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College Football Picks

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Updated: January 4, 2024

Michigan, Washington to Wage Classic National Title Matchup 

At first, it was easy to be dismayed by the 2023-24 College Football Playoff's semifinal pairings. Michigan's gathered on-campus throng audibly sighed when #4 seed Alabama became the #1 seeded Wolverines' opponent for New Year's, while Washington and Texas drew what was considered to be the weaker of 2 semifinals. If Alabama blew out UM, pundits would have asked why Georgia wasn't a playoff bid, since the Bulldogs have reigned over college football for a calendar year. If Washington walloped Texas, the Tuscaloosa fan base would have had even more reason to crow about 2024's snub. 

Thankfully, it didn't work out that way. Michigan's overtime win over Alabama, in which the Wolverines netted 6 sacks and a gaggle of tackles-for-loss on defense, proved that coach Jim Harbaugh's recruiting has finally matched the very, very finest of the dominant SEC's rosters. Washington did threaten to blow away Texas behind the 400-yard passing arm of UW's Michael Penix Jr., but UT mounted a late charge to at least prove its worth as a legitimate CFP contender in the 2020s, falling short on a final pass out-of-bounds. 

Washington is a (+4.5) point spread underdog to Michigan for next Monday, January 8th's national championship kickoff, though the Over/Under line of O/U (55.5) total points at FanDuel Sportsbook begs a very relevant question. Are the Wolverines not getting enough credit for stopping Alabama's strong offense when it counted last weekend, on which the Over/Under line going into a Michigan bout was not known for landing in the high 50s? Conversely, are bookmakers thinking that UM could simply blow away Washington's defense in a way that 'Bama wouldn't allow, and run up a lopsided final score? 

We'll defend the Washington Huskies from that analyst's daydream, since any notion that Michigan's due for one final, glorious romp to a 15-0 campaign via a crazy score must be gathered from the wrong perspective. Yes, it's true that Washington has not yet had to beat a team as powerful as Michigan, and that the "Cinderella team" has to deal with a weird variety of pressure on Monday, representing the dying Pac-12 football conference and attempting to win what would be an historical anomaly of a championship, not to mention to illustrate that Pac-12 football, anachronistic or not, is still good enough to claim final superiority over the rest of the FBS in its swan song. But the question that's not being entertained is whether Michigan is even built to blow out a Spread Offense style of opponent in a big game, or whether the Wolverines are shooting for 28-7 anyway. 

Michigan's biggest blow-out over a solid team came against Purdue, and it was only mop-up TDs in the 4th quarter that dragged that game's point total over 50. Penix Jr. is seen as the type of quarterback who can hurt the Wolverines with well-rehearsed early scores, and force Harbaugh's game plan to open up for once. But after Michigan's unreal show of dominating edge-rush force against Alabama, the Huskies will have to be cautious. 

FanDuel College Football Blog's Best Picks in the CFP Final 

Michigan feels like a reasonable point-spread pick at (-4.5). UM's degree-of-difficulty versus Alabama was far worse than Washington's climb against Texas, and each semifinal winner was forced to win with a final defensive stand as time ran out. However, the factors that make Michigan a solid ATS pick could make other picks on the board stand out more. 

Harbaugh has allowed reports of his expected departure from the Big House to leak out in the media prior to the College Football Playoff. That was as dangerous for Michigan football as Harbaugh's mostly ceremonial suspensions this season turned out to be dangerous for the rest of the Top 25. CFB teams whose head coaches are leaving can be left in a mire of indecision. Of course, Harbaugh has accomplished so much at Michigan, and remained doggedly loyal to the program for so long that he won't be blamed for heading back to professional football. But once again, the theme is "pressure." Michigan, should the Wolverines have lost to Alabama, would have let Harbaugh go down a bridesmaid. 

The semifinal at the Rose Bowl ended any talk of a distracted Michigan. Given how the Wolverines performed under intense pressure against Alabama, we don't think that Washington can expect to flourish thanks to blown coverages by Michigan's defensive backfield, or turnovers from the Wolverines' well-oiled machine of a ground attack. Michigan, not UW, produced the biggest turnover of the semifinals, recovering a loose football at midfield to turn the "Tide" of Alabama's latter-half rally in Pasadena. 

But more than that, the Alabama game could serve as "weighted bat" training for a UM defense that's potentially surpassing Georgia's in speed, depth, and physicality. Penix Jr. isn't profoundly more talented overall than Missouri's 11-2 quarterback Brady Cook, and we saw what Ohio State's secondary—such a comparable Big Ten unit to Michigan's that spelling it out would be a waste of space—did to Mizzou's passing game last week, even while Ohio State's undermanned offense looked like a total disaster. With less of an opportunity to shine against Michigan's ball control and mighty edge rush, we are considerably skeptical that UW could turn Monday's match into a track meet. 

Best CFP Final Picks: Under (55.5), Michigan ATS (-4.5)

College Football Picks: How to Wager and Win on the FBS

College football has come a long way in a short time. Even today's students can recall a time in which there was no College Football Playoff, and people had to argue about which school was the real national champion once bowl season concluded in January.

The Football Bowl Subdivision may not be perfect, and Top 25 polls still play a large role in determining the match-ups of CFP semifinals and major bowl games. However, it's almost impossible for an FBS team to lose its conference and ascend to the College Football Playoff. The 4 teams honored as picks for the CFP are acknowledged to be league champions or very, very strong division winners before stepping onto a neutral field. Interestingly, other marquee bowl games haven't lost their luster due to the CFP's "Final Four" format.

College Football Playoff brackets have been ruled over by Alabama and Clemson. Since the CFP began in 2014-15, the Crimson Tide has made 6 appearances and won 3 national championships, while the Tigers of Death Valley have won twice and appeared 5 times. Ohio State, Georgia, and Notre Dame's dominance hasn't been far behind.

The presence of CFB's most elite 5-10 teams is a source of merriment at FanDuel Sportsbook, as wild "Over/Under" lines and point spreads as yawning as "(-49)" attempt to compensate whenever a small-conference patsy must travel to Tuscaloosa. But the scientific scheduling of D1 college football creates a ton of evenly-matched kickoffs from October through January, causing point-spread picks to tighten and O/U lines to shrink.

New to college pigskin's moneylines, totals, and point spreads? Or simply new at FanDuel and needing a roadmap to the site's sportsbook? Scroll for a look at our FBS odds, lines, and options for making picks, starting with a review of "futures'' odds on a CFP champion.

Futures Odds on a College Football Playoff Winner

College football odds on a national champion appear almost as soon as each CFP has ended. Most sportsbooks, including FanDuel Sportsbook, are also happy to offer "floating" CFP championship picks throughout the season. December, when campuses break for the holidays prior to teams meeting in bowl match-ups, is an annual landing-zone for a lot of fresh handicaps and wagers on a potential College Football Playoff winner.

Dominant brands rule the top of the CFP odds board. Alabama or Clemson might be a 4/1 or shorter pick to repeat following a national title triumph, while powerhouses from the Big Ten and Big 12 can vie for the most-popular betting lines alongside Alabama's SEC rivals Florida, Georgia, and LSU, which won the FBS championship in 2019-20.

Meanwhile, the Group of 5 - teams from 5 smaller conferences including the MAC, Mountain West, AAC, Sun Belt, and Conference USA - is left out of serious national championship picks almost entirely. Even when a G5 team becomes a dominant force in college football, like Central Florida in the 2010s or Brigham Young in 2020, gaps in the program's strength-of-schedule and a landscape tinged with big-money corruption will combine to lock the squad out of a CFP berth 9 out of 10 times. Group of 5 contenders like BYU and UCF are often found as "sleeper" futures picks with odds of 25/1 or longer.

The FBS plans to institute an 8-team or a 12-team College Football Playoff within a few years, though including undefeated Group of 5 teams as "#8" or "#12" seeds could be considered a case of treating the symptom and not the problem. Many "prop" futures picks on the College Football Playoff will shrink shorter as fans wager in preseason on whether a school will be among the last 12, 8, or 4 brands eliminated from the bracket. There's a far better shot for BYU or Northern Illinois as "final 12" picks instead of "final 4" picks.

FBS futures odds are found in "moneyline" form at FanDuel Sportsbook, with potential picks weighed against $100 on either side of the market. Keep scrolling for a run-down of moneyline odds, point spreads, and Over/Under totals on college football games.

Making Moneyline Picks on College Football

College football's moneyline odds promise a % payoff when a gambler’s pick wins the game straight-up. A favorite’s moneyline odds are denoted with a “-“ as in (-300). Underdog moneylines are marked with a “+” as in a ML of (+230). Payoff is calculated differently for the betting picks in the favorite’s and underdog’s markets, but always with imaginary Benjamins, or $100 bills, in mind.

Moneyline betting odds of (-250) mean that for every $250 wagered on a pick, the house will pay out $100 if that pick wins. (-500) odds stand for $100 payoff on every $500 wagered at the betting book.

On the underdog side, moneyline odds represent the amount paid out on won $100 bets if the pick surprises. Odds of (+350) on Georgia Tech promise a $350 payout on a $100 wager if the Ramblin' Wreck prevails on Saturday. Longer underdog odds such as (+1000) represent $1000 payout on the same risk, and so on.

There are hundreds of college football kickoffs every weekend, and sportsbooks aren't obligated to place moneyline odds on all of them. Sportsbooks often skip the moneyline when a Top 25 team hosts a "thrash for cash" contest against a weak sister from the Football Championship Subdivision. In other cases, news of a star freshman's injury or a veteran's lack of focus late in the week can send a moneyline reeling, prompting bookmakers to suspend betting lines until further adjustments are made. There are no tied games in modern college football, so every moneyline pick on the FBS either wins or loses. The only "push" returned bets occur when a game is cancelled.

Understanding Point Spreads on FBS Games

FBS point spreads work by “spotting” points to the underdog and “taking” points away from the favorite prior to kickoff. For instance, if the Oklahoma Sooners are a (+3) underdog pick prior to the Peach Bowl and lose by only 2 points or otherwise exceed expectations, the Sooners have “covered the spread.” If OU's rival at (-3) wins by 4 or more, the opponent has “covered” the spread. If the Oklahoma Sooners lose the Peach Bowl by exactly 3 points, every point spread bet is returned 100% in a push outcome.

Put another way, FanDuel gamblers picking a CFB favorite “ATS" must hope that a (-3.5) team wins by 4 or more points – a 1, 2, or 3-point victory or a straight-up loss loses the wager. Underdog point-spread gamblers are hoping that their picks will “cover” by winning by any amount or losing by any amount smaller than the point spread.

If the underdog’s point spread is (+6) and the club loses by 5 points, bettors still win the payout. However, bear in mind that a head coach rarely worries about whether his squad loses by 5 or by 6 points - a 1+ point victory is his only mission. Many ATS bettors have been sorely disappointed (or pleased) when a coach whose (-3) team is losing by 6 points eschews a field goal try that could otherwise close the gap on the point spread.

NCAA coaches do think about margin-of-victory once a game has been decided, an angle that comes into play on "thrash for cash" point spreads, as FBS speculators try to determine whether or not an against-the-spread pick will push for points in garbage-time.

Each side of a point spread comes with its own "moneyline" payout offer for winning picks, often (-110) for each, but sometimes (-120) vs (-105) or (-125) vs (+100) if the sportsbook is trying to balance the game's betting "handle" without moving the spread.

Over/Under Point Total Picks on College Football

Over/Under wagers combine a pair of teams' performances into a single market, asking gamblers to predict how many points will be scored in the game overall. "O/U" lines on FBS games are numbers with no symbols, no bells, and no whistles. Just (45) or (51.5) (with the “.5” fraction blocking a potential push, since teams can’t score half-points) or maybe (55) if a pair of high-scoring teams are planning a Hawaii Rainbow Warriors-style track meet.

Next to the O/U number is the payoff odds, again usually around 1-to-1 risk and reward on either the "Under" or "Over" for each of 2 possible picks in the betting market.

When NFL and College Football Picks Collide

Whether NFL or NCAA pigskin is the superior brand is an argument as old as Roger Staubach. Partisans of The Shield tout the NFL's elite rosters, legendary dynasties, and worldwide publicity. FBS supporters are partial to the iconic settings, eye-catching tactics, marching bands, and cheer squads of the college gridiron. There will never be a correct answer in the debate - pro football vs college football is a matter of taste.

But the truth is, NFL and NCAA conferences are inextricably linked, starting with the NFL Draft of top college players every April. Part of the SEC's reputation as a top FBS league is that National Football League GMs prefer to draft players from the SEC when possible. High school and college coaches may choose to watch the NFL for fun, but NFL coaches have to follow the top teams and players of college football - it's their job.

No one understands the NFL + FBS symbiosis like the betting community. Gambling odds on potential #1 NFL Draft picks are a popular hobby horse every springtime. Heisman Trophy outcomes may or may not affect how NFL clubs choose to draft top-ranked college players, but it's not uncommon for a Heisman winner (or even a short-odds betting favorite to win the award) to contend for an MVP award in pro pigskin later in his career.

Prop bets can ask bettors to predict NFL and college football outcomes in a single wager. For instance, if a weekend NFC playoff game between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers occurs in the same 24 to 48 hours as an important FBS bowl game, a college + NFL football prop bet might ask whether the Dallas QB or a QB from the Oklahoma State "Cowboys" will whip more passes on-target and lasso more opposing tacklers.

Tips on running backs, wide receivers, or even special-teams picks can be made into cross-league prop bets, such as asking bettors to pick which kicker - the NFL special teamer from Big D or the student-athlete kicker for OSU - will score more points.

NFL preseason picks often hinge on how lesser-known FBS players fare on the field during the 3rd and 4th quarters. Meanwhile, ex-pro coaches are often recruited to stand at the helm of legacy FBS teams. It's important for college football and NFL gambling enthusiasts alike to learn each other's favorite sport - it can make August a little easier.

College Football Picks: FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)

How Many FBS Conferences Are There?

There are 10 conferences in the Football Bowl Subdivision, all of which sanction 10 to 14 total teams at any given time. The "Power 5" is a collective of 5 conferences that control the Top 25 rankings and the national title picture, including the ACC, SEC. Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big 12. The "Group of 5" is comprised of what were once known as "mid-majors," schools from the Mountain West, AAC, C-USA, MAC, and the Sun Belt, the latter of which has served as a "bubble" league for teams transitioning from FCS to FBS play.

There is some question as to whether the Power 5 vs Group of 5 paradigm will persist in years to come. The Pac-12 is in danger of falling behind the American Athletic Conference in overall strength on the gridiron, and the Big 12 could be poised to fall apart completely as league brass faces a potential exodus of marquee programs. Perhaps we'll soon see a "Power 3" and a "Group of 6" as college football consolidates in the 2020s.

What is the "Point Total" in College Football Betting?

Handicappers often refer to a game's Over/Under total as "the total," as in, "the Florida State vs Florida point total is rising." That actually can't be true, since the point total of a game cannot "rise" until the teams take the field and begin scoring.

Instead of an actual point total, the "total" or "Over/Under" refers to a betting line based on how many points are expected in the contest overall. Found next to an O/U number such as "(45)" or "(59.5) are the payoff odds, again usually around 1-to-1 risk and reward on either the "Under" or "Over" side of the betting market.

Why Can't I Find a Moneyline on Alabama, LSU, Etc?

When FBS powerhouses host a "thrash-for-cash" game against a weak sister from the FCS, sportsbooks often pass-up allowing action on a moneyline, since everyone's pick to win the game would be alike anyway. However, FanDuel Sportsbook usually offers O/U lines and point spreads on college football games even when a ML is not offered.

What is Live Betting on FBS Football?

You can make your college football picks during the game, and even place bets in the heat of the battle - if you're fast enough with an online betting slip. Check out FanDuel's live betting options for more "in-play" opportunities each Saturday of the season.

Does FanDuel Offer DFS College Football?

Yes indeed! Click on our College Football Training Guide to find out how FanDuel matches the excitement of Daily Fantasy Sports to the tradition of FBS gridirons.