3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/29/24

Riley Thomas•_riley8

17d

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Yariel Rodriguez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)

The Kansas City Royals against the Toronto Blue Jays features a pair of rookie starting pitchers going head-to-head. For the Royals, Alec Marsh hit the injured list last week, and his spot has been filled by rookie Jonathan Bowlan. For the Jays, Yariel Rodriguez is getting the ball.

Which rookie should we lean into for strikeout props on Monday? We have very little to go on for Bowlan as he pitched for only three innings last season. At least we've gotten three starts from Rodriguez this season.

In three outings, Rodriguez has 15 strikeouts while carrying a 28.8% strikeout percentage (K%) -- which is in the 80th percentile. However, this is still a small sample size for a rookie, and he's going against a tough offense to strike out as Kansas City has the second-lowest K% in baseball while averaging only 6.8 strikeouts per game (second-fewest).

Rodriguez has yet to make deep starts, providing more evidence for the under. He's yet to reach the fifth inning in a start and failed to total at least 70 pitches in two of three appearances.

FanDuel's projections are also forecasting 4.14 strikeouts for Rodriguez. Considering Rodriguez's brief appearances and the Royals' ability to avoid Ks, give me the under.

Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-138)

FanDuel's projections have Joe Ryan with the highest strikeout total for today at 6.78. This about spot on with Ryan's line of 6.5 pucnhouts.

The Minnesota Twins' hurler impresses in nearly every strikeout stat. Ryan is in the 92nd percentile of K%, 90th percentile of chase percentage, and 74th percentile of whiff rate. This isn't far off of his stellar numbers from 2023 (88th percentile in both K% and chase rate).

Ryan has reached seven strikeouts and pitched for at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Plus, he's facing one of the worst offenses in baseball tonight. The Chicago White Sox have the second-worst mark in numberFire's power rankings.

After finishing with the 12th-highest K% last season, the White Sox have gotten worse in this category. Chicago currently carries the seventh-highest K% in the league. The Sox total the fewest runs in baseball paired with the second-lowest batting average. Chicago's batting order has simply been a mess.

Ryan has to be licking his chops, preparing for another high-strikeout outing. I won't think too hard about this pick. Ryan is carrying elite strikeout stats, and the White Sox are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball while holding a high K%. Going over 6.5 strikeouts looks likely for Ryan.

Ryan Pepiot Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Ryan Pepiot has flourished in his first season with the Tampa Bay Rays. He ranks in the 77th percentile of K% and 88th percentile of whiff percentage. He's reached six Ks in three of his last four starts and is averaging 9.3 strikeouts per appearance over the previous four outings.

The Milwaukee Brewers have the 12th-highest K% and are totaling 10.0 strikeouts per game over the last four games. This certainly provides comfort for Pepiot going over 5.5 strikeouts.

Of course, making deep starts also matters when targeting strikeouts props. Pepiot has pitched for at least six innings in three of the last four. One of Pepiot's weaknesses has been hard-hit percentage (bottom 28%). However, Milwaukee has the 14th-lowest hard-hit percentage and is tied for the 4th-highest ground-ball percentage. This once again plays into Pepiot's hands as he is in the bottom 8% of ground-ball percentage.

The Brewers are not big threats to take advantage of Pepiot's weaknesses. Milwaukee also has some high strikeout numbers in recent contests. I like the over for the Rays' starter.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.