Soccer Picks

By Kurt Boyer
Updated: sbk/soccer-picks 

UEFA Champions League: Best Early Picks on Opening Q-Final Legs 

Real Madrid vs Manchester City (Tuesday, April 9) 

The bridesmaid's status in FanDuel Sportsbook's championship odds is a good indicator of a defending championship team's top rival. For example, Liverpool is currently second to Manchester City in bets to win the English Premier League, showing that speculators think Reds are Man City's chief nemesis in the final chase, even though the head-to-head league battles between those clubs are over for the cycle. 

Currently, it's Arsenal F.C. that owns second place in FanDuel's odds to win the 2023-24 UEFA Champions League, which not only demonstrates that Manchester City's biggest threat to the crown could come from a domestic contemporary, but that users think 3 teams from the Premiership possess the quality to win a European crown in 2024. Liverpool would be at least a 5-to-1 pick alongside Arsenal F.C. if still in contention internationally. 

It’s still possible Real Madrid, not Arsenal, is the most dangerous foe Manchester City F.C. could face in the quarter-finals, or indeed, the UEFA Champions League this season. It's just about impossible to have a better Champions League campaign than Los Blancos have in 2023-24, with a 7-1-0 record in 8 appearances and a Round-of-16 win over RB Leipzig that was a bit easier than the 2-1 aggregate score makes it out to be. 

Real Madrid has scored 8 goals in 2 league matches since finishing off Red Bulls, 3 of them off the boot of the Brazil National Team striker Vini Jr. Ukrainian GK Andriy Lunin is also turning into a sensation before our eyes. Man City's attack, and its likely shots-on-target total, will make Lunin a favorite Fantasy Soccer draft pick.

Real Madrid has done more than enough to earn tight odds against Manchester City for April 9th's opening leg. Los Blancos’ (+185) money-line still casts the club as underdog against Sky Blues' (+145) odds to win, but we know from observing Premier League odds each weekend that Manchester City opponents almost never have more than 2-to-1 money-line betting odds to win any critical kickoff. 

It’s tempting to get in on the Real Madrid betting while the odds sit at 2-to-1. Though it's hard to predict the relative health of the 2 dynasty teams' lineups on April 9th until closer to match day, it's undeniable that Man City will be the far busier club leading up to the opening quarter-final tie. In fact, the schedule almost seems tailor-made to help Los Blancos tune up for the Champions League Q-Final showdown while Manchester City F.C.  faces the peril of 3 high-pressure bouts in a week, including March 31st's incomparably big match with Arsenal Football Club, followed by another EPL tie with Crystal Palace just 3 days prior to the Champions League kickoff in Madrid. Meanwhile, the slight underdogs are on a break from La Liga that will essentially last until 4/9, with the exception of a lone contest against Lions of Athletic Club simultaneous to the Arsenal-at-Manchester City date. While Sky Blues cope with pressure, a nice domestic lead buoys Los Blancos.

Pick: Real Madrid (+185) 

Arsenal F.C. vs Bayern Munich (Tuesday, April 9)

There is a substantial history of Bayern Munich being the bane, the bugaboo, and the bummer for Arsenal's hopes in the UEFA Champions League. The only difference now is that as a stronger round-robin contender, Arsenal F.C. has managed to get into the quarter-finals instead of the knockout round against Germany's richest team. 

In the middle-to-late 2010s, the joke among Gunners supporters went something like: "The sun rises east to west, Guinness is a strong beer, the taxman comes right on time ... and the Champions League Round of 16 will have an Arsenal vs Bayern tie in it.” 

How can Arsenal avoid getting the "Death, Taxes, and Bayern Munich" blues this time around? According to FanDuel, there are plenty of bullets in the arsenal. The sportsbook is offering odds that enshrine Gunners as the (+100) or 1-to-1 money-line favorites over Bavarians of Bayern Munich (+260) in an opening quarter-final leg at Emirates Stadium on 4/9. Arsenal's goals have been coming in bunches, whether or not the team's superstars are playing against a FIFA-level back-line corps or not, as demonstrated by Gunners scoring more times against Liverpool than Nottingham Forest in back-to-back Premier League matches, and then scoring twice as many times against Newcastle United in one appearance than against FC Porto in combined UEFA legs. 

However, it's important to note that Arsenal is getting the goals it needs to win the occasional tight, frustrating fixture, such as the EPL winner scored from Kai Havertz with less than 10 minutes to go against Brentford. 

Brentford protested Havertz shouldn't have been left manning the pitch after a potential red-card dive in the box, but as has been the case at almost every juncture this season, Gunners got the 3 points in the bank. Such good breaks happen to teams who are drawing a dozen fouls per game, and leading the EPL in shots-on-target. 

Under typical circumstances, Arsenal couldn't nearly have the shortest line-to-win a UEFA quarter-final of any team in the round. But this isn't another typical booking with Bayern. We have noticed this soccer cycle that a slumping foe can be even better for a club's odds than a hot streak going into the match. Harry Kane is healthy and scoring hat tricks, and yet Bavarians seem destined to lose the Bundesliga race for the first time in ages. FanDuel sharks with no special proclivity to make picks on EPL teams might argue that Bayern's game-plan scenario for April 9th is better than its improving form, since if Bavarians are officially losing out to Leverkusen by mid-April, then manager Thomas Tuchel can put everything he's got into that UEFA push. Bayern could also get a great emotional boost if the squad happens to creep up on Company's Eleven in the German race by then.

Pick: Bayern Munich and Draw (Double Chance) (-130) 

Paris Saint-Germain vs F.C. Barcelona (Wednesday, April 10)

It’s expected form for UEFA's hype ministers to try to make every European title bracket into a headline story. Last week's official Champions League press release bragged that the 2023-24 quarter-final draw "came with a big dose of surprises, drama, and intrigue!" 

But did it really? Or is that just what they feel like they're supposed to say, each and every time? 

FanDuel's odds on a European title aren't really affected by this year's quarter-final draw, or any "intrigue" within it, due to the strength of the field. Manchester City, the defending champion, is up against a real titan in Real Madrid; however, Sky Blues are about the same 1.5-to-1 championship picks that we'd expect them to be at this juncture. Atlético Madrid has the unproven Borussia Dortmund for an opponent, but Mattress Makers are still lying down near the bottom of the championship odds totem pole at the sportsbook. 

More examples can be found within the teams taking April 10th's kickoff in Paris. PSG's odds to win the Champions League are at the same dark-horse style (+750) betting price as usual. Barcelona's 10-to-1 market could be considered an insult in that it doesn't give FCB a better-than-average chance to surpass the 7 other clubs in the field, but it's also the most optimistic FanDuel futures line you can imagine for a team standing 11 points behind in La Liga. Paris Saint-Germain's (+100) money-line odds to take an aggregate-goal lead over Barca in the opening quarter-final tie do not exceed the gambling prices on Arsenal to overcome Bayern Munich. 

Barcelona's relatively paltry (+250) odds to win are based on the plain fact that defending Kylian Mbappé is hardest on his home grounds, however temporary they prove to be, harder than reading the continuous buzz about his transfer. Lewandowski's a fabulous counter for FCB manager Xavi, but the pair of thus-far legendary strikers' presence together on the grounds leads to another betting angle for wary punters. 

PSG-Barcelona goal-total odds are making things more interesting, with markets like Over (2.5) (-142) priced more cautiously than usual for a potentially wide-open tie with attackers like Mbappé performing in it. Barca's recent ledger has been full of tight, low-scoring match reports, such as the 1-1 opening knockout leg with Napoli, and a Sunday snoozer with Athletic Club in which the teams combined for 25 fouls and a dismal 4 shots on-target while each posted half-earned clean sheets on the defensive end. But a sunny analysis of Barca's back line overlooks both the Spanish club's overall form on the season and the Ter Stegen-led group's failure to live up to the "Berlin Wall" nickname against La Liga and UEFA's highest-scoring elites. Barcelona has allowed more goals this season than blue-collar La Liga squads like Las Palmas. 

The consecutive clean sheets of late winter did as much to calm supporters' fears about Barca's tackling as the renewed presence of previously injured goalkeeper Stegen. The GK had returned to action, though, when Barcelona played in a slap-dash 3-3 draw against the Spanish La Liga relegation candidate Grenada. Stegen was also leading the Barcelona back-line when Shakhtar Donetsk scored goals on 2 of its first 4 shots during back-to-back Champions League Group Stage meetings last fall. While the team's goals-against statistics went starkly up and then down with Stegen's injury and recovery, the ugly number of FCB goals-allowed when he's not bailing them out is a concerning stat for big wagers. 

Barca will need multiple goals to beat opponents like PSG, and Xavi isn't as likely to be as cool-headed as Tuchel if his attacks aren't clicking. We surmise that if 2 active Premier League or MLS strikers as iconic as Lewandowski and Mbappé were playing in what could be a rollicking, fast-paced opening leg to begin with, then the above Over/Under odds would appear more like the crazy O/U lines found on a Leeds versus Leicester City battle. 

Pick: Over (2.5) (-142) 

Atlético Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund (Wednesday, April 10)

The round's other Wednesday leg will likely be a battle of the bridesmaids featuring hopefuls who were lucky to draw each other as the potential path toward a semi-final berth. Neither team has taken advantage of slumps from La Liga or Bundesliga big-shots to rise up the domestic table. In fact, Borussia Dortmund is now considered an also-ran from a Bundesliga championship POV. It's even a little sad that supporters waited so patiently, years and years on end, for domestic kingpins like Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, and Barcelona to show cracks in the armor. When those exact scenarios occurred by turns following COVID-19, the forever second-place teams of Europe fell significantly down the leaderboard. It may be now a pair of semi-final spoilers just waiting for the chance. 

It's time to throw those all-competitions themed UEFA and Premier League betting trends out the window, the angle that caused Manchester City's total goals markets to blast off toward Pluto after Erling Haaland scored 5 times in a recent FA Cup match. Once the Man City versus Liverpool showdown ended in a 1-1 draw, punters recognized once again that clubs prepare for different competitions in different ways, leading to disparate results and statistics. In the case of Dortmund and Atlético, each team has clearly made the UEFA Champions League race their first and foremost priority, content to play a "Tottenham" role on the homeland's table and qualify for the Champions League again with a placement.

Mattress Makers lost too many domestic league matches late last year to contend with Real Madrid in the race this spring, leading to the silver-lining scenario that Atlético Madrid has drawn in UEFA. But while that gnashing-of-teeth took place, Atlético was also invincible in the Champions League round-robin, with 4 victories and a Group championship to boot. 

On a similar thread, Mattress Makers phoned in the back leg of February's semi-final Copa del Rey battle, then lost another La Liga match 0-2 on March 9th. The club was obviously looking forward to hosting Inter Milan. With all hands on deck, the superior UEFA version of Atlético took the Inter Milan game into a tiebreaker situation and knocked out Inter. 

Despite losing a match in Group Stage, Dortmund prevailed with a first-place standing anyway. While the opening leg's visitors may be bound for a difficult points-chase for top-4 Bundesliga status against Leipzig and Frankfurt, it's plain to see that manager Edin Terzić is putting everything he's got into UEFA victories at the possible expense of weekend form. Dortmund was awful enough to give up 3 goals in a Bundesliga loss to underdog Hoffenheim, and sank even lower by taking a half-time red card against overmatched Werder, leading to an embarrassing 10-on-11 half and an eked-out 2-1 win. 

But that was Bundesliga. Concurrently, Terzić's side played its Round-of-16 matchup against PSV almost perfectly, allowing no opposing 11-on-11 goals, and scoring easily in the opening fray to dominate the back leg at home before eliminating PSV from the bracket. 

Given how similar the clubs' narratives are, why is Atlético drawing the shortest money-line of the round at (-115) odds to win? Speaking historically, the Spanish brand has clobbered Dortmund in such Champions League scenarios as this year's playoffs. Jadon Sancho, a hero's striker for Prussians in the Round of 16, may not be fit for the upcoming tie in Madrid. Dortmund's proposition odds to go without goals in the opening leg are at a fearful (+145) mark. Most of all, though, we suspect that FanDuel users got a dose of that Atlético crowd from the last round, at least on YouTube reels of the Inter Milan tiebreaker. It's a roar that you don't hear when Messi plays for celebs in Miami, and it could significantly dampen BVB's attack. 

Pick: Under (2.5) (-116)

Defending Columbus Crew Sneaks Up on Other MLS Picks 

Inter Miami won 2023's Leagues Cup on the back of epic performances from Lionel Messi. Then the icon suffered injury, was cautiously benched by a team that had already won a surprise championship on the season, and never played in the MLS Cup tournament that Columbus won by defeating Los Angeles Football Club in December's MLS Cup Final. 

However, betting odds on Inter Miami's 2024 championship chances show that our users expect Miami's elite, expensive new lineup to pay off in spades. Herons boast (+290) odds to win the MLS Cup, scarcely rivaled by Los Angeles F.C.'s runner-up line of (+500) odds. Defending champion Columbus has improved to 6-to-1 after starting the year 3-1-0. 

Our soccer betting menu's chief nod to Messi and Inter Miami's potential vulnerability in 2024 is Herons' "Supporters Shield Winner" odds of expensive 1-to-1 prices. Compare the league formats of Major League Soccer and other professional soccer leagues around the world, and you'll see why the longer-shot (+250) odds on Inter Miami winning 2024 MLS Cup honors are no accident. Supporters Shield titles are won in the "English Premier League" style, awarding the hardware to whichever MLS brand earns the most points in regular competition. The fact that no other MLS club can boast of a Golden Boot striker like Messi, performing in front of FIFA-worthy veterans across the midfield, is reason enough to make Miami an overwhelming favorite to win the year's W/D/L race. By contrast, an MLS Cup event is still a single-elimination casino of a format, and just as recently as 2016, Seattle survived an MLS Cup round via tiebreaker without earning a shot on goal. 

The New York Red Bulls are burgeoning (+1200) picks to win the 2024 MLS Cup title after sweeping Texas with victories over Houston and F.C. Dallas for a W/D/L record of 2-1-0.

Making Soccer Picks on Upcoming Competitions

Ready-made soccer predictions are hard to come by. Sometimes, they’re out-of-date before the sun sets. The goal of FanDuel’s soccer picks isn’t to send readers rushing to the retail counter to place bets right away. Instead, we’ll be looking at betting odds and “futures” predictions set to pay off in several weeks or months, suggesting a prediction or 2 that could become valuable assets for recreational and veteran sports gamblers.

Alternative Soccer Betting Lines at FanDuel

Unlike other types of sports betting, the #1 rule for making soccer picks is to narrow your focus onto a single betting market or category of betting markets. It’s hard to make a prediction for a single team’s week of three matches. But making soccer predictions on another schedule full of variables could be a fool’s errand.

If you’re set on gambling on 3 picks, placing 3 bets, and watching 3 outcomes, try keeping them 100% “game line” picks on games in the same league on the same day, perhaps an afternoon-evening of MLS or Liga MX.

The predictions capsules at the top of the page include soccer picks on futures odds or soccer odds that ask speculators for picks on potential champions and season-outcomes. Soccer picks based on futures betting does not involve making a prediction on a single match or a single round. A solid “futures” pick involves a grasp of the entire bracket obstacle course that a bettor’s predictions will face on the way to a 1st-place finish.

FanDuel Sportsbook offers 3-way moneyline sports betting on domestic and international soccer fixtures. Moneylines are based on $100 or $1.00 bets, offering a payoff in-multiple for “plus” odds and a $100 or $1 return on a given sum in a “minus” market. So, if Los Angeles FC is a (-125) favorite, $125 or $1.25 must be wagered to receive $100 or $1, respectively, if the Black and Gold wins.

Supporters whose prediction leads to a favorites’ pick will probably win, but they’re risking a “bad beat” if their “minus” odds picks lose. If the opposing Portland Timbers are at (+300) odds to win as an underdog, then bettors can win $300 on $100-wager underdog picks if Rose City prevails. Often, a successful Draw prediction pays-off at a comparable price.

Making Over/Under soccer picks at FanDuel involves making a prediction and choosing a market. The sportsbook offers a choice of (1 ½), (2 ½), and (3 ½) Over/Under or goal-total lines for every match, accompanied by moneyline-style pay off odds for each set of Over and Under picks. Sports bettors who see a clean sheet or a scoreless draw on the horizon can shoot for a big payout on Under (1 ½) odds. They may also trade a slimmer risk/reward ratio for a less-suspenseful viewing experience by choosing from U (2 ½) or U (3 ½) picks.

Making the Consensus Prediction on 3-Way Soccer Spreads

Unlike other sports betting options, FanDuel’s soccer spreads are not traditional 2-way markets that ask whether the hosts or visitors will “cover.” Instead, the bookmakers begin by making predictions on the favorite’s ultimate margin-of-victory, based on a round number like (-1), (-2), or (-3). FanDuel then handicaps payoff odds on the favorite-to-cover and underdog-to-cover, followed by putting a price tag on the center “Handicap Draw” prediction. What would be a “push” outcome in a 2-way point spread market in other sports is now listed among 3 win-or-lose picks on the soccer spread.

Handicap Draw gambling outcomes in soccer picks occur when the favorite beats the underdog by the exact margin listed in the sportsbook’s “consensus” spread line between picks on each of the teams covering. For instance, if the Houston Dynamo are a (-1) favorite to beat the Portland Timbers, and the Dynamo win the game by 1 goal, the outcome results not in a “push” for MLS spread gamblers, but as a win for the Handicap Draw market.

If your margin-of-victory prediction is the same as the Handicap Draw line, try wagering with, instead of against, the sportsbook for a change.

Tips for Making Winning Soccer Picks at the Sportsbook

Sports betting enthusiasts are traditionally advised to bet against “sentimental” picks, such as when Liverpool is a too-large favorite over Derby County or Wimbledon despite Reds resting most of the starting 11. Watford paid off at double digits on the moneyline against Liverpool when it stopped a Reds unbeaten streak in February 2020.

League-leaders Liverpool are 3-0 down to 19th-place Watford 🤯

(via @NBCSportsSoccer) pic.twitter.com/46XzOwwrQG

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 29, 2020

The standard handicapper’s prediction of a David vs Goliath match is more balanced now that instant stats and detailed injury information are available for English Championship and League One picks. As a result, gambling odds are not subject to the 100% top-level prediction bias that may have once existed. However, the betting tactic still works when gambling on international soccer.

Elite clubs of the Premier League must deal with a stronger UEFA field than ever before, leading to fatigue and vulnerability in all competitions. Bookmakers are obliged to place similar short odds on soccer picks like Liverpool and Juventus, but Liverpool probably has the tougher task in keeping up with fellow domestic powers.

English football is richer in quality than any other landscape. But there are broad groups of supporters who tend to deny the discrepancy among lower domestic-club ranks. Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea faithful want to believe their sports clubs will always dominate the Premier League, often skewing their soccer picks. Supporters of other European leagues also like to believe their favorite divisions are just as stacked as England.

Popular soccer picks from alternative national leagues can be overvalued for a different reason. Sporting a European-level midfield in Major League Soccer ensures that a North American club will contend on soccer skill alone. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the squad is prepared for battle with physical teams at home and across borders. Soccer picks based solely on an MLS club’s skill level may end up missing the mark by a wide margin, as was often the case during 2020’s MLS is Back Group Stage.

Look for “underdog” soccer picks on teams that win everything but headlines. When a team such as Wolves faces a mysterious European contender, remember that Wolverhampton FC probably fought harder to maintain a UEFA-worthy spot on the league table. But when predictions on comparable European clubs are priced disproportionately, or when the L.A. Galaxy or Los Angeles FC is favored heavily over a flyover MLS club, look carefully at match reports of the team getting the least media attention. It could be that familiarity is being mistaken for quality, and the road less-traveled will result in a betting jackpot.

Ready to put the advice and predictions into action? Wager and win with your soccer picks by visiting FanDuel Sportsbook.

Soccer at FanDuel: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

How Do I Find Soccer Odds at FanDuel?

Browse to FanDuel Sportsbook's "Soccer" tab on the website's main left-hand menu. You can always find a variety of soccer odds at FanDuel, but sometimes, the sportsbook will include "Soccer," "FIFA," or "UEFA" in its top-left menu of featured gambling lines.

Is There a Reason the Odds are Changing?

Sportsbooks adjust odds on The Beautiful Game to reflect a team's form, injuries, suspensions, and managerial changes. These adjustments are also a method of balancing betting action on both sides of a line. Find out how to analyze the cause (and opportunity) of line-movement for soccer odds by clicking around FanDuel's soccer blog.

Which Soccer Leagues Are Considered Strongest?

The English Premier League, Bundesliga (Germany), La Liga (Spain), and Serie A (Italy) are considered the best soccer leagues in the world, with English Championship clubs not too far behind.

Consider that Watford, a "bubble" team which often faces relegation when competing in a Premier League season thanks to winning few matches, beat Liverpool 3-0 to ruin a potential "invincible" campaign for Reds in 2019. No team from the lower league ranks of Portugal, Spain, or France would be expected to challenge a top-ranked club roster led by legendary strikers and defenders, but the 20th-ranked Hornets or Watford were able to earn a shocking upset due to the amazing depth of English football.

Major League Soccer is considered a 3rd-tier league, but is surpassed in North America only by Liga MX and other Mexican club competitions.

Is There an Offseason in European Soccer?

English Premier League clubs finish each cycle in late May, or in June if the team is fortunate enough to advance in UEFA competition. The new European cycle begins each August, with exhibition matches and training obligations in between.

Remember that "clubs" can call on many reserve lineups to play-out minutes in less prestigious matches, or "fixtures" on the calendar. The top-11 lineups of each club are not expected to appear in "friendlies" over the summer. Don't get duped into paying $200 to see "Salah's team" or "Lewandowski's club" at a U.S. stadium in July - you'll just be watching 11 reserve players in familiar shirts.

How Do I Sign Up to Play DFS Soccer at FanDuel? 

Just surf to FanDuel's soccer hub for a complete, concise rundown on DFS (Daily Fantasy Soccer) games involving EPL, FIFA. UEFA, and other great competitions.

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