Mavericks vs. Thunder: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 2

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Mavericks vs. Thunder: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 2

The Dallas Mavericks attempt to even the series against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2 tonight.

Oklahoma City cruised to a 117-95 victory in Game 1, outscoring Dallas by 12 in the fourth quarter to seal the win.

Ahead of Game 2, the Thunder boast -245 odds to win the series. The Mavs are +194 underdogs.

OKC now sports +210 odds to win the Western Conference and +650 odds to win the NBA Championship. Dallas is +600 to win the West and +1800 to win the title.

Let's dive into the odds and break down the matchup for Mavericks-Thunder Game 2.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Mavericks-Thunder Betting Odds

Date and Time: May 9th at 9:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Thunder -5 (-110)

Total: 218.5

Moneyline:

Mavericks: +168
Thunder: -200

Mavericks vs. Thunder Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

Dallas Mavericks:
- nERD: 57.1 (12th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
- Pace: 100.4 (8th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34
Oklahoma City Thunder:
- nERD: 73.1 (2nd)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 118.3 (3rd)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.5 (4th)
- Pace: 100.8 (5th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 46-5-1

Mavericks vs. Thunder Best Bet

Thunder -5 (-110)

The Thunder dominated Game 1. There's no sugarcoating it.

After they were tied at the end of the first, OKC outscored Dallas in all three quarters the rest of the way.

They held the Mavs to 39.3% shooting overall and limited them to 12-of-35 from beyond the arc.

That included 6-of-19 shooting from Luka Doncic, who got to experience the Luguentz Dort "Dorture Chamber" firsthand. When defended by Dort, Luka shot just 4-of-9 and turned the ball over three times. That came on the heels of Dort's Round 1 masterclass against Brandon Ingram in which the 20.8-point-per-game scorer averaged a mere 14.3 points on 34.5% shooting across four games.

By the end, Dort and the Thunder held Doncic to 19 points, his fewest in a playoff game since the 2020 bubble.

Don't expect that lockdown defense to stop anytime soon.

We know Luka will get his eventually. But even if he can flip the script this time out, Oklahoma City appears to have an edge inside.

The Thunder outrebounded the Mavs by 13 in Game 1. Dallas surrendered 16 offensive rebounds and was outscored by 8 in the paint. That's been an issue for the Mavericks, even during their torrid 18-9 post-All-Star break stretch. Over their final 27 games, Dallas ranked just 23rd in total rebound rate. For the season, they gave up the 10th most offensive rebounds and seventh most second-chance points per game.

If Dallas couldn't control the interior when Daniel Gafford racked up 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 blocks, I'm skeptical they'll ever find an edge down low this series.

But perhaps the biggest thing OKC has going for them tonight, specifically, is that they didn't even have their best performance in Game 1. Sure, they won by 22 and shot a blistering 45.7% from three, but their starting five left a lot of points on the board.

Chet Holmgren was a solid 8-of-16 from the field, but no other starter sniffed 50% shooting. Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort combined to go 3-of-13, while Jalen Williams had only 9 points up until the fourth quarter. He still finished just 6-of-15 from the floor.

Yes, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went for 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists, but he shot under 50%, too. His 8-of-19 performance was supplemented by an 11-of-13 night from the free-throw line. The shots will fall eventually, and we know the freebies will be there.

I don't expect the Thunder to keep Luka and Kyrie Irving quiet the whole series, but they can certainly do enough to cover as 5.0-point home favorites. We're talking about a team with the second-best home record (33-8) in the NBA, after all.

numberFire's model gives Oklahoma City the edge tonight, too. The model projects the Thunder to win by 9.1 tonight, in turn covering the spread.

I'll back the model here and trust the Thunder defense to contain the Mavericks' offense for at least one more game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.