Madrid Open Betting Picks: Tuesday 4/30/24

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Madrid Open Betting Picks: Tuesday 4/30/24

The tennis clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Madrid Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Madrid Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Tuesday's matches? Note that play begins at 5:00 am ET due to a six-hour time difference.

Madrid Open Best Bet

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Taylor Fritz

Hurkacz ML (+102)

While Hubert Hurkacz is a slight underdog to Taylor Fritz, it's possible it should be the other way around.

Historically, clay isn't the strongest surface for either individual, but Hurkacz is actually 8-1 on clay this season and even nabbed his first clay title (Estoril) earlier this month. His lone loss was to Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo, one of the best clay-court players on the ATP Tour (career 74% clay win rate).

Fritz is a solid 5-2 on clay this season and a dominating win over clay specialist Sebastian Baez (6-2, 6-3) in barely over an hour could be why he's favored. However, Baez entered the tournament on a four-match losing streak (one of which also came against Fritz), so he might not be the best barometer of Fritz's form.

Overall, the American has endured some inconsistent play himself lately, going 7-5 since late February, which includes three tournaments where he lost his opening match (Acapulco, Miami, and Monte Carlo). And while he did well in Munich before this event, losing the final to Jan-Lennard Struff, a player in his 30s who had previously never won a title, has to sting, too.

Fritz leads his head-to-head with Hurkacz 2-1, but two of those matches came back in 2019. Although Fritz did win the most recent meeting in 2023, it was a narrow 7-6, 7-6 win on hard courts, so Hurkacz's recent run on clay could give him the upper hand in an even matchup.

Tennis Abstract's model views Hurkacz as the stronger player on this surface, projecting a 55% win probability. Massey Ratings views the matchup similarly, giving a 57% win probability.

Going by those percentages, that would suggest Hurkacz should be priced as roughly a -120 or -130 favorite, making him a potential value at plus odds.

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