JP - Kawasaki - Race 3

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

Unknown

Dirt

30.0K

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Verdict

GOLD SUNDAY (2) sets the standard after going under by only a neck to Ewald at this track last start, and that effort also has the direct advantage of having him ahead of Low Non Bard from their recent meeting. His record around 7f is still that of a maiden with placings rather than wins, but the latest run, market respect and strong jockey-trainer profile make him the most convincing winning option. LOW NON BARD (7) has been placed in all four starts and is three from three in the placings at this track and distance, so his consistency keeps him right in the argument despite being beaten as a well-backed runner last time. PAMIR (4) was safely held by Ewald but was only beaten just over four lengths at long odds, which gives her some place appeal if the main pair do not put the race away. DERECHO (3) was plain first-up when last, yet his earlier half-length second to Gold Carrera shows enough ability to lift into the minors second-up.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Went very close at this track last start, working home evenly to finish second to Ewald and beaten a neck after being near the top of an open market. The previous run was poor, but he clearly rebounded and has since put a margin on Low Non Bard in the same form reference. Seven starts around 7f without a win is the only caveat, on the latest evidence and with strong local rider support, he is the one they have to beat. 1st Pick 2 Gold Sunday Jockey: Ryo Novata Trainer: Yoshihisa Suzuki J: Ryo Novata T: Yoshihisa Suzuki	217	-	-	-	39%	13/8
Analysis Went very close at this track last start, working home evenly to finish second to Ewald and beaten a neck after being near the top of an open market. The previous run was poor, but he clearly rebounded and has since put a margin on Low Non Bard in the same form reference. Seven starts around 7f without a win is the only caveat, on the latest evidence and with strong local rider support, he is the one they have to beat.
7	Kept his perfect placing record intact when third to Ewald at this track last start, beaten just over two lengths after being prominent in betting, though he was unable to sustain his effort after leading. He had earlier run third behind Shige King at big odds, and the broader profile is very solid with four placings from four starts. Gold Sunday has the recent edge, but this colt is reliable enough to be a major danger. 2nd Pick 7 Low Non Bard Jockey: Naoki Machida Trainer: Yoshihisa Suzuki J: Naoki Machida T: Yoshihisa Suzuki	148	-	-	-	27%	11/4
Analysis Kept his perfect placing record intact when third to Ewald at this track last start, beaten just over two lengths after being prominent in betting, though he was unable to sustain his effort after leading. He had earlier run third behind Shige King at big odds, and the broader profile is very solid with four placings from four starts. Gold Sunday has the recent edge, but this colt is reliable enough to be a major danger.
4	Made some improvement when fifth to Ewald at this track last start, beaten just over four lengths after starting at long odds, though she was only battling from a handy position. The run prior was weaker, finishing sixth and beaten over 14 lengths by Gold Monaco, so her winning profile remains thin. Still, she was not disgraced in the key recent race and shapes as a realistic place hope rather than a strong win play. 3rd Pick 4 Pamir Jockey: Kosuke Sakurai Trainer: Satoshi Koda J: Kosuke Sakurai T: Satoshi Koda	98	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Made some improvement when fifth to Ewald at this track last start, beaten just over four lengths after starting at long odds, though she was only battling from a handy position. The run prior was weaker, finishing sixth and beaten over 14 lengths by Gold Monaco, so her winning profile remains thin. Still, she was not disgraced in the key recent race and shapes as a realistic place hope rather than a strong win play.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Trifecta

A wager picking the first, second and third horses in the exact order. A trifecta box means paying more to ensure the horses can finish in any order in the top three spots.

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.