NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 4/14/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA Best Bets

Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks

Donte DiVincenzo Over 24.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-125)

Welcome to the worst NBA betting day of the year. Even some the few teams with something to play for are choosing to rest starters instead, creating plenty of ambiguity in lines across the day.

However, this game has a tiny bit of stability. The Chicago Bulls are locked into the East's 9 seed, but they'll allegedly play starters normal minutes in this one. The New York Knicks have plenty to play for and can end the day anywhere between the 2 seed and 4 seed. It's better than what we've got elsewhere.

As a result, Donte DiVincenzo might be undervalued to produce. This should be a good matchup for what the long-distance sniper likes to do. Chicago has allowed the second-most threes made per game to his shooting guard spot (3.7), and they've also allowed the fourth-most assists per game to the position.

FanDuel Reseach's NBA projections expect 19.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.6 assists from DiVincenzo on Sunday, totaling 30.2 PRA. I couldn't pass on this value despite not believing Chicago will be at full mast all game.

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic

Bucks +6.5 (-110)

Here's a game that actually means something. The Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic still have seeding to play for, and Orlando could even still tumble into the Play-In Tournament.

Of course, Milwaukee will have to compete without Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) again on Sunday, so they're at a bit of a deficit to normal. The Bucks have a -2.7 net rating in games where Giannis didn't play this year.

However, I'm still taking the points. Damian Lillard is probably to return to the lineup, and Orlando's lack of firepower makes it hard to lay such a big number. In addition to just a +1.8 net rating this season, the Magic's 112.8 offensive rating is still eighth-worst in basketball.

Most of our analytical friends expect Milwaukee to cover sans Giannis. numberFire gives it a 63.1% likelihood of happening, and Massey Ratings (66.0%) is on the same page. DRatings' projected margin here is also just 3.3 points.

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers

Tyrese Haliburton Over 2.5 Threes Made (-128)

As was the case with DiVincenzo, I'm only diving into prop markets that are grossly undervalued if the motivation is questionable. Here's another.

The Atlanta Hawks are locked into the 10 seed with absolutely nothing to play for. They'll allegedly still trout out key pieces like Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela, but no one knows how long that'll remain the case. Still, needing a win for ceding, I'm looking to the Indiana Pacers' franchise player to deliver.

Tyrese Haliburton is way too productive from three for a line at 2.5 made in this matchup. Atlanta allows the ninth-most three-point attempts per game (33.4), so they're no lockdown defense on the perimeter. Hali, meanwhile, has chucked 8.7 attempts from downtown per game in April and has made an efficient 38.5% of them. That's 3.3 per game.

FDR has Haliburton projected for 3.2 triples made on Sunday, and he'd likely be involved in the process of blowing the Hawks out. I'd have expected this line to sit at 3.5.

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

Timberwolves ML (-120)
Devin Booker Under 25.5 Points (-115)

This is arguably the game of the day with pivotal stakes for both teams.

Though the Oklahoma City Thunder will likely lock in the top seed out west, it still makes sense for the Minnesota Timberwolves to go for the 2 seed. They'd potentially draw these Phoenix Suns in either event, so they may as well potentially secure home court against the Denver Nuggets in a prospective matchup. Phoenix needs a win here -- and help -- to avoid the Play-In Tournament.

If both teams are going at full strength, there's just no doubt Minnesota, at home, is better. The T-Wolves have cruised to a +6.9 net rating in games without Karl-Anthony Towns this season, and Phoenix has just a +3.8 rating in games with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal all playing.

That's why, across the board, top models expect Minnesota to prevail. numberFire (68.3%), DRatings (56.4%), and Massey (61.0%) all assign a healthy probability of that happening.

If that's the case, it's likely the Wolves have kept Booker in check -- as they have most shooting guards this season. Minnesota allows the fewest points per game to twos (19.5) and second-fewest points in the paint per game (46.1) overall. They're a nightmare matchup for Book, who has averaged 22.0 points per contest in a pair of previous matchups with Minny.

FanDuel Research's projections expect just 23.6 points from Booker at a median; the under is the side to back.

Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans

Pelicans Team Total Over 116.5 (-115)

The other game where both teams have ultimate reason to win is this one.

The New Orleans Pelicans take the West's 6 seed with a win, and the Los Angeles Lakers lock up a crucial 8 seed to potentially have a home game in the final Play-In match if needed. Stakes couldn't be higher, but I don't have a particular lean on the outcome with LeBron James on the other side of a bet most analytical models recommend.

No matter what magic James can pull to potentially sneak this game out, he's not a high-level defender nearing 40, and the Lakers are a team have mightily struggled keeping points off the board with the league's 13th-worst defensive rating (114.9) while playing at its 4th-fastest pace.

The Pels should score here -- as they did in a 139-122 loss to the Lakers in L.A. earlier this calendar year. New Orleans has still posted an offensive rating of 115.5 in games without Brandon Ingram this season.

The over or Pelicans' spread also get a thumbs up from most of our key sources, but I prefer this angle. It's one that numberFire (121.7), DRatings (117.1), and Massey (119.0) are projecting to hit across the board.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.