3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 4/30/24

Annie Nader•@ANader33

21d

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Jalen Brunson Under 42.5 Pts + Ast (-115)

It's never fun to bet against a player like Jalen Brunson, but I think the market has had a pretty drastic overreaction on the line for his combined points and assists (PA) prop following a pair of huge games.

In Game 3 of this New York Knicks versus Philadelphia 76ers series, Brunson went for 52 PA. He followed this up in Game 4 with a walloping 57 PA.

Even still, he's averaging just 42.0 PA in this series, and I don't think it's realistic to expect another earth-shattering performance off the heels of a game where he took an unsustainable 34.0 field goal attempts.

In the regular season, Brunson averaged 35.4 PA per game. He recorded under 42.5 PA in 71.4% of contests. And if we check out only the games where Brunson played at least 30 minutes, he netted below 42.5 PA at a 68.5% clip. These -115 odds, meanwhile, imply just a 53.5% probability on the under.

Brunson's shot volume has been insane, especially in this past Sunday's game, but we can't rule out the possibility of a bigger-than-normal scoring night from a different Knick. Plus, it's apt to keep in mind that this game features just a 203.0-point over/under.

FanDuel Research's projections are giving Brunson a good shake. They expect him to score 30.0 points and dish out 7.6 dimes, but this still amounts to only 37.6 PA.

Miles McBride Over 8.5 Points (-111)

As we look for Brunson to come back down to earth, let's target Miles McBride to bring a spark off the bench.

With Bojan Bogdanovic (knee) ruled out and Mitchell Robinson (ankle) coming in with a questionable designation, McBride will play a huge role off the bench for New York. In three out of four games in this series, only three bench players saw floor time, so the Knicks are riding with a pretty small rotation.

McBride is averaging 12.8 points in this series and scored over 8.5 points in three out of four games, missing by the hook on one instance. He's also been playing 24.5 minutes per game, but we should see those minutes increase with Bogdanovic out.

But I'm satisfied enough with McBride's average of 24.5 minutes per game. In the regular season, he played at least 20 minutes in 27 contests. In those 27 games, he averaged a whopping 14.9 points and eclipsed 8.5 points in 22 out of 27 games.

Including the playoffs, he's clearing this prop at an 83.3% clip in contests where he's logged at least 20 minutes. That hit rate would translate to -500 odds, so I'm shocked we can get this prop at -111 odds.

Our projections have him set to score 11.0 points off of 27.43 minutes in this one. I'd consider giving Miles McBride To Score 10+ Points (+115) and To Score 15+ Points (+600) a shake, too.

Patrick Beverley Over 18.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-118)

The Milwaukee Bucks are in treacherous territory.

Not only do they face elimination this evening, as the Indiana Pacers hold a 3-1 series lead, but any attempt to save their season will have to be done without Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Will Patrick Beverley emerge as Milwaukee's savior? No, probably not. But I still like his chances to exceed 18.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) tonight.

Pat Bev recorded 14.0 PRA in Game 4, but he played just 21 minutes after being forced to the locker room due to an oblique injury. He was averaging 37.6 minutes in the three games prior, while our projections anticipate him to log 34.46 minutes in Game 5.

Beverley averages 0.59 PRA per minute for the Bucks, so a 34.46-minute night would theoretically translate to 20.3 PRA. However, this doesn't even account for the absences of both Dame and Giannis.

He's averaging 22.6 PRA per 36 minutes when Dame is off the court and 23.4 PRA per 36 minutes when both Dame and Giannis are off the floor.

We know Indiana's quick pace and lax defense helps opposing players rack up stats -- the Pacers let up the 4th-most points, 8th-most rebounds, and 11th-most assists to guards per game this season.

By virtue of being one of three remaining Milwaukee starters, Bev should be primed to clear this number in a friendly game environment. Our projections have him down for 19.7 PRA.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.