THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Betting Picks and Key Stats

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THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Betting Picks and Key Stats

Following Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry's team victory at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, the PGA Tour returns to Texas at TPC Craig Ranch for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

Here's all you need to know for this week’s event.

TPC Craig Ranch Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

Par: 71
Distance: 7,414
Average Fairway Width: 37.1 yards (71st of 86 courses)
Average Green Size: 6,778 square feet
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 11.5
Recent Winning Scores: -23, -26, -25
Recent Cut Lines: -4, -5, -6

TPC Craig Ranch Course Key Stats

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Picks to Target

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Si Woo Kim

To Win (+1600)
To Finish Top 10 (+200)

Si Woo Kim has the second-best win odds in the field, behind only Jordan Speith (+1400). Kim's game has some clear strengths and weaknesses, which sync up well with TPC Craig Ranch. He is first in the field in strokes gained: tee to green, fifth in total strokes gained, eighth in strokes gained: around the green, and 23rd in strokes gained: approach. He is second in the field in driving accuracy and his Birdie or Better rate (24.16%) ranks 34th on tour.

His weaknesses are his driving distance (117th) and his putting (122nd in strokes gained: putting). His lack of distance won't hurt him as much this week as he finished T2 here last year despite losing 11.1 yards per drive compared to the field. His putting remains a concern, but he gained +0.75 strokes per round here in 2023 -- his second-best performance with the flat stick in his last 25 starts. According to datagolf, TPC Craig Ranch ranks as the fifth-easiest course for putts between 5-15 feet and the third-easiest for putts outside 15 feet.

Alex Noren

To Win (+2200)
To Finish Top 10 (+270)

Alex Noren leads the field this week in total strokes gained. He is 11th in strokes gained: tee to green, 15th in strokes gained: approach, and 27th in strokes gained: putting. The weakness in his game is his play off the tee, specifically his distance. He is 115th in the field in driving distance but 21st in accuracy. That weakness should be downplayed at TPC Craig Ranch.

Noren enters this week in solid form with four top-20 finishes, including one top-10, in his last five events. He has gained strokes on approach in eight of his last nine events with shotlink data and gained strokes putting in five of his last six. In his two appearances at this course, he finished T21 (2021) and T12 (2022) and putted well in both. Noren's Birdie or Better rate (21.43%) is slightly below the tour average (22.08%), but he has the overall game to compete this week.

Tom Hoge

To Win (+2800)
To Finish Top 10 (+300)

Tom Hoge checks some key boxes this week. He one of only two golfers in the field that rank inside the top 10 in both strokes gained: putting (first) and strokes gained: approach (eighth). Like Noren, he is more accurate off the tee (67th) than long (100th), but he has been converting birdies at a higher rate. Hoge is sixth on the PGA Tour this season in Birdie or Better rate (26.54%) -- the highest rate in the field this week. Hoge missed the cut at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans team event last week, but he had three top 20 finishes in his four events prior to that. He is second in the field this week in total strokes gained.

Mackenzie Hughes

To Win (+4000)
To Finish Top 10 (+400)
To Finish Top 20 (+200)

Mackenzie Hughes enter this week in decent form, with finishes of T39, T14, and T3 in his last three events. He is 11th in the field in strokes gained: putting, first in strokes gained: around the greens, and 10th in total strokes gained. He ranks 71st in strokes gained: approach but has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five events. He missed the cut at his debut at this event in 2022 but improved to a T14 finish last year despite losing 0.60 strokes per round on approach. Over his last three events, he's gained +1.12, +0.16, and +2.41 strokes per round with the flat stick. If he can have an average week with his approach shots, he can push for a top-10 finish.

Mark Hubbard

To Finish Top 10 (+500)
To Finish Top 20 (+240)

Mark Hubbard is coming off a third-place finish at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans team event. He has finished T34 (2021) and T32 (2022) in his last two appearances at TPC Craig Ranch. He is 17th in the field in total strokes gained, 13th in strokes gained: approach, and 24th in strokes gained: tee to green. His Birdie or Better rate (24.94%) is 17th on Tour, and he ranks inside the top 60 in both stokes gained: putting (58th) and strokes gained: around the green (49th).

Chandler Phillips

To Finish Top 10 (+1200)
To Finish Top 20 (+500)

Chandler Phillips is enjoying a solid rookie season on the PGA Tour. He has two top-25 finishes and a top-5 finish in 11 individual events and is gaining strokes in every category except off the tee. He is 28th in the field in total strokes gained, 10th in strokes gained: approach, and 41st in strokes gained: putting. He is 61st on the Tour in Birdie or Better rate (23.23%) and is coming off a T19 finish at last week's team event.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.