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College Football Fantasy Preview
By Kreighton Rahn
Updated November 23, 2022
College Football Games with Big Fantasy Implications in Week 13
Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh Features Heisman-Hopeful Caleb Williams in Projected High-Scoring Romp
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have engineered one of the craziest seasons of college football in recent memory. The Irish started 0-2 under new head coach Marcus Freeman, including a loss to Sun Belt opponent Marshall.
This was devastating for the young Freeman who also lost Notre Dame's bowl game in his first official duty the January prior, becoming the first head coach in Irish history to lose each of his first 3 contests.
Give Freeman credit. Instead of crawling into the fetal position, the 36-year-old head coach drew the best out of his 0-2 team, embarking on an 8-1 run including 2 wins over ranked opponents.
That brings us to the present. Notre Dame is 8-3 and ranked 15th in the latest College Football Playoff poll—awaiting their annual bout with cross-nation rival USC—the Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh.
The Trojans will trot a stellar ballclub out onto the Coliseum pitch Saturday night in the 7:30 pm ET rivalry game. A 1-point loss at Utah in mid-October is the lone blemish on USC's record. Both the AP and Coaches polls have the Trojans ranked 5th, ready to slide into the Playoff when either Michigan or Ohio State inevitably lose this Saturday. The College Football Playoff committee is a bit stingier, however, and has 2-loss LSU 5th with the USC Trojans 6th.
The star of the show will be USC quarterback Caleb Williams—the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at (-130). The Trojans are 5.5-point favorites in a game with a lofty total of 64.5 points.
This means offensive fireworks are expected, which is par for the course when Caleb Williams is under center. USC has put up 42.7 points per game this year—better than every single school in college football except Tennessee and Ohio State.
The Irish don't score nearly as many points as USC, just 31.0 per game. Notre Dame will need to blow that total out of the water if they are to compete Saturday night. The Irish have won each of the last 4 games in this series and are 48-36-5 overall dating back to 1926, but are clear dogs in this one.
A quick quarterback comparison tells you everything you need to know about this matchup. USC's Williams has 3,480 passing yards with 33 touchdowns. Notre Dame's Drew Pyne has just 1,703 and 19.
Memphis-SMU Game in Dallas Has Highest Vegas Total in College Football This Weekend
Astute college football fantasy owners know to utilize the Vegas totals to help predict teams bound for big scoring nights. The 69.5-point total in Saturday afternoon's battle between 6-5 Memphis and 6-5 SMU is the highest on the Week 13 slate.
Both schools are already bowl eligible and neither has a shot at winning the American. This one is purely for pride, which means both coaches will empty the playbook and crank the aggressiveness meter up to 11 with nothing to lose.
The eyes of the nation—or at the very least your fantasy league—will be on SMU senior wide receiver Rashee Rice. Rice has emerged as a top-5 college football fantasy wide receiver this year, leading the NCAA in receiving yards with 1,208 and earning about 20 FanDuel fantasy points each weekend.
Rice is an excellent all-around receiver who is capable of big plays from different formations on all downs. The Texas native had his biggest games early in the season, accumulating a Heisman-worthy 46 receptions, 687 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in his Mustangs' first 5 games. He's since had his pace slowed by opposing defenses who recognized selling out to stop Rice is an effective move to handcuff SMU's offense.
The Mustangs were shut down by ranked Tulane last week, who held Rice in check for just 41 yards receiving and no scores. This broke a streak of 3-straight games in which Rice had found the end zone.
Expect the targets to come Rice's way early and often Saturday in a 3:30 pm ET game. The Mustangs possess a top-10 scoring offense in college football with 38.8 points per game. This point total of 69.5 is SMU's 4th-highest point total of the season.
Tulsa-Houston in Expected Shootout as Golden Hurricane WR Keylon Stokes Aims to Make History
For an unranked 7-4 team from the American Conference, the Houston Cougars command a lot of attention from college football fantasy owners.
Cougars signal caller Clayton Tune passes himself off as an unassuming college senior from Carrollton, TX but is actually a bona fide fantasy football god. Tune has amassed 3,459 passing yards through 11 games in 2022, dishing out 35 passing touchdowns, which leads college football.
Only 2 other college quarterbacks score more fantasy points per game than Tune—UNC's Drake Maye and Oregon's Bo Nix. If Tune would cut back a bit on the interceptions (he has 9 this season) he'd likely be the leading fantasy scorer in the nation.
Of course, someone has to be on the receiving end of all those Tune touchdown throws. Nathaniel Dell—the nation's leading fantasy wide receiver—has caught 14 of them.
Dell is 2nd in the nation in receiving yards behind SMU's Rashee Rice. He's also 2nd in the nation in touchdown catches behind Tennessee's Jalin Hyatt. Combine Dell's 1,193 yards and 14 touchdowns and no one is touching him in the fantasy department.
While most fantasy owners will be Tune-d into Houston's offense, let's not forget that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane score 30 points per game themselves and have a living legend—senior WR Keylon Stokes—who is also a top-10 fantasy option at his position and has an opportunity to etch his name into the record books.
When Tulsa has needed a big play all season long, they've turned to their senior wideout Keylon Stokes. Stokes has caught 69 passes for 1,177 yards and 7 scores in 2022.
Numbers like these have been commonplace for the 6th-year senior. Stokes has racked up 3,727 receiving yards in his college career—all for the Golden Hurricane—and is the current active leader in career receiving yards.
3,727 is a top-40 number all time. Between the Houston game and Tulsa's imminent bowl game, Stokes will have 2 more chances to move up on the all-time list. The 5'10 Manvel, TX native is averaging 107 yards receiving per game in 2022 and has eclipsed the 100-yard mark on 7 separate occasions this season.
Two more average games for Stokes will move him up to 25th on the all-time college football receiving yards list.
Both sides enter this contest knowing who on that opposing sideline is most likely to beat them. The tricky part is stopping it. The Vegas total for this game is 66.5. Totals never get that high unless both teams are expected to put up points.
Expect some highlight reel passing plays in Houston Saturday night (7:30 pm ET kick) as the Cougars are 11.5-point favorites. Tulsa will likely fall behind and rely on Keylon Stokes to keep them in the ball game.
The added incentive to help their 6th-year man climb up the all-time leaderboard means Stokes might see even more targets than usual in his AAC finale.
Demon Deacons Need to "Wake" up Against Blue Devils in Expected Slugfest
Wake Forest's 2022 season has been a rollercoaster. The peaks came early when the Demon Deacons took #7 Clemson to overtime back in September and then beat #16 Florida State on the road in back-to-back weeks.
The track has had many dips toward the end as Wake has dropped 3-straight ACC contests to Louisville, NC State, and UNC before finally beating a fledgling Syracuse team to stop the downswing.
Duke's 2022 football season has seen much of the same ebbs and flows. The Blue Devils beat Miami and Boston College on the road but lost heartbreakers to Georgia Tech, Pitt and their archrival UNC—all of which were by 3 points or fewer.
Duke HC Mike Elko looks at his team's 4-3 conference record and sees a plausible reality in which they could be 7-0 and in control of the Coastal division of the ACC.
Both sides have flirted with the top-25 this year, but neither is ranked heading into this Week 13 matchup. What type of game are the oddsmakers predicting between a couple of good-not-great teams? A high-scoring one.
A Vegas total of 66.5 points is the 2nd-highest total of the year for Duke and the 3rd-highest for Wake. The Blue Devils have been over machines of late, running up the score in 4 of their last 5 games.
Each school ranks inside the top-35 highest-scoring college football offenses of 2022. Wake Forest scores 37.4 points per contest. Duke scores 33.0.
Fantasy wise, the Demon Deacons subsist on the Sam Hartman to AT Perry connection. Hartman is a Charlotte, NC native and junior at Wake, currently inside the top-20 college football fantasy quarterbacks this season with 3,074 passing yards and 32 touchdowns.
Perry hails from Lake Worth, FL, and is also in the Class of 2024. He's hauled in 62 passes this year for 893 yards and 10 scores. This is enough to earn him a spot inside the nation's top-15 fantasy pass catchers.
The Blue Devils rely heavily on their dual-threat sophomore quarterback Riley Leonard to ignite the offense. Leonard has thrown for over 2,400 yards in 2022 with 16 touchdowns through the air and another 11 on the ground.
Riley weighs in as the number-10 fantasy quarterback in college football this season, generating 45% of his fantasy production with his legs. This is the 2nd-highest percentage in the top-40 fantasy college football quarterbacks. LSU's QB Jayden Daniels accounts for 47% of his fantasy scoring with his legs.
The Demon Deacons are 3.5-point road favorites in Durham this Saturday. The kick is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET.
FanDuel College Football Lineups and Scoring
FanDuel rewards daily fantasy football players for the following statistics:
- 10 rushing/receiving yards (1 point)
- 25 passing yards (1 point)
- Rushing/receiving TD (6 points)
- Passing TD (4 points)
- Reception (1/2 a point)
- Return TD (6 points)
- 2-pt conversion rushing/receiving/passing score (2 points)
- Interception thrown (-1 point)
- Fumble lost (-2 points)
FanDuel keeps the college football DFS lineup creation process simple—just quarterbacks, running backs and receivers. No defense. No kickers. The rosters include:
- 1 quarterback
- 2 running backs
- 3 pass catchers (receiver or tight end)
- 1 S Flex (any)
How to Excel in FanDuel's College Football DFS Offerings
College football DFS players on FanDuel have the choice of playing cash games or deep tournaments.
The strategy used to build a winning roster varies immensely between the two game types. The first step to planning out the optimal roster is identifying the type of game in which you are playing.
Cash games do not require monster scores to be profitable. Remaining above average is the name of the game in cash contests.
Post above-average scores week in and week out—then lean back and watch your wallet fatten.
In cash games, the most valuable players to draft are those with high floors—meaning players who are extremely unlikely to lay a dud.
Streaky players who either ball out or wet the bed are not good cash game options as the owner takes on too much risk putting one of these players in his lineup. The potential monster score won't help as much as the dud would kill your chances.
Tournaments are the exact opposite. With so many entrants in the field, an excellent score is needed to cash.
Tournament DFS players must swing for the fences with every lineup. Here, upside is king. Tournament owners are looking for players to roster with the highest ceilings—their best possible day.
Speedy receivers often used as deep threats are too inconsistent for widespread cash game use but become dangerous options in deep tournaments (also called GPPs for guaranteed prize pool).
Redzone tight ends—tall guys who don’t get many receptions but have the possibility of scoring 2 or 3 touchdowns if the game develops fortuitously—are also too streaky to employ in cash games but make for exciting dark horse picks in the pass catcher slot in GPPs.
Using a Contrarian Approach in Deep GPP Tournaments
Many DFS pros reference using the contrarian approach in large-field tournaments. Contrarian thinking is going against the grain and including players in your lineup who are not popular with the general public.
This leads to having a unique lineup. If your players go off you will gain points on the entire field as very few other owners roster the same players as you.
The contrarian approach is unnecessarily too risky for cash games, but it is extremely effective in large tournaments.
The downside to the contrarian approach is that sometimes you will be dead wrong as the public issues a big "I told you so."
You can get the last laugh by scooping the next tournament with a contrarian approach, however.
Tips on Drafting the Best Running Backs in College Football DFS
In full-season fantasy college football drafts, the thinnest position—running back—must be prioritized.
Many college coaches are following the lead of the NFL and moving away from turning a stud back into an every-down workhorse.
Running back by committee or two-running-back attacks are becoming more common at the college level.
Top-tier running backs who produce weekly are truly a rare breed now. They get gobbled up very fast early in drafts. If you don’t spend a 1st or 2nd-round pick on a good running back, you’re not getting one.
Running backs are typically one of the first players selected in college football DFS games, as well.
Most fantasy owners build their lineup around an expensive running back—finding cheaper options at receiver and quarterback based on what they can afford with the remaining salary.
It is much easier to find high-upside options at the quarterback and receiver position than at the ultra-thin running back position.
Receivers are streaky creatures and prone to off games, many times for reasons beyond their control like play call or quarterback and accuracy.
Spending top dollar for a stud receiver can burn you. High-priced receivers could be leveraged in deep GPPs, but cash game players should spend big on running backs for their higher floor.
Drafting Your Fearless Leader – the All-Important QB Position in College Football DFS
Quarterbacks are normally the highest-scoring players in a college football DFS roster, so it only makes sense that most FanDuel fantasy owners elect to go with a 2nd quarterback in their S Flex slot (which allows a player from any position).
When spending big money on a main quarterback in college football DFS, it is important to check both the Vegas spread and total for the game.
Elevated Vegas totals mean the experts think this one will be a shootout. The underdog quarterback in a shootout has an excellent chance to outperform his norm as he'll likely be throwing a lot in the 2nd half, hopefully playing catch up against a tired defense.
Beware of investing too much in a quarterback for a team expected to win handily. Teams stop throwing in the 2nd half with a big lead and—even worse—might sit their starting QB in the 4th quarter.
With expensive players at running back and quarterback, you likely won't have a ton of cash remaining to invest in a 2nd S Flex quarterback. Fortunately, quarterback is the deepest position in college football DFS.
Unlike at running back or receiver, there is no shortage of high-upside quarterback options across all price points. In deep tournaments, some fantasy owners elect to roll the dice on 2 cheap quarterbacks and spend that money on running backs and receivers.
Don't be Let Down Ever Again by Receivers – the Art of Drafting Good Pass Catchers in College Football DFS
In cash games, possession receivers who garner lots of targets are the most valuable pass catchers on the board.
These receivers are often the go-to target for their quarterbacks—especially on third down—and are immune to game flow.
Game flow is the style of game and how it unfolds. Some games are high-scoring while others are defensive battles. Some games see one team jumping out to a huge lead while others are close throughout. This is game flow.
Predicting game flow is an excellent way to determine which running backs and receivers stand to see an increase or decrease in touches.
The best quarterback options week to week are determined nearly exclusively by a predicted game flow which sees them playing catch up and passing often.
Possession receivers will have a big role in almost any style of game. They are targeted in low-scoring and high-scoring games alike. They will even be used by teams with a big lead in the second half when they need to convert a third down.
Possession receivers are the way to go in cash games, but speedy deep threats are the kings of the GPP world.
Lightning fast downfield threats who collect most of their yardage and touchdowns on chunk plays can’t be trusted in cash, but their upside turns them into appealing tournament options.
Stacking one of these receivers with his quarterback is a widely-employed tournament strategy that compounds each positive play—but also each negative one.