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CasinoMystik Dan: Kentucky Derby Horse Odds, History and Prediction
The 150th Kentucky Derby is nearly here, and the field of 20 three-year-old horses is set.
Mystik Dan's Road to the Kentucky Derby generated 46 qualifying points and featured a win at the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn.
Mystik Dan Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Position
Mystik Dan's Kentucky Derby morning line odds are 20-1 (+2000), tied for 6th in the field.
Mystik Dan drew post position 3.
Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | ML Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | Danny Gargan | Luis Saez | 20-1 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | Chad Brown | Tyler Gaffalione | 3-1 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | Kenny McPeek | Brian Hernandez | 20-1 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | Brad Cox | Flavien Prat | 8-1 |
| 5 | Catalytic | Saffie Joseph, Jr. | Jose Ortiz | 30-1 |
| 6 | Just Steel | D. Wayne Lukas | Keith Asmussen | 20-1 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | Whit Beckman | Ben Curtis | 20-1 |
Mystik Dan Horse Trainer and Jockey
Trainer Ken McPeek has a Preakness Stakes win (Swiss Skydiver in 2020) on his profile in recent years but also trained Sarava to a 2002 Belmont Stakes victory.
McPeek's Tejano Run was runner-up in the 1995 Kentucky Derby, as well.
McPeek feels confident about the draw for Mystik Dan. He spoke with FanDuel TV's Andie Biancone:
Jockey Brian Hernandez rode Creative Minister to a third at the Preakness Stakes in 2022.
Hernandez spoke to FanDuel TV's Christina Blacker about Mystik Dan:
Mystik Dan Race History
Mystik Dan has registered three Speed Scores (via Equibase) of 100 or higher, including two straight of 106-plus, and has a win at Churchill Downs.
Date | Track | Race | Finish | Speed Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/30/2024 | Oaklawn Park | Arkansas Derby (Gr. 1) | 3 | 106 |
| 2/3/2024 | Oaklawn Park | Southwest Stakes (Gr. 3) | 1 | 110 |
| 1/1/2024 | Oaklawn Park | Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed) | 5 | 91 |
| 11/25/2023 | Churchill Downs | Allowance Optional Claiming | 5 | 71 |
| 11/12/2023 | Churchill Downs | Maiden Special Weight | 1 | 100 |
| 10/22/2023 | Keeneland | Maiden Special Weight | 2 | 87 |
Mystik Dan Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick
Mystik Dan's Southwest Stakes win came in muddy conditions and could deserve a boost if conditions are in play again.
Despite sitting in the lower level of qualifying points, there are reasons to like Mystik Dan's profile.
Mystik Dan's maximum Speed Score (110) ties for second-best (with Fierceness and behind only Just Steel's 112).
Only Fierceness (3 of 5; 60.0%) and Just A Touch (2 of 3; 66.7%) reached a 100 Speed Score in a higher rate of races than Mystik Dan (3 of 6; 50.0%).
Since 1930, 22.3% of horses from post 3 have finished in the money, the fourth-highest rate of all 20 positions.
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