3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 5/9/24

Annie Nader•@ANader33

11d

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Jaylen Brown Under 25.5 Points (-118)

Jaylen Brown had a first-quarter outburst in Game 1 of the Boston Celtics versus Cleveland Cavaliers series, scoring 15 points in the first eight minutes of play.

I don't anticipate Brown to find that degree of scoring success this time around, especially given that Jayson Tatum scored only 18 points on Tuesday.

In the regular season, Brown averaged 23.0 points per game. In contests where he played at least 30 minutes, he netted 24.0 points per game and scored under 25.5 points at a 61.0% rate.

He's been more or less the same in the postseason. In the playoffs, he's averaging 24.3 points and scored under 25.5 points in four out of six games.

Brown could see some negative regression in his shooting numbers, too. In the regular season, he owned a 49.9% FG% and a 35.4% 3P%, but in the playoffs, he's rocking with a 54.5% FG% and a 38.2% 3P%.

Neither Cleveland (24th in pace) nor Boston (19th) play at a particularly fast speed while each comes in as a top-7 defense.

I like Brown's chances to go under 25.5 points based on the game environment (Boston is favored by 13.5 points) and the aforementioned hit rates at this line. Add in the possibility of negative shooting regression and Tatum having a huge night, and I'm a bit more convinced.

FanDuel Research's projections anticipate Brown to score 24.2 points tonight.

Darius Garland Over 5.5 Assists (+112)

I think the market is giving us a pretty fair shake on Darius Garland's assist prop.

In the regular season, Garland averaged 6.5 assists per game. Though he's averaging just 5.4 assists in the playoffs, seven out of eight of his postseason games have come against the Orlando Magic.

The Magic not only played at the fourth-slowest pace and owned the league's third-best defense, but they also let up the fewest assists per game. It's no wonder why Garland has seen a bit of a drop-off in his dime numbers.

Boston, meanwhile, let up the sixth-most assists to guards during the regular season. They've also given up the fourth-most assists (among 16 playoff teams) per game to this position despite holding teams to the second-fewest points, so they're a super solid matchup for Garland.

Beyond a nice matchup, it's easy to be intrigued by these +112 odds.

Garland is averaging 6.8 assists in games where he has played at least 30 minutes. For context, he is playing 34.4 minutes per night in the postseason.

In that 30-plus-minute split, Garland exceeded 5.5 assists at a 64.7% rate, which would translate to -184 odds. However, these +112 odds imply just a 47.2% probability.

Our projections have him slated to dish out 6.3 dimes in this one.

Kyrie Irving Over 28.5 Pts + Ast (-106)

Kyrie Irving recorded 23 combined points and assists (PA) in Game 1 despite the Oklahoma City Thunder holding the Dallas Mavericks to just 95 points.

Dallas' offense can't do much worse than Tuesday's showing, so let's target Irving in this bounce-back spot.

In the regular season, Irving averaged 30.8 PA per game. He's kept steady with that number in the playoffs, netting 30.0 PA per contest.

In games where Irving has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 31.3 PA and is clearing 28.5 PA at a 64.3% rate.

If we adjust this split to only account for games that featured a 5.0-point spread or closer and a 218.0 over/under or higher -- OKC is favored by 5.0 points with a 218.0 O/U -- Irving surpassed 28.5 PA at a 72.7% clip (24 out of 33 contests).

These -106 odds, meanwhile, suggest just a 51.5% probability.

Oklahoma City surrendered the most points and the most assists to guards per game in the regular season. In the postseason, they are letting up the third-most points and the third-most assists to this position, too.

Irving averaged a towering 40.5 PA (48 and 33 PA performances) in two games against OKC in the regular season, and I have faith that he can find his footing tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.