EPL Picks: Finding the Best Lines on Premier League Soccer

By Kurt Boyer
Updated: March 20, 2024 

Man City vs Arsenal: Making Wise Picks on March's Last Showdown

Weekly schedules of the English Premier League are not as easily changed as the prime-time games of the National Football League. Therefore, we can guess that as of a fortnight ago, the UK's top-level football headquarters must have thought it had hit a lucky jackpot. Liverpool and Manchester City were poised to square off in an EPL match that, if either side had won convincingly, might have set the tone for the rest of this season's points race, and established Reds or Sky Blues as 2024's championship betting favorite until further notice. Manchester City is also booked against powerful Arsenal in another top-tier table showdown on March 31st, for which readers can scroll down and see the opening odds. Interstitially speaking, the EPL additionally lucked out with its 3 lonely matches in the round on St. Patrick's Day weekend, since part of the holiday's soccer proceedings would include Luton Town and (pre-penalty) Nottingham Forest's tense relegation derby.

Then, the draws started happening. Liverpool and City's supporters joined with the media to praise both clubs after the 1-1 draw at Anfield on March 10th. Following the same final score for Hatters and Tricky Trees last weekend, those Draw-odds betting wins are starting to wear a little thin … excuse the pun! We're waiting for a conflict at the top or bottom of the EPL table to settle itself, and footballers haven't come up with a winner just yet. 

Are thin and pricey 2-to-1 “Draw” odds in the cards for City-Arsenal? Not quite. FanDuel's handicappers clearly believe Man City is poised to beat Arsenal, according to the (-130) preliminary money-line odds on Sky Blues. That means the Draw market won't grow substantially shorter than 3-to-1 odds, and it casts Gunners as the underdog pick at (+350). 

It wasn’t a secret that Liverpool's form was perceived as just slightly better than Arsenal's as of early spring, as shown by Arsenal not getting the second-place nod to win the EPL from FanDuel Sportsbook users despite sharing Liverpool's total and leading Man City's. We can believe that Reds would get a superior betting line to win, at least odds 3-to-1 sharp, to win a hypothetical contest in Manchester right about now. 

Arsenal is getting the rep as a "Barcelona" of the English Premier League this season, a flashy team that runs into trouble when faced with a focused opponent. Maybe the suddenly second-place Bayern Munich is a better parallel, since Bavarians are busy scoring dozens of goals against Bundesliga have-nots, but aren't expected to light the continent on fire behind striker Harry Kane once the UEFA quarter-finals begin. The prevailing wisdom is that Gunners can't take their fancy hat tricks on the road to Manchester City. Instead, they'll have to mint a very, very tough winning goal, and the most time-honored way to upset Manchester City of modern times is to make it the only tally in the match.

Any shift in Manchester City's odds would be weird given how well-rested Sky Blues will be. The treble champions have breezed through 2 consecutive FA Cup rounds and already knew that their Champions League knockout bout with Copenhagen was a done deal before taking the pitch for the back leg. Sky Blues won't have played in a Premiership fixture for 3 weeks upon hosting Gunners in this March's finale. Haaland is far from the only special weapon of a Pep Guardiola team that's finding stride just as the slate starts to soften. 

However, it’ll be Arsenal that’s even more rested for the big match, thanks to playing on March 9th of the last round and getting a fortuitous postponement of the next kickoff, then going back into full recovery and training mode right after the Porto drama in Champions League. What's more, Arsenal's seemingly up-and-down attack may have been vexed by circumstances and international tactics, rather than degree of difficulty going up against elite back-lines. Gunners were caught on the back foot in February's opening tie with Porto thanks to fierce tackling and dodgy calls, but the funny part is, it happened close to the Porto goal. Arsenal's offense advanced out from the back just fine and earned 10 corner kicks. The match remained scoreless because Gunners had been lured into a slower-paced and far more physically brutal soccer fixture than they'd been getting in the Premiership, and because Arsenal's strikers weren't finding the space enough to execute any decent benders. Arsenal didn't miss a lot of strikes, however the favored Gunners simply didn't attempt many of them. A total of 36 fouls were accumulated by exhausted sides in a battle of patience, then Galeno's go-ahead goal gave Porto the lightning bolt that it needed.

Man City is not going to produce that type of match on 3/31, though. If there's a chink in Sky Blues' armor since Kevin de Bruyne returned to the midfield, it's that the confident Citizens often try to play a clean, upright, beautiful match, and then become petulant in their tackling when a tough rival prevents the typical number of City possessions, passes, and shots. Arsenal can get its noses a little dirty and try to quiet the Manchester City faithful while disrupting Sky Blues' rhythm and mood on home grounds. That's a more intriguing angle than any tactical reasoning behind FanDuel's optimistic goal-total odds for Man City versus Arsenal and suggests that another sober, somber pick may prevail this time, at minimum on the O/U. If you expect a 4-3 corker like MUFC's win on Sunday, remember that drawn outcomes have been the story of 2024's biggest bouts so far.

Recommended Pick: Under (2.5) or Under (3.5) Total Goals

Choosing the Best EPL Picks at FanDuel Sportsbook

It's always important to note recent history when making a pick at FanDuel Sportsbook's betting board. But in EPL, or English Premier League betting, it's especially crucial to know exactly where each UK soccer brand is from, how they arrived in the EPL to begin with, and what they're expected to accomplish next.

English Premier League teams belong to many federations but are exclusively sanctioned by none. Clubs must qualify to be invited independently for “competitions” which include domestic or international leagues, tournaments, and "friendly" matches.

Don't look for a genuine offseason in EPL soccer, because there isn't much of one to speak of. Football clubs play again and again in annual cycles with each month providing opportunities to avenge a prior defeat. Because of the harsh responsibilities of top clubs, team managers are not always obliged to play their best starting 11s.

Thankfully, the prestige of English Premier League matches dictates a best-11 lineup and a spirited effort … most of the time.

EPL picks are wagered on legitimate “clubs” that supporters and recreational players can belong to. Trail-blazing Premier League organizations have developed women’s, youth, and reserves’ teams ready to play with any unit that calls for them. Liverpool came close to fielding its backup U20 ("Under 20") roster in England while flying the top squad to Japan to play in the 2019 FIFA Club World Cup. With a team of 11 novice professionals, Reds played “Villains” of Aston Villa and lost the EFL Cup tournament match by 5 goals.

Betting speculators and Daily Fantasy soccer GMs must be keenly aware of how strong or weak an EPL team’s lineup is likely to be in any gambling scenario. Each nation with a prosperous club league, such as France, Spain, Italy, and Brazil, hosts at least 1 or 2 free-for-all domestic tournaments in a given cycle. Monumental upsets can take place as reserve teams lose to upstart clubs in competitions perceived to be less prestigious.

Meanwhile, gambling on a team's best lineup in weekend EPL action is no excuse for forgetting the clubs' depth and reserve quality as factors in the outcome. Premier League favorites such as Manchester United and Chelsea Football Club rely on their rich depth to earn top-4 placement and UEFA berths in each English league cycle. Contenders of the EPL are known to warm-up slowly in late summer while underdogs nip nobly at their heels. Once injuries mount and superstars like Ronaldo are geared up for the home stretch, lower-ranked EPL picks can't pull off a high-profile upset without some luck.

How to Read the Odds on Sportsbook EPL Picks

EPL Picks Made Against Money-Line Odds

FanDuel Sportsbook offers traditional 3-way money-line odds on EPL picks to win or draw matches. Because league matches do not require a penalty kick tiebreaker or even an extra period beyond “stoppage time” - there are no playoffs in the EPL's 38-match format - a deadlocked draw after 90+ minutes is considered a typical outcome.

The "3 outcome" formula is factored into Premier League money-lines odds, based on $100 or $1.00 bets, and offering a payoff in multiples for “plus” odds and a $100 or $1 return on a given sum in a “minus” market. So, if Liverpool is a (-200) favorite to win, $200 or $2 must be wagered to receive $100 or $1, respectively, should Reds be victorious. Furthermore, if the opposing team, Arsenal, is (+500) to win as an underdog, then $500 can be won on a $100 underdog bet if Gunners prevail. But a draw might come with its own (+400) or similar odds, and pay off if Arsenal merely matches Liverpool over 2 halves.

Clients used to betting on other sports must adjust their bankroll management when making EPL picks on money-line odds. In a way, betting on soccer is a more lucrative bet because these matches tend to have larger payoffs by a factor of 33 percent. However, if you only plan on making teams-to-win EPL picks and ignore that a bout may end in a draw, it's unlikely that you will be able to sustain a 50 percent success rate on your picks.

EPL Spreads and the "Handicap Draw" Betting Market

In a typical scenario for against-the-spread betting on EPL, MLS, or FIFA football, the favorites are pre-penalized (-1), (-2) or perhaps (-2 ½) goals and can win, lose, or “push” betting outcomes based on a fixture's final score. However, at FanDuel Sportsbook, there are no push outcomes, and soccer gamblers are given 3 choices on the spread: Favorite-to-cover, Underdog-to-cover, or Handicap Draw.

Soccer bettors can choose “Handicap Draw” at (-1), (-2), or (-3) for the favorite, thus choosing exact margin-of-victory EPL picks. If Manchester United beats Watford by exactly the (-1) goal that Red Devils are favored by, Handicap Draw wins the 3-way bet.

Alternate Over/Under EPL Picks on Every Match

Totals picks can be considered the simplest bet in sports. Teams are combined into a single market with bets placed on whether the game's overall goals, points, or runs will exceed or fall short of the sportsbook's O/U number. But not everyone making EPL picks feels like betting on the same "(2.5)" total, which is where FanDuel's options come in handy.

FanDuel Sportsbook users enjoy customizable Over/Under betting, also known as “goals” betting. Rather than ask gamblers to speculate on a single, shifting O/U line for a soccer match, FanDuel Sportsbook offers a choice of standard (1 ½), (2 ½), and (3 ½) O/U bets with handicapped odds for each Over and Under market. If a bettor thinks a match is going to beat the London consensus by more than 1 goal, the choice of O/U line is a great tool.

FAQ on EPL Betting Odds and Fantasy Football

How Do English Football Teams Reach the EPL?

English Premier League clubs earn the right to play in the nation's elite division through consistent success over time. Outstanding brands from the English Championship, the next-highest ranked UK soccer organization, are promoted to the Premier League at the rate of 3 teams per cycle. English football teams which lose too many matches in their domestic leagues will be "relegated" or sent to play in a lower-tier division.

Where Are the Soccer Odds at FanDuel?

To find odds on EPL picks at FanDuel Sportsbook, click on the "Soccer" tab on the left-hand menu. During the World Cup or any momentus Premier League occasion, FanDuel will include "Soccer," "FIFA," or "UEFA" in its top-left menu of featured bets.

What Causes Premier League Odds to Change?

Sometimes, punters cause lines to change with a "gold rush" on a given team, but that's not the only factor in why odds on EPL picks are always changing. Bookmakers will update soccer lines to reflect form, injuries, suspensions, and coaching upheaval. The adjustments are also a method of balancing betting action on both sides of a line.

For updates on shifting EPL odds, click around our Premier League blog.

What does “(+300) on the Money Line” mean?

EPL picks at FanDuel Sportsbook come with a payoff “moneyline” prefaced by a “+” or a “-“ symbol. Odds denoted with “+” as in “(+300)” pay off the amount given on each winning $100 bet. The victorious gambler wins $3 for every $1 wagered in the market. Odds prefaced by a “-“, as in (-200), are reserved for likely outcomes and pay off $100 for every winning bet that matches the number. A winning (-200) bet wins $1 on every $2 risked. Users can also find "boosted" odds on parlay and prop bets on occasion.

Can I Play Daily Fantasy Soccer at FanDuel?

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