NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

NASCAR DFS Picks

Track Primer and General Lineup Strategy

The Cup Series' schedule used to be littered with 1.5-mile tracks, but the 2023 shift now marks just a second this weekend in the middle of April. How times have changed.

Texas Motor Speedway's repave in 2017 plummeted the quality of racing, turning the intermediate oval known for multi-groove racing into a treacherous, fast, one-groove race track. It's widely regarded as the worst track for racing in modern NASCAR, but the premier market in the Dallas area is a huge one that the sport can't just abandon.

As a result, track position is an extreme premium here well above tire wear. Two drivers combined to lead 210 of 267 laps in last September's event, and the 2022 event was marred by tire failures.

While we want to prioritize drivers who can get out front (and likely hold the lead for a while), there is quite an attrition rate due to the tight groove for racing. There have been at least 11 cautions in each of the last three points-paying races here.

Therefore, I'm more open to value plays starting at the back than you might think given how hard it is to pass, but the data still favors taking drivers toward the front. Of the last 30 top-10 finishers at Texas, 23 of them (76.7%) started in the top-15 spots.

Speed is everything here, so I'm extremely receptive of what we've seen in practice and qualifying this weekend.

Driver Rankings

Below are my post-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, starting order, recent form, track history, and overall talent level -- in that order.

Starting Spot is where the drivers will roll off the grid. For potential lap leaders (i.e. high-salaried drivers), closer access to the front is better. For value plays, a lower starting spot gives a higher floor and access to 0.5 points on FanDuel for each position advanced in the order.

Practice Ranks are provided for both 5-lap and 10-lap average data. Those can typically be found at iFantasyRace.com for all times, including different intervals that may be more appropriate for the track type.

Jim's Sims are the win simulations run by FanDuel Research's Jim Sannes. This week's sims were updated after practice and qualifying. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in the sims or a top-15 finish this season were included in the rankings.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• Texas (Fall 2023) - 65%
• Las Vegas (Spring 2024) - 35%

Potential Lap-Leaders

Kyle Larson ($14,000)

It appears Kyle Larson is picking up where he left off last September at Texas.

Larson led 99 laps before a late restart left him side-by-side with Bubba Wallace ($9,000), and Wallace pinned the #5 machine to the bottom and spun him out in Turn 1, leading to a DNF that ultimately cost Larson the Cup Series title.

However, there's no doubt he's positioned to dominate this weekend. Larson had the fastest median time in that race and at the only 1.5-mile track we've been to thus far, Las Vegas. He won the pole and was second on the 10-lap average charts in practice.

With no assured challenger to the race's favorite to win, per the NASCAR odds at FanDuel, you can't leave Larson behind in cash-game formats.

Tyler Reddick ($13,500)

The closest thing to a direct challenger is Tyler Reddick.

Reddick won the 2022 fall event at Texas, so he's familiar with how to get it done here, and his speed marks are in the neighborhood of Larson's. His median time (eighth-best) at Texas wasn't amazing, but he did post the second-fastest median out in Vegas. The #45 has also been quick at the track this weekend, qualifying fourth and besting Larson on the 10-lap charts.

These two have high salaries, but there are enough quality value pieces to grab both in cash games if Reddick's long-run speed ends up being superior. Larson could still restart ahead of him thanks to his premium pit stall, creating a situation where the two share plenty of time out front.

When two of my top-three drivers in speed blend have showed up to the track lightning quick, we've got to just swallow the chalk and take both.

Mid-Range Threats

Chase Elliott ($10,500)

There seems to be a growing trend with NASCAR's most popular driver.

Chase Elliott continues to be a bit behind his Hendrick Motorsports teammates -- like Larson and William Byron -- in practice and qualifying, but Elliott has continued to ascend throughout the race and has posted three top-eight finishes in his last four races.

There's a pretty high floor of speed -- even if unspectacular. Chase posted top-16 median times at the two tracks (Texas and Las Vegas) in this weekend's blend, and his current form seems even better.

From the 24th starting spot, another top-8 finish would make Elliott one of the best DFS plays on the board.

Ty Gibbs ($9,500)

If there's a car that seems to have raw speed that could emerge as a favorite beyond Larson and Reddick, it might be Ty Gibbs.

I usually put next-to-no stock in single-lap speeds alone if there's not a translation to previous race form or long-run data in practice, but Texas' single-groove track is a bit different. Being fast can keep a car out front for a long time. It's plausible Gibbs could get ahead of Larson or Reddick, and then, they simply can't pass him back.

Gibbs had the fastest single-lap speed in practice by over two tenths of a second and nearly backed it up with a pole -- only to fall short to Larson.

I won't use Gibbs nearly as much as Larson or Reddick, but he could be a crucial tournament piece if his fast #54 hot rod is able to deny the pair fantasy points for laps led.

Others to Consider

• Ross Chastain ($10,000)
  • With Chevrolet seemingly pacing the field in speed, Chastain's fourth-best median blend and 10-lap average in practice did not go unnoticed from yours truly. I'll mix him into my tournament build.
• Bubba Wallace ($9,000)
  • A teammate of Reddick, Wallace's run to second last year went through Larson's fender. I'm expecting another solid run given his ninth-best time on the 10-lap average charts in practice.
• Joey Logano ($8,500)
  • Ford has been down on speed all year, so I'm wary of using them at a high-speed venue. Joey, though, was ninth on the single-lap charts and third on the 10-lap charts. Starting 20th at a low salary, there's not much risk to using him, and he's an excellent pivot off a value play to come.

Value Plays

Kyle Busch ($8,200)

With Larson and Reddick etched into most builds, I think the crucial decision on this slate is to play or fade Kyle Busch.

Busch will start 35th after a practice wreck led to not running a qualifying lap. The four-time Texas winner will command attention on name value and starting spot, but there are plenty of red flags around his profile.

K.B. finished 34th with the race's 32nd-best median lap time last September in his only Texas start with Richard Childress Racing, his current team. Before Busch wrecked in practice, he was just 27th on the single-lap speed charts and didn't complete 10 laps to qualify for an average.

Frankly, I think there's a substantial chance Busch runs in the 20s with minimal speed and plummets several lineups. I'll reject him knowing the risk given his place-differential upside and expected popularity.

Michael McDowell ($5,500)

Michael McDowell will never forget Texas for one violent reason, but he's trying to create a second memory that is much more positive.

McDowell's fifth-best median time at Texas last fall was fairly surprising, but now he's making a habit of speed. McDowell was seventh on the 10-lap charts in practice but -- thankfully -- only qualified 13th to leave a bit of meat on the place-differential bone.

At $5,500, McDowell profiles to be the type of DFS play I talked about in the intro. Passing is difficult here, and his Ford clearly has the speed to maintain position. Most will overlook him for others starting deeper in the field in this salary tier, but McD appears to be a real top-10 threat this weekend.

Others to Consider

• Alex Bowman ($8,000)
  • With Byron, Larson, and Elliott running so well, Bowman's salary is friendly in a team car, and he posted the 13th-best time on the 10-lap average charts. His starting spot (14th) isn't perfect, but he's a decent plug and another excellent Busch pivot.
• Josh Berry ($6,000)
  • Rodney Childers always had Kevin Harvick faster than his teammates at these larger ovals, and Berry seems to now get the same treatment. Starting 25th, he was 11th in single-lap speeds and 14th within the 10-lap averages. I believe in Childers' setup above all.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($4,000)
  • Stenhouse messed up qualifying, but he posted a top-20 time on the single-lap and 10-lap charts. This is his best track type, posting a top-18 finish in three of the last five races at 1.5-mile, non-drafting ovals, and his manufacturer (Chevy) is the correct one given what we've seen this weekend.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.