MLB

National League MVP Odds Update: Ronald Acuna Jr. Returns to the Top

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.@ScottEdwardsJr
National League MVP Odds Update: Ronald Acuna Jr. Returns to the Top

There are just over two weeks left in the MLB season and it’s a race to the finish line in both trying to make the playoffs and winning awards.

The American League MVP has been closed out for what feels like months now, but the National League MVP race is a different beast. It has been as exciting as you’d want it to be in the last month of the season.

There are only two in contention, per the MLB awards odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here’s a look at what the odds look like with a handful of games left.

All stats are from FanGraphs.com.

Player
Odds
Ronald Acuna Jr.-750
Mookie Betts+460

Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves

For the majority of the 2023 season, Ronald Acuna Jr. has been the favorite to win the NL MVP. It was only a few weeks ago that the competition kicked into gear, leading to him no longer being the favorite for the award. Well, the Atlanta Braves outfielder made sure to put on one final surge to get the odds heavily back in his favor with two weeks left to go.

Since August 28th, Acuna has been hammering the baseball. He's got 9 home runs, 23 RBIs, 2 doubles, and 7 stolen bases while hitting .368 in that span. Of course, the season stats have been pretty out of this world all year as he draws closer and closer to a 40-40 campaign.

Over 146 games this season, Acuna has posted a .424 wOBA, .335 batting average, 37 home runs, 133 runs scored, 66 stolen bases, 97 RBIs, .251 ISO, and a 1.002 OPS. If Acuna is able to swat three more long balls, he'd be the first player since Alfonso Soriano in 2006 to record a 40-40 season. It's hard to deny his MVP candidacy -- especially if he does pull that off. It'd be very similar to Aaron Judge's résumé last year when he broke Roger Maris' AL home run record. If Acuna does get to 40 home runs, it'd unquestionably be the most impressive one in history.

It remains a big if, but with or without it, he's going to be the favorite most likely when this season concludes. He's the best player on the best team in baseball -- which he has been all year long.

Mookie Betts, 2B/SS/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Mookie Betts was able to overtake the NL MVP favorite three weeks ago before Acuna had another surge in him.

Just because the odds are so in favor of Acuna doesn't mean you should give up on Betts. He's got numbers to back him up in this chase for a second MVP trophy.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the best teams in the sport, and a major reason is due to what Betts has offered them this year. No only has he delivered at the plate (we'll get to that), but he's been far better defensively than Acuna has. Betts has an advantage there as his defensive runs saved rate comes in at a 0.5 while Acuna is at -12.5. That's a huge difference, and his other advantage shows when it comes to fWAR.

Shohei Ohtani leads the league in fWAR (8.9) -- which shouldn't come as too much of a shock -- but right behind him is the do-it-all star of the Dodgers. Betts has a 8.2 WAR compared to Acuna's 7.3 -- almost a full point higher.

Betts and Acuna are both similar in a lot of stats, but it's all the more interesting when he is better than the current favorite in many of the most important statistics:

Player
Home Runs
Runs
RBI
Average
Stolen Bases
OPS
OPS+
wRC+
fWAR
Mookie Betts39120103.312131.0191711748.2
Ronald Acuna3713397.335661.0021651687.3

The proof is there to support either or on the offensive side. Betts leads Acuna in home runs, RBIs, OPS, OPS+, wRC+ and fWAR. Add in the advantage on the defensive side of the ball -- even if Betts isn't playing at the Gold Glove levels he once was -- and you see that this shouldn't be as steep of odds as it actually is right now.

If Acuna gets the 40-40 season, the historic factor may give him the edge. However, Betts should be right there with him until the very end.


Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the MLB odds.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.