MLB Betting Picks for Thursday 4/18/24

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Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, 7:40 p.m. ET

Cubs -1.5 (+140)

With Thursday's slate starting rather early, we'll target a later game at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.

The Chicago Cubs (11-7) are back on the Northside after spending time in the desert. Chicago is home to commence a four-game set with the reeling Miami Marlins (4-15). Notably, Miami is among the worst teams in MLB this year.

To open this series, the projected starters on the mound are Jameson Taillon and lefty A.J. Puk. Taillon compiled a respectable 4.34 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2023, and this will be his 2024 debut. Conversely, Puk has been inefficient so far this season, issuing an influx of walks (11.81 BB/9).

On offense, Chicago is the much stronger club. The Cubbies have produced a .748 team OPS this season whereas Miami shows .605 in that metric. With everything considered, Chi-Town's National League franchise is in an optimal spot for a run-line wager on Thursday.

At +140 odds, Cubs -1.5 has my eye. Their recent play versus the Arizona Diamondbacks was noteworthy, as Chicago nearly earned a sweep in downtown Phoenix. Additionally, they scored a total of 19 runs in three bids at Chase Field.

Since the Marlins aren't hitting or pitching well this season, they seem worth a challenge in this market. Also, the Cubs are the top run-line team of 2024, yielding a 72.2% cover rate (13-5) so far.

At numberFire, Chicago (0.40 nERD) is ranked 14th in the Majors while Miami (-2.17 nERD) is much further down at 28th overall. That's enough separation for me to have confidence in a hot team. On the corner of Clark and Addison, I like the Cubbies to win by two or more runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-122)

In the "City by the Bay," Thursday will feature an NL West clash between the D-backs (9-10) and San Francisco Giants (8-11).

The Giants are returning to picturesque Oracle Park after a six-game road trip in Florida. They recently split results with the aforementioned Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays, yet are looking to start this next series on a high note. To perpetuate that effort, San Francisco ace Logan Webb (3.79 SIERA) will toe the rubber on Thursday.

As noted, Arizona will arrive in Northern California on the heels of a scrappy series with the Cubs. Overall, the Diamondbacks are swinging the bats well in 2024, boasting a top-10 team OPS. However, their strong lineup is used to taking hacks at Chase Field (1,060 ft. elev.); the Snakes' offense could see a dip on Thursday in San Francisco (0 ft. elev.).

The D-backs will hand the ball to Ryne Nelson in this divisional game. Through 13.2 innings of work, Nelson has already been tagged with eight earned runs this year. From there, the former Oregon Duck is yielding a Statcast hard-hit rate of 43.5%.

Despite Oracle Park's dense seaside air, I believe this contest has a strong chance to go over 7.5 runs (-122 odds). In the current campaign, San Francisco is scoring 4.16 runs per game while Arizona is a bit higher at 5.47 runs per game.

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections concur, showing a 4.42-3.59 score estimation in favor of the Giants -- 8.01 combined runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.