Notre Dame Is Chasing Highest Win Total Yet Under Marcus Freeman

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are looking to take the next step under coach Marcus Freeman in his third season. They are still chasing their first New Year's Six bowl win since 1994, and the Irish are hoping to reach double-digit wins in the regular season for the first time under Freeman

With conference realignment and the 12-team College Football Playoff beginning in the 2024 season, Notre Dame has little room for error as they have remained an independent school. This means the Fighting Irish could fall short of the playoff even with an impressive regular season. The CFP committee recently approved the new model for the 12-team format, which gives the five highest seeds to the conference champions in the Power Five, followed by the seven-highest ranked teams by the committee.

This ensures that even with a perfect record, Notre Dame would still fall short of a top-five seeding for the postseason. Clearly, the Irish will constantly be challenged with this new format that begins in the upcoming season. With that said, this makes Notre Dame an intriguing school going forward. Will these trials eventually force the Fighting Irish into a conference?

FanDuel Sportsbook already has college football win totals live. Notre Dame has one of the highest win totals at 10.5. How will the Irish fare in their first season with the 12-team playoff format? Here's why Notre Dame could and could not win over 10.5 games.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Notre Dame Football Win Total Odds

Notre Dame Football Over/Under 10.5 Wins

• Over: +138
• Under: -170

Notre Dame 2024 Football Schedule

Why Notre Dame Could Win Over 10.5 Games (+138)

For Notre Dame to go over 10.5 wins, they would need the best season yet under Marcus Freeman. As the +138 odds suggest, most don't expect the Fighting Irish to reach 11 regular-season wins.

However, Notre Dame has a pretty favorable schedule that makes this feat possible. The toughest opponents on the 2024 slate look to be the Texas A&M Aggies, Florida State Seminoles, and Southern California Trojans.

Playing at the Aggies' daunting stadium is never an easy task, but Texas A&M is rebuilding with coach Mike Elko in his first season. The Aggies have a win total of only 8.5. Florida State could also be down with several key starters leaving, such as edge rusher Jared Verse, running back Trey Benson, wide receiver Keon Coleman, and quarterback Jordan Travis. The Seminoles have a win total of only 9.5 with the under at -148. With a 7.5-win total, USC is also expected to slide with several gaping holes left by 2023 starters, including quarterback Caleb Williams.

Every game on the Irish's schedule feels pretty manageable. It's not far-fetched to say that Notre Dame has a solid chance of winning every game.

While they are replacing some notable starters like quarterback Sam Hartman, offensive tackle Joe Alt, and running back Audric Estime, the Fighting Irish did an excellent job of replacing talent by feasting in the transfer portal. They landed the 8th-best quarterback available in Riley Leonard, the 6th-best edge rusher in R.J. Oben, and the 10th-best safety in Jordan Clark. All-American safety Xavier Watts, who won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy that's awarded to the top defensive player in the country, also made the surprising decision to return for another campaign.

Despite several key starters moving onto the NFL, I'm slightly leaning into the over for Notre Dame due to the enticing odds. They have key returning talent, added promising players from the transfer portal, and the schedule looks rather favorable.

Why Notre Dame Could Win Under 10.5 Games (-170)

Going with the under could have two major supporting points. First off, Notre Dame's ceiling is just not that high as they carry +2500 odds to win the national championship, per FanDuel's college football national championship odds. Additionally, the Irish don't really have an unequivocal superstar on the offense. Riley Leonard likely has the best chance to break out as he is +2000 to win the Heisman Trophy when looking at college football odds. However, Leonard totaled only 1,102 passing yards last season.

Some could argue you should take the under just because it's Notre Dame. Admittedly, this sounds very harsh, but the hard truth is the Fighting Irish fall short more times than not. Failing to win a major bowl game since 1994 says enough. However, I believe this is a pretty lazy argument, especially when you consider the roster turnover in college football on a year-to-year basis.

Instead, focusing on the changes for the offense could support the under. Sam Hartman to Leonard is a big change at QB. Hartman was more of a typical pocket passer while Leonard looks to run often with his mobile 6-foot-4, 205-pound frame. This offense could look to relentlessly run the rock, which wouldn't be a bad idea as the wide receiver room has lacked in recent seasons. However, we can't overlook the offensive line's losses, including Joe Alt, Blake Fisher, and Zeke Correll. There are no guarantees that a new-look offensive line can seamlessly fill in and lead a dominant run game.

Ultimately, Notre Dame's 2024 schedule feels very favorable. While the offense has some questions to answer, the defense has the potential to be one of the best units in college football. The defense returns 15 players with at least 100 snaps in the 2023 season, and Xavier Watts and cornerback Benjamin Morrison could lead an elite secondary.

The over looks rather promising for the Fighting Irish's 2024 win total. A low stakes bet on the over could be the way to go with the +138 odds.

Interested in other college football win totals or looking for the latest college football odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the college football betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.