Muhammad Mokaev vs Jafel Filho Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for UFC 286 (Mokaev's Takedown Abilities Shine)

Mokaev vs Filho Fight Info, Date & Time

UFC 286 — Preliminary Card Flyweight Bout
Muhammad "The Punisher" Mokaev (8-0-0, 2 KOs) vs. Jafel "Pastor" Filho (14-2-0, 5 KOs)
Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023
Fight Time: This will be one of the fights on the preliminary card, which begins at 3 p.m. ET.
Venue: O2 Arena — London, England, United Kingdom
Coverage: ESPN, PPV

Mokaev vs Filho Odds & Prop Bets

All UFC 286 odds, lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline:
- Muhammad Mokaev: (-850)
- Jafel Filho: (+540)

Method of Victory:
- Mokaev by KO/TKO: (+600)
- Mokaev by Points: (+170)
- Mokaev by Submission: (+125)
- Filho by KO/TKO: (+1700)
- Filho by Points: (+1400)
- Filho by Submission: (+1300)

Mokaev vs Filho Prediction

Muhammad Mokaev has wasted no time making an impact at the UFC level. The 22-year-old came into his debut with a 6-0-0 record and has since beaten Cody Durden (submission), Charles Johnson (unanimous decision) and Malcolm Gordon (submission). He is just crushing one fight after another.

Standing in his way on Saturday is Jafel Filho, who is making his UFC debut with a 14-2-0 professional record. He most recently took down Roybert Echeverria via KO/TKO in September. While Filho is a prospect to keep an eye on, the 29-year-old couldn't have asked for a much tougher matchup here.

There is a reason Mokaev heads into this bout as a heavy -850 favorite. The England native averages a ridiculous 8.88 takedowns per 15 minutes and boasts a takedown accuracy rate of 54%. He has earned a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has the stamina to outlast any fighter on the ground.

I'll side with Muhammad Mokaev to come out on top.

Mokaev vs Filho Best Bet

The value in this fight lies with Mokaev, but not as an -850 moneyline favorite. Bettors looking to get in on the action can find a better payout when backing a method of victory prop. Four of Mokaev's nine professional wins have come via submission, including two of his three dominant wins in the UFC.

Keep in mind that Filho has tapped out at the professional level before, losing via a rear-naked choke submission to Luan Matheus in 2017. No one has been able to stop Mokaev's takedown abilities so far and the seven-year age gap here suggests Filho may not have the conditioning to keep up.

Bet: Muhammad Mokaev by Submission (+125)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

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