FanDuel MLB DFS Pitching Primer for Tuesday 5/7/24

Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.

While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.

Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's main slate.

All betting references come from the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Pitcher Picks

Top Options

Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves, ($10,400)

Reynaldo Lopez ($10,400) is coming off his worst start of the season. That makes it sound a lot worse than it was, as he still had seven strikeouts through five innings and allowed just three earned runs.

That speaks to how good Lopez has been this season. He has a 27.0% strikeout rate and at least six strikeouts in all but one of his starts. The transition to being a full-time starting pitcher hasn't hurt him, as he has a 3.53 SIERA and a 3.56 xFIP.

The Atlanta Braves will take on the Boston Red Sox tonight. Boston strikes out at the seventh-highest rate against righties this season (24.3%).

Boston's lineup can be dangerous, but they only have an implied team total of 3.72 runs, so the oddsmakers definitely seem to believe in Lopez tonight.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers ($10,200)

The Los Angeles Dodgers perhaps have a new ace, as Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,200) has pitched excellently in his first season in MLB.

Yamamoto has at least 40 FanDuel points in his last three starts. He's definitely figured out how to pitch in the majors with his 30.0% strikeout rate. He also has a 2.73 xFIP and 2.83 SIERA.

Tonight, he'll face the Miami Marlins at home. Miami has the fifth-worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. They also carry tonight's lowest implied team total at just 2.88 runs.

Yoshinobu is projected for the most points by FanDuel Research's model. He has only the third-highest salary among starting pitchers, so that makes him the top play on the board tonight.

Next Men Up

Jose Butto, New York Mets, ($8,900)

Considering he barely made the rotation after spring training, Jose Butto ($8,900) has been successful this season.

Butto has a 27.4% strikeout rate in his first season in the big leagues. His 12.7 swinging-strike rate makes it look fairly sustainable. He's allowed just a 6.2% barrel rate, too.

On Tuesday, he will face the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are not a dangerous team against righties with just a 98 wRC+. They also have a 24.5% strikeout rate, the sixth-highest rate against righties.

Butto is an option I'd consider below the very top-end arms on this slate.

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins ($8,500)

Bailey Ober ($8,500) has definitely had his highs and lows this season. He's had starts varying from -17 FanDuel points all the way up to 53.

Ober has a 4.55 ERA that may not inspire a lot of confidence, but his advanced numbers are much better. He has a 3.93 SIERA and a 4.10 xFIP to go along with a decent 22.4% strikeout rate, so he's having a pretty good season.

He'll have a great chance of striking out a lot of hitters tonight. He'll face the Seattle Mariners, who strike out the most against righties this season at a 29.5% clip. They also have just a 96 wRC+ versus RHP.

For this salary, taking a chance on Ober makes a good amount of sense.

Value of the Day

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals ($7,300)

Miles Mikolas ($7,300) isn't the most exciting option, but he does have a nice salary tonight.

Mikolas won't wow you with strikeout numbers -- in fact they are quite lackluster. But with a 3.97 xFIP, he is pitching reasonably enough to consider rostering.

The Cardinals are favored over the Mets tonight. If Mikolas can pick up the win, he'll likely pay off this salary.

I might use Mikolas in lineups where I want to load up on bats.

Quick Mound Visits

Shota Imanaga ($10,600) has been excellent this season, but the San Diego Padres strike out just 15.7% against lefties.

Luis Gil ($8,700) is in a similar situation against the Houston Astros, as they strike out just 15.3% of the time against righties. They also have a 120 wRC+, the fifth-best in the majors.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.