FIFA World Cup Picks

Updated:  August 17, 2023 
By Kurt Boyer

FIFA Picks This Week: 2023's WWC Medal Round Showdowns

3rd Place Game: Australia vs Sweden (Saturday, August 19) 

This "Saturday's" FIFA Women's World Cup action will define what's been so frustrating for state-side supporters throughout Qatar 2022 and Oceania 2023, broadcast in the dead of night in the American Midwest, late Friday night in storm-ravaged Hawaii, and early Saturday morning on the east coast. International soccer's trek through the furthest reaches of world time zones is coming to an end as of 2024. But for right now, those who speculate on the WWC despite red-eye hours will see a pair of lively bouts, not one. 

Each of the national teams playing for 3rd place in the 2023 Women's World Cup have exceeded expectations, even as the fiery host-team vibe of Matildas contrasts with Team Sweden's cool-headed demeanor and patient, conservative tactics. That means that there won't be a downtrodden World #1 or #2 on the pitch to hang its heads and be blown out by a hungrier team. FanDuel Sportsbook betting lines on the bronze medal match in Brisbane are as tight as can be found on climatic FIFA kickoffs, with Sweden holding slightly better (-120) odds to prevail. The nations had similar losses in the semi-final round, each team scoring a dramatic equalizer only to break down against an elite attack moments later. Spain's upstart left back Olga Carmona tallied to give La Roja a 2-1 lead over Sweden almost immediately after Tre-Kronor had managed to tie the match in the late going. Australia's 2-goal loss was perhaps less heartbreaking, due to the match audibly winding down after England's entire forward line and attacking midfield had scored to give Lionesses a 3-1 lead. No host team's loss, however, comes without a let-down. 

Team Australia's scrappy duo of a forward line features Sam Kerr in front of 8 dogged defenders and keeper MacKenzie Arnold. That's a "Leicester City" style pincer tactic that could create weird turns in midfield against Team Sweden's dynamic 4-level formations. It also calls FanDuel's relatively short 2-to-1 "Draw" odds into question, especially considering that a 3rd Place Game must remain drawn until past the 120th minute before approaching a regulation draw and a tiebreaker. The Over/Under odds on Saturday's match are fairly standard, a hint that goals can be had, even though the team with more attackers in formation is Sweden, also the FIFA side with a reputation for cautious clearance. 

Pick: Under (2.5) (-120) 

Gold Medal Game: England vs Spain (Sunday, August 20) 

From controversy to climatic battle, Spain is a slim favorite to lift hardware by beating the vaunted Lionesses of England in Sunday's gold medal showdown. La Roja is holding firm at (-116) odds to win gold and (+145) money-line odds offered on an 11-on-11 Spain victory. England's the shocking, if slight underdog at (+165) money-line market odds. 

Team Spain's betting action to win took a swan dive prior to La Roja's semi-final round bout with Sweden. Something about how Spain refused to let Tre-Kronor equalize for more than a moment has sold FanDuel's speculators on the incomplete Spain roster's ability to beat Lionesses this weekend. But others will contend that Team England is a true favorite to win no matter which opponent they're up against in the Women's World Cup title tilt. 

Lionesses can't feel like underdogs whether they see the London betting boards or not. Sunday's scenario is exactly what Sarina Wiegman's team has been hoping for. There's no USWNT or France in the way as Lauren James returns from a 2-game suspension. The English have overcome an obstacle course while shorthanded, matching Spain in defending while showing even more on the attack. Spain hasn't played a team of elite FIFA strikers since losing 4-0 to Japan in Group Stage, and has yet to prove that result was a fluke. 

Team England's strikers embarrassed the FIFA Women's World Cup's trendiest prop-bet goalkeepers from Colombia and Australia, and then turned physical, disruptive, and quick to counterattack against Matildas in a semi-final match that ended casually, compared to Team Spain's nail-biter. James' ability to help out her midfield following turnovers could hurt La Roja's own chances to counter. But what's maybe sketchier than the money-line markets are Sunday's goal total lines, which offer a whopping (+150) payoff for wagers of Over (2.5) tallies. If bookmakers and users are sold on Spain's offense, why would they be freezing up about England's scoring at the same time, with James' fresh legs ready to explode? And why imagine such a boring bout, even if wagering on La Roja to win? 

Just look at the FIFA Women's World Cup Final's history. Golden clean sheets can be observed dating back to the inaugural women's FIFA clashes of last century. There is  Norway's 2-0 defeat of Germany in 1995, followed by the iconic 0-0 draw and tiebreaker between America and China. Germany shut out Brazil to lift hardware in 2007, 12 years before the United States beat Holland by an identical 2-0 score to repeat with gold. But before that, U.S. and Japanese teams scored 11 times in a pair of free-for-all finales. 

Picks: England to Win World Cup (-102), Over (1.5) (-225) 

Choosing a Style of World Cup Picks at FanDuel 

What is the best style of making FIFA World Cup picks?

Is it to concentrate on choosing pre-tournament picks to win team honors, then cheering your nation (or nations) to what will hopefully be a triumph in the knock-out round? That strategy can be a lot of fun, but as Croatia showed by reaching the 2018 World Cup Final, many popular long-term picks can fall by the wayside in favor of Cinderella berths. 

Picks on individual World Cup matches have their pros and cons too. FanDuel users are wise to pick winners as early as possible prior to a kickoff on some occasions, beating public-betting pressure and wagering on a favorable line before it can change. But anticipatory bets on week-later outcomes can be risky during the World Cup's opening Group Stage, since elite national teams can be prompted to adjust their tactics for a second-or-third round fixture due to how the points-race is shaking out. 

Finally, there's FanDuel Sportsbook's infinite variety of prop bets, player-prediction markets, and other odds on individual (and Federation) performances in the FIFA World Cup. But for every "Ronaldo" or "Messi" who thrills in every match and leads the Golden Boot race, there's a "Mohamed Salah in 2018" whose team, and tournament-ending statistics, pale in comparison to what those making "futures" picks were hoping. 

There's always Daily Fantasy Soccer for those who'd rather not stake money on a single performance in the first place! But the most important tool in the user's arsenal is to understand the rules, restrictions, and parameters of FIFA gaming at FanDuel. 

Futures Betting Lines on the FIFA World Cup 

World Cup speculators can browse "futures" World Cup odds and place bets on potential FIFA world champions years ahead of the next quadrennial showdown on FanDuel. Odds on potential gold-medal teams are displayed in the style of "money-line odds," the foundation of American odds, which can also be converted into English betting odds.

Picks on a gold medalist are not the only long-term FIFA betting alternative. There are also futures odds on a top-3, Round-of-16 qualifiers, non-qualifiers, and of course winners of each of the World Cup's 4-team divisions in Group Stage. 

World Cup Picks: Main Markets on Single Kickoffs 

Picks on FIFA sides to win separate matches are shown in a money-line style, with probable wins and risk measured against a proportional (and hypothetical) $100 for each sample betting pick. Money-line odds on underdog teams are shown with a "+" symbol, as in (+350), with $350 in potential winnings available on a $100 bet. Favored team-related money-line odds or likely outcomes are displayed with a "-" symbol, with negative odds such as (-600) representing the bet amount necessary to earn $100 when a team is victorious. 

Possible drawn outcomes come with their own money-line picks, Even in cases where the teams will ultimately go to a penalty-kick tiebreaker to determine which nation advances to the next elimination round. Tie-breaker conquests are not considered "wins" for the victorious team in money-line markets, but rather for wagers on "draw" picks. 

FanDuel’s variety of "goal total" and against-the-spread picks for users greatly expands on what's expected of a FIFA odds-maker. World Cup supporters may appreciate the site's customizable Over/Under betting, or “goals” betting that offers a selection of standard (1 ½), (2 ½), and (3 ½) O/U "total goals" World Cup picks with handicapped odds for each Over and Under market. The choice of O/U line is a fantastic tool for the speculator who thinks a fixture is going to beat the London consensus by more than a lone goal.  

In a typical synopsis for spread betting on European, MLS, or FIFA football, the favorites are pre-penalized a number of tallies, such as (-1) or (-2) or maybe (-2 ½) goals, and can win, lose, or “push” the outcome based on the final result. But, at FanDuel Sportsbook, soccer gamblers are given 3 picks on the spread: Favorite-to-cover, Underdog-to-cover, or Handicap Draw. Those looking to pick the consensus match-prediction can choose “Handicap Draw” for the pre-match favorite, thus choosing an exact margin-of-victory prop bet. 

Should France beat Denmark by exactly the (-2) goals Les Bleus are favored by, for example then the 3-way market would be won by those who selected the Handicap Draw pick. 

Proposition Picks on FIFA World Cup Teams and Players 

Match odds are handicapped with "proposition" lines such as bets for "Player to Score" and "Player to Score First." Icons like Ronaldo enjoy relatively short odds to score, however, almost all midfielders and back-line players come with prop-bet picks at lower risk. 

FIFA picks include money-line markets on every possible final score for a fixture. Due to the variety of exact-score predictions and associated prop bet odds, even practical forecasts like "Spain 2, Switzerland 1" can be wagered at 7-to-1 payoff odds or higher. Remember if a World Cup side only needs a Group Stage draw to attain its immediate purpose, its manager may "draw" up a conservative game plan decreasing the lineup's chances to score, thus making the supposedly attractive prop-betting pick on "4-0" into fool's gold. 

A World Cup pick that has a higher percentage of winners is available with "Both Teams to Score," which is a classic “Yes” or “No” prop bet. "Yes" gamblers win the bet if each team scores. "No" is for those who pick a 1-sided opening half or a scoreless, staid draw.

The innovative "Double Chance" pick should also not be overlooked. Sportsbooks overseas have long offered "lay" betting, or soccer bets in which customers choose 2 out of 3 probable win-lose-draw outcomes in a fixture. The gambler "lays," or eschews the single outcome they feel is least likely to occur. The prop bet pays off so long as the "lay" pick does not win, no matter which of the other W-D-L scenarios transpire. 

With numerous state-side betting sites that make it impossible to "lay" a soccer team's next appearance, except via the clumsy route of betting on 2 out of 3 money-line choices, the sportsbook at FanDuel has found a way to serve those "fish and chips." Picks made against "Double Chance" make it easy, offering a trio of picks such as "Sweden and Draw," which allows FanDuel clients to "lay" a "reverse pick" like they're betting in a pub in the UK.  

FAQ on FIFA World Cup Picks 

What Were the Longest Odds on a Winning World Cup Pick? 

Strangely enough, the answer to this question is somewhat shrouded in debate! Betting on World Cup soccer wasn't always as legal and well-publicized around the world as it is today. Some supporters claim that Italy's win as a 7-to-1 championship futures pick in 2006 qualifies as the biggest sportsbook upset, but other upset World Cup triumphs from the mid-1900s were considered much longer shots than Gli Azzuri's powerful squad in the 2000s. There's simply no concrete evidence of what the betting odds were back then. 

Does My Underdog Pick Have a Chance to Win Gold? 

The World Cup is unique in that people don't have to wonder if a team thinks it can win the tournament. Instead, just listen to the competing teams talk about it! FIFA managers consider it a negative to ask too much of a squad that probably can't win. For instance, Team Mexico makes its top quadrennial goal into reaching the quarter-finals, while Argentina considers nothing but a World Cup Finals appearance as a success. Players from newly-qualified nations will admit to simply trying to reach the Round-of-16. 

World Cup odds can be affected when FIFA's underdogs answer the media's predictable questions about trying to win. If a squad appears "cocky" despite overwhelmingly long odds to win the World Cup, the team's free-spirited approach can lead to Group Stage stunners and high-scoring outcomes, such as the United States' 2-1 upset of Colombia at the Rose Bowl when America hosted the FIFA World Cup in 1994. The team's failure to score in its next 2 matches, both defeats, illustrated the downside of a Cinderella squad's cavalier attitude going into matches against elite footballers from European clubs.

Which Confederation Has Won the Most World Cups? 

European teams, while not always competing under the modern UEFA banner, have combined to win the World Cup a leading total of 14 times. South America's soccer strongholds have combined to rival Europe with 9 championships of their own. 

Does the United States Have a Chance to Win? 

Probably not by the time the quarter-finals arrive in Qatar. But in spite of long chances to win medals, the sad years of puny United States teams in the World Cup may be over. 

Christian Pulisic of Chelsea Football Club and Zack Steffen of Manchester City are leading an era of very promising Stars & Stripes lineups in the 2020s. The USA qualified for the 2022 World Cup with ease, but the team also looks forward to hosting a Group Stage round, and possibly more, when in 2026 the world championship is co-hosted on home turf.

Nevertheless, the USMNT has a long way to go before it can be thought of as a solid pick to win world championship gold. Bettors are advised to consider the U.S. team's 100s-to-1 odds to win November's gold as a non-starter—but expect the USA to win matches.

Surf to FanDuel's Daily Fantasy Sports training guide and click on "Soccer" for a complete rundown of scoring rules and sign-up instructions. 

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