Madrid Open Betting Picks: Friday 5/3/24

Tennis' clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Madrid Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Madrid Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Friday's matches?

Madrid Open Best Bet

Taylor Fritz vs. Andrey Rublev

Rublev -1.5 Games (-126)

As of this writing, we're still waiting on the other men's semifinal to be determined, but we can look ahead to this one between Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev.

It's Rublev who immediately grabs our attention after defeating Carlos Alcaraz (4-6, 6-3, 6-2) in the previous round. It's no secret that Alcaraz is an absolute monster on clay (80% career win rate), and he was going for his third straight Madrid Open title before the loss. It also broke a 14-match win streak at Madrid for Alcaraz.

This deep tournament run has been a significant turn of events for Rublev, who entered having lost four matches in a row. But he's now won four straight to get to these semifinals, beating three top-30 opponents along the way. The only set he's dropped came in the aforementioned Alcaraz match.

Rublev has enjoyed plenty of success on clay courts previously, winning five career clay titles, which most notably includes two Masters 1000 titles at Monte Carlo. He owns a rock-solid 65% career win rate on clay, and Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings place him in the ATP Tour's top 10 on the surface.

Fritz has had his share of inconsistencies this season, too, but he has also played quite well this tournament with wins over highly-ranked players Sebastian Baez (world No. 19), Hubert Hurkacz (9), and Francisco Cerundolo (22). He's also lost just one set, and he's faced only four break points over four matches.

However, an in-form Rublev will be a tough test for the American, who has a solid if unspectacular 55% career win rate on clay and has never won a title on the surface. While Fritz leads their head-to-head 5-3, the two split their matches in 2023, and Rublev was victorious in their clay meeting -- the only time they've ever played on the surface.

Tennis Abstract's model projects Rublev to win 60% of the time, and the Russian's -162 moneyline odds closely align with that (62% implied win probability). Given how well both have played, this should be a competitive one, but Rublev's clay history suggests he should come out on top, and this 1.5-game spread won't be a tough cover even if it goes to a final set.

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