NRFI Bets to Target on Friday 4/19/24

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The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

This Miami Marlins-Chicago Cubs matchup carries a hefty 9.5-run total, yet we're seeing just -113 odds for a Yes Run First Inning (YRFI). While temperatures are expected to be under 60 degrees at Wrigley Field, we could also see winds blowing out to right field at around 14 mph.

Jameson Taillon is making his first 2024 start after beginning this campaign on the injured list. This suggests that he could experience some rust, and Taillon wasn't at his best in the first inning last season to begin with when he gave up a whopping 12 first-inning dingers in 29 starts (3.7 HR/9) off a 51.8% fly-ball rate. The windy conditions should improve our chances of these home run woes continuing.

Additionally, the right-hander had trouble with lefties in 2023, posting a 5.49 xFIP in the split. The Marlins haven't been an amazing offense this season, but their top of the order has been above average in the first inning (109 wRC+) and four of the first five projected batters will bat left-handed.

If Miami can't get the job done for us, Chicago's bats could do so against southpaw A.J. Puk. This is Puk's first campaign as a starter, and the experiment has gotten off to a rocky start. He's produced a 7.62 xFIP, 13.8% strikeout rate, and 24.1% walk rate over three outings, which is ugly all around.

Puk has also induced just a 30.6% ground-ball rate, so the wind could once again play a factor. The Cubs should have a righty-heavy lineup to counter the left-hander, and Puk allowed 1.7 HR/9 off a 44.8% fly-ball rate to righties last season.

Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-128)

Pitchers Spencer Turnbull and Garrett Crochet have performed well to begin the season, making this an intriguing spot to consider a NRFI.

Turnbull struggled in his last start but enters the day with a 3.39 xFIP, 26.2% strikeout rate, and 48.7% ground-ball rate over three outings. Injuries derailed Turnbull's 2023 campaign, but this fresh start with the Philadelphia Phillies seems to be bringing out his best thus far.

He probably won't have to be at his very best to get through this Chicago White Sox lineup, either. Injuries have left an already-frail offense even weaker, and most of Chicago's remaining key contributors have gotten off to sluggish starts. The White Sox have scored in the opening inning just 16.7% of the time, tied for 22nd.

The Phillies' bats are much more dangerous, but Crochet's play over four starts should give us confidence that he can hold the fort down. Like Turnbull, Crochet's last start wasn't great, but he still owns a sparkling 2.37 xFIP, 35.2% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate this year. That elite K rate is backed by a 15.8% swinging-strike rate and 33.2% CSW rate, too.

Although Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are still dangerous against left-handers, Crochet should have an advantage in the same-handed matchup, and getting past those two could decide whether or not this NRFI bet hits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.