FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 3/26/24

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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 3/26/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Tuesday's main slate on FanDuel features four games. For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

Luka Doncic ($12,800) -- Luka Doncic is playing in the slate's highest over/under (233) and tightest spread (Kings -1.0) against a Sacramento team he's previously dropped 54.5 and 71.5 FanDuel points (FPs) on. His salary is tough to build around, but there's no questioning who the top option is tonight. Our numberFire projections agree, pegging him for a slate-best 56.7 FPs.

D'Angelo Russell ($7,500) -- D'Angelo Russell returns from a one-game absence to take on a Bucks team that's given up the seventh-most FPPG to PGs -- per FantasyPros -- and whom DLo dropped 65.7 FPs against earlier this month. Oh, and LeBron James is doubtful tonight. According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Russell averaged 47.7 FPPG with a 26% usage rate in eight previous LeBron absences this season. Sign me up for the DLo experience.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,200) -- Let's double up on L.A. point guards! With DLo eligible at SG and LeBron dodging Milwaukee, we can confidently turn to Spencer Dinwiddie as a value play. Dinwiddie is coming off his best performance as a Laker, totaling 26 actual and 41.9 FanDuel points over the weekend. Although that was with D'Angelo Russell sidelined, Dinwiddie should still see a sizable workload sans James and Milwaukee soft on the perimeter. numberFire projects Dinwiddie for 30.8 FPs, making him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate (5.93 FPs per $1,000).

Others to Consider

De'Aaron Fox ($9,600) -- At salary, De'Aaron Fox is right there with Luka tonight. Fox isn't as consistently dominant as Doncic, but he has gone for 49 FPs in four of the last five games and already has a pair of 55-FP outings against Dallas this season. The Mavs have jumped to seventh in defensive rating over the last 10 games, but they've still been an advantageous matchup for guards this season. I'm more than fine saving salary with Fox, but I still want a piece of Dallas' 115.75 implied total elsewhere.

Keon Ellis ($5,000) -- Over the last eight games, Keon Ellis has averaged 28.2 minutes and 23.5 FPPG, making six starts for the injured Kevin Huerter. Though his production hasn't been very consistent, there's upside in someone playing this much for the NBA's ninth-highest scoring offense. Playing in the slate's top game environment against a Dallas D that's surrendered the sixth-most FPPG to SGs bodes well for Ellis' fantasy prospects tonight.

Wings

Top Plays

Jimmy Butler ($8,700) -- I'm largely fading the high-salaried wings tonight, but Jimmy Butler is at least interesting at $8.7K. Butler has been quiet the last few weeks, exceeding 40 FPs just once in his last six games. Still, Miami is banged up, and the Warriors have allowed the eighth-most FPPG to SFs over their last 15 games. Expect a heavy workload in a tight game -- though a slate-low 217.5 over/under does limit his upside relative to the other stars.

Keegan Murray ($6,400) -- Keegan Murray is prone to inconsistencies, but he appears to be heating up. The sharpshooter is coming off a pair of 38-FP outings and has now eclipsed 35 FPs in four of seven games with Kevin Huerter out of the lineup. He fared well in two previous matchups with Dallas (scoring 28.6 and 31.8 FPs), so we can turn to him as a mid-range option tonight. On a small slate, I'm loading up on the top game environment.

Herbert Jones ($5,800) -- There's no Brandon Ingram for the Pels tonight, meaning we can look at Herbert Jones as a salary-saver. In eight previous games without Ingram, Herb has averaged 33.4 minutes and 29.8 FPPG -- up from 29.7 minutes and 24.4 FPPG with Ingram active. The Thunder aren't an ideal matchup, but Jones' ability to contribute more than just points keeps his fantasy value firmly intact.

Others to Consider

Trey Murphy ($6,700) -- Trey Murphy III hasn't quite taken off with Ingram out, but he has started the last two games. Despite a 1-for-12 shooting performance the last time out, Murphy still managed 34.6 FPs thanks to eight rebounds and five combined steals and blocks. With at least 25 FPs in six straight games, Murphy's floor is clear. His ceiling remains a question mark against OKC's stout D, but the Thunder are first in pace over the last 15 games.

Rui Hachimura ($5,400) -- I'm not as high on Rui Hachimura as our projections are -- numberFire's model has Rui as the top point-per-dollar value at SF (27.7 FPs; 5.13 FPs per $1,000) -- but there's still a lot to like here with LeBron out. Rui's averaged 30.7 minutes and 27.3 FPs in nine prior games without James, yet we haven't seen what L.A.'s non-LeBron rotation looks like with Spencer Dinwiddie in town. While Milwaukee is a tough matchup for wings, Rui's floor is rock-solid.

Bigs

Top Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700) -- For me, building a lineup tonight starts at PF/C. Three absolute studs are salaried over $10.5K, but I'm leaning Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak is coming off a 30-point, 19-rebound effort against Oklahoma City and should feast against a soft L.A. interior. The Lakers have surrendered the fifth-most FPPG to PFs and the fourth-most to Cs over the last 15 games, ranking 24th in rebound rate and allowing the 5th-most points in the paint over that stretch. Giannis faced the Lakers two weeks ago, going for 70.8 FPs thanks to 34 points, 14 rebounds, and 12 assists. His points + rebounds + assists prop is set at 48.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Daniel Gafford ($6,900) -- Daniel Gafford is on an absolute tear right now, averaging 15.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks over his last 10 games. He's averaging 33.4 FPPG over that stretch and has notably gone for 41.9 and 54.7 FPs the last two games. Sacramento has been a tough matchup for centers, but they've notably given up the fourth-most FPPG to PFs over the last 15 games. That puts PJ Washington ($5,400) on the radar, too. Either Dallas big is a quality salary-saver given the high total.

Larry Nance ($4,800) -- I wish we could combine Jonas Valanciunas ($5,100) and Larry Nance Jr. into one fantasy player. The two have essentially split center responsibilities this month with Valanciunas averaging 19.1 minutes and 20.2 FPPG and Nance posting 22.6 minutes and 19.8 FPPG. Nance has been playing more (and better) of late, and he's eligible at both big spots, so he's my preferred choice here. However, considering the Thunder have surrendered the sixth-most FPPG to centers over their last 15 games, there's room for either to thrive as a value play. Per numberFire's projections, Valanciunas (25.1 FPs; 4.92 FPs per $1,000) is the top point-per-dollar value at center. Nance (22.9 FPs; 4.77 FPs per $1,000) isn't far behind at third.

Others to Consider

Domantas Sabonis ($10,900) -- Domantas Sabonis just set the record for the most consecutive double-doubles, notching his 54th straight on Monday. With Dallas down at 20th in rebound rate and 25th in defensive rating since the All-Star break, he could very well make that 55 straight tonight. Sabonis carries similar upside as Giannis, though he comes at a slightly lower salary.

Naji Marshall ($5,000) -- Naji Marshall has quietly averaged 20.8 minutes per game since the All-Star break, and he's notched a pair of 25-FP games with Brandon Ingram out. There's not a ton of upside against the Thunder's fifth-rated defense on deck, but Marshall's growing role is intriguing on a slate lacking value bigs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.