NBA Play-In Tournament: Kings vs. Pelicans Betting Picks

The official NBA Playoffs are almost here, but first we need to lock down those final seeds in each bracket. While the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat duke it out for the 8 seed in the East, the Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans will battle for the final spot on the West's half of the bracket.

The Pelicans entered the Play-In Tournament as the West's top seed, but fell to the Los Angeles Lakers in their first-round matchup. They'll now face elimination if they can't win against the Kings. They swept the Kings 5-0 during their regular-season and In-Season Tournament meetings, but can they bounce back on Friday without Zion Williamson (hamstring) in the lineup?

On the flip side, the Kings look like they could be catching a nice wave into the playoffs. They shut the door on the Golden State Warriors in their first Play-In Tournament game, winning by a decisive 24-point margin. Do they have what it takes to turn the tides against the Pelicans after losing five straight to them?

Regardless of which team comes out on top, this game should be an ultra-competitive one. Each of these teams battled through the intense Western Conference during the season and deserve a chance in the playoffs.

Let's take a look at the Play-In Tournament Odds market on FanDuel Sportsbook to see how the market thinks this game might shake out.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Play-In Tournament Betting Picks

Kings-Pelicans Betting Odds

Date and Time: Friday, April 20th, 9:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Kings -1 (-112)

Total: 211.5

Moneyline:

• Kings: -118
• Pelicans: -108

Kings vs. Pelicans Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

• Sacramento Kings:
  • nERD: 53.6 (18th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 116.7 (11th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 114.2 (14th)
  • Pace: 99.2 (14th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 42-39-1
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 31.0% (27th) - 65.7% (6th)
    • Mid: 25.8% (15th) - 44.5% (11th)
    • 3PT: 43.2% (3rd) - 36.6% (16th)
• New Orleans Pelicans:
  • nERD: 64.4 (5th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 116.6 (13th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.1 (6th)
  • Pace: 98.5 (16th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 43-37-2
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 35.5% (10th) - 62.7% (18th)
    • Mid: 27.2% (22nd) - 44.4% (12th)
    • 3PT: 37.3% (22nd) - 38.3 (4th)

Kings vs. Pelicans Best Bet

Pelicans Moneyline (+100)

The momentum clearly seems to favor the Kings heading into Friday's game, but the Pelicans still won all five of these teams' regular-season meetings. Even without Williamson, I still like their chances of taking this one outright.

In those five games, the Pelicans won by an average of 19.2 points a night. They were just demonstrably the better team during the year. Both of the Kings' top stars -- Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox -- played in all five of those games, and the Kings still had Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner Malik Monk healthy. Monk is now dealing with a knee issue and will miss Friday's game alongside 59-game starter Kevin Huerter.
Despite how it feels, the Kings are actually the more banged-up team right now. They were forced to lean heavily on their starters in their win over the Warriors, with each of Fox, Keon Ellis, and Keegan Murray playing at least 38.5 minutes, Sabonis logging almost 37 minutes, and Harrison Barnes playing 34. The Pelicans' deeper bench can keep them fresher on the court on Friday.

We even saw this same matchup without Williamson during the year. Williamson missed their January 7th meeting, a game that ended 133-100 in the Pelicans' favor.

The Pelicans endured a tough loss to an underdog Lakers team on the national stage earlier in the week, and Williamson's injury added salt to the wound. But New Orleans is still the better team and should show that on Friday.

Brandon Ingram Over 1.5 Made Threes (+140)

While we've covered Zion Williamson's injury and its ramifications throughout this article, we haven't quite touched on Brandon Ingram yet.

The veteran was simply not himself against the Lakers last Sunday for the regular-season finale, logging just over 23 minutes before the Pelicans pulled him from the game. His usage ticked up slightly in their rematch a few days later (24 minutes), but he was still nowhere near his season average of 32.9 minutes per game.

His performance does make sense, though. He was back in the lineup for the first time in 12 games after dealing with a bone bruise during the final month. Neither of their last two games had season-ending stakes attached to them. With Williamson sidelined, I'm expecting Ingram to give it his all in this sudden death matchup. And for what it's worth, he logged a 3-pointer in each of his last two games despite playing limited minutes.

Ingram played in nine games without Williamson this season. He took at least three 3-pointers in all but two of those games and averaged 3.4 per game overall. In non-blowout games (games that were decided by fewer than 10 total points) without Williamson, he averaged 5.3 attempts per game. In the games he played against the Kings already this year, he averaged 4.5 3PA's a game.

We're not dealing with the same Ingram who was launching up six 3-pointers a game from a few seasons ago, but he should still be able to hit a few against the Kings on Friday. Sacramento's 3-point defense left much to be desired during the year and allowed their foes to drain 38.7% of their attempts -- the second-highest rate in the league.

The public sentiment about the Pelicans heading into Friday's game isn't great, but the Pelicans are still a strong team. With their season on the line, I'm expecting a big game from the whole team -- especially Ingram.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.