3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Tuesday 5/7/24

Riley Thomas•_riley8

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The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Jose Berrios Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)

After logging at least six strikeouts in four of his first five starts of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays' Jose Berrios has come back to Earth with only four Ks over his previous two starts.

This drop-off was somewhat expected as Berrios finished among the bottom half in strikeout percentage (K%) in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. He now sits in the bottom 23% in the category.

Berrios has heavily leaned on his slurve and sinker as they both account for over 34.0% of his pitches. The next-most used pitch is his four-seam fastball at 13.5%. His slurve carrying a 34.6% usage rate could cause issues against the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday.

Philadelphia has found plenty of success against curveballs and sliders, carrying top-four marks for runs above average against each pitch. Keep in mind a slurve is a hybrid pitch of a curveball and slider. If the Phillies are teeing off against curveballs and sliders, chances are they can also smack slurves.

While Philly did average 9.5 strikeouts per game in their previous series, I'm still not too worried for the under. This is inflated due to their 17 Ks on May 5th. The Phillies logged only 7.0 strikeouts per game in the other three games during this series. I'm still riding with the under for Berrios.

Luis Gil 7+ Strikeouts (+148)

The Houston Astros have been a pain to strike out with the lowest K% in baseball. The batting order will face the New York Yankees' Luis Gil tonight. Gil has flourished in the strikeout category, ranking in the 87th percentile of K% while averaging 6.7 strikeouts each start. Something has to give in this matchup.

I'm expecting Gil to continue his success even against a stubborn lineup. First off, this game will take place in Yankee Stadium, which is tied for the eighth-most strikeouts among the MLB's 30 stadiums. We've seen this directly impact Gil's totals as he's averaging 8.5 Ks at home compared to 5.8 strikeouts in road contests.

Let's also look at Gil's toolbox. He's mostly pitched four-seamers (59.3%) with changeups (23.6%) and sliders (17.1%) sprinkled in. After averaging a 20.9% usage rate for his changeup over his first three starts, Gil has increased his changeup usage to 25.9% over his previous three outings. This is the perfect storm, for Houston has the fourth-lowest runs above average against changeups.

Over 5.5 Ks for Gil is -140, but I'm looking for more. Why not take 7+ strikeouts (+148)? Gil has shined in Yankee Stadium and increasing his changeup usage comes at the perfect time for a matchup against the 'Stros.

Shoto Imanaga Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)

The Chicago Cubs acquired Shota Imanaga from the Nippon Professional League in the offseason. So far, the Japanese lefty has impressed, carrying a 3.03 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). The strikeout numbers are there too with Imanaga ranking in the 72nd percentile of K%.

Chicago's starter comes off back-to-back games with seven strikeouts. Reaching five Ks seems within reach.

The San Diego Padres have the fourth-lowest K% in the MLB. However, I believe Imanaga has a weapon that can get the job done for the over.

He has mostly relied on two pitches: a four-seamer and split-finger. His four-seam fastball has been impressive as it has 3.4 more inches of vertical movement and 1.6 more inches of horizontal movement than the league average. Imanaga has had no problem leaning into the tool, throwing a four-seamer for 58.3% of his pitches.

How does this relate to tonight's clash with the Padres? San Diego has the seventh-lowest runs above average against fastballs. Imanaga's four-seamer could be a big problem for the Padres, possibly leading to more strikeouts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.