest total of the 16 opening-week games. Sure, both sides here are inexperienced at quarterback, but both sides also fell in the bottom 40% of the NFL last season in terms of points allowed. With that, I am going over 39.5 for CAR-ATL on Sunday.

Thankfully for over bettors, this game will be played on the fast turf of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. In 2022, the Falcons' scoring production was a bit better at home, shelling out 24.9 points per game when playing in Atlanta compared to 18.1 on the road. Additionally, the Falcons notched their highest scoring figure (37 points) of last season against Carolina.

Over the most recent meeting between these rivals in ATL, we saw a total of 8 touchdowns and 71 combined points. Simply, I think we can get to 40 or more in the upcoming matchup.

numberFire's game projections concur with this assessment, estimating 46.7 total points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Spread: MIN -5.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: TB +198/MIN -240
• Total: 45.5

In Week 1, not many are talking about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus Minnesota Vikings, but I think we will be in store for a lively affair in the Twin Cities.

Both Tampa and Minnesota were eliminated from title contention over Wild Card Weekend last year, but one side seems to have returned much stronger than the other.

Tom Brady is no longer an active NFL player, so the Bucs were forced to go a different route at signal-caller in 2023 -- enter former Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield. He'll have the comfort of operating with a solid defense that allowed just 21.1 points per game in 2022, but can Mayfield manage to elevate the offense in West Central Florida?

For the Vikings, they will start 2023 as authentic title contenders while also showing as the second-favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the NFC North (+290 odds) -- something they did last season for the first time since 2017. Behind the Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson connection (one that produced over 1,800 yards a year ago), Minnesota is a top-10 NFL offense.

Tampa Bay and Minnesota have not met head-to-head since 2020, so I'm not sure how much we can take away from that game since Brady and Rob Gronkowski are now "retired." Of course, the NFC status quo has transformed a bit since then.

Best Bet: Vikings -5.5 (-115)

Riding with the home chalk, I like the Vikings ATS this weekend. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the overall total number of bets in the aforementioned market is confidently on Minnesota, which suggests public support. In Week 1, I am ready to walk the plank off the Bucs' boat to get on board the Vikings' ship.

Last season, Minnesota scored 27.0 points per game when inside U.S. Bank Stadium while the Buccaneers produced a dismal 15.0 scoring clip on the road. In front of more than 50,000 fans screaming "SKOL," I think the Vikings cover upwards of a touchdown against a team that is struggling to find an offensive identity -- time to cue Prince's "Let's Go Crazy."

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: SEA -4.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: LAR +172/SEA -205
• Total: 46.5 (-108/-112)

In the Emerald City, the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks will get together for an opening-week NFC West romp. Playing in front of Seattle's raucous 12s is always a challenge for visiting opponents, and this Sunday afternoon will be no exception for the division-rival Rams. Of course, quarterback Matthew Stafford will be making his first start since Week 11 of last season.

It's tough to predict anything from Los Angeles' offense out of the gate, especially with news of All-Pro receiver Cooper Kupp being out in Week 1 (hamstring) -- he was notably working back from a season-ending ankle injury. Come Sunday, can familiar faces Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson pick up the slack on offense?

Seattle is more than ready to run it back with Geno Smith under center. A year after producing the league's best completion percentage of all qualified passers (69.8%), he'll have a top-five receiving trio on the field with him in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The latter underwent a recent surgical procedure on his wrist last month but appears ready to play in the opener. A fan of the ground game and play-action (572 PA attempts in 2022), the Seahawks also utilize a young and talented running back room.

Genuinely, nothing points toward an upset in the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. The Seahawks improved via the recent NFL Draft -- also selecting star cornerback Devon Witherspoon in the first round to add to an already-talented secondary -- whereas the Rams still have many holes on their roster.

Reflecting back on numberFire's power rankings, Seattle yields a nERD of 0.18 (15th) while LAR shows -1.06 (26th).

Best Bet: Seahawks -4.5 (-105)

Sorry if another home favorite isn't the most exciting selection, but it is my preferred route in this contest. Additionally, this spread has fallen by one point at FanDuel Sportsbook between Thursday and Friday of Week 1 -- covering 4.5 points is obviously easier than 5.5.

Interestingly enough, this divisional clash pits the oldest and youngest head coaches in the league against each other. Pete Carroll and Sean McVay both have Super Bowl victories on their respective resumes, but last season, the Seahawks bested Los Angeles twice.

In 2022, Seattle scored 23.9 points per game. When surveying the Rams' defense, you really only see the future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Donald as someone to look out for. Aside from him, most of their Super Bowl LVI defense is long gone -- All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey is now a member of the Miami Dolphins.

Simply, I think Seattle's diverse offense can truly get deep in their bag against this current unit from L.A.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.