Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Saturday, September 12
Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance
- Rafael Devers (+370)
- Munetaka Murakami (+400)
- Randy Arozarena (+400)
Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.
That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.
Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.
MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.
Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today
Home Run Prediction: Rafael Devers (+370)
Padres at Giants, 4:06 p.m. ET
Rafael Devers is one of my favorite combinations of power and odds on Saturday's slate.
The Giants slugger is up to 36 home runs in 147 games this season, and his underlying power numbers back up the production. Devers owns a .260 ISO, while his average exit velocity sits at 93.0 mph. He has also produced a 12.4% barrel rate across all pitch types.
The matchup isn’t an easy one as the San Diego Padres are turning to RHP Michael King. But that means Devers owns the platoon advantage, and he's one of the hottest power hitters in baseball with five homers over the last 15 days entering Saturday.
Home Run Prediction: Munetaka Murakami (+400)
White Sox at Cardinals, 7:16 p.m. ET
Munetaka Murakami‘s first MLB season has featured exactly the kind of power we expected, as the Chicago White Sox slugger has already gone deep 31 times in 112 games.
He'll get a matchup with St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Kyle Leahy. Leahy has pitched well overall this season, but he's coming off his worst start in quite some time, allowing five earned runs on six hits over just 2 2/3 innings against Colorado. He also surrendered a homer in that outing after giving up another long ball in his previous start.
That gives Murakami an opportunity to capitalize on a pitcher who hasn't been quite as sharp recently. With 31 homers in only 112 games, Murakami possesses more than enough raw power to make this number worth considering.
Home Run Prediction: Randy Arozarena (+400)
Mariners at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET
We'll finish with Randy Arozarena in the Seattle Mariners‘ matchup with the Athletics.
Arozarena has 22 homers in 140 games this season, and he gets an appealing matchup with Athletics left-hander Gage Jump. Jump enters Saturday with a 5.12 ERA and 1.49 WHIP this campaign, and he's allowed 10 home runs.
Jump's recent form adds to the appeal. Over his last seven starts entering this matchup, he has posted a 6.31 ERA.
Arozarena also gives us the platoon advantage against the lefty. With Cal Raleigh sitting all the way down at +220 to homer in the same matchup, I prefer taking the longer +360 number on Arozarena.
He has enough power to take advantage of Jump's struggles, and Arozarena gets a significant park-factor bump at Sutter Health Park.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?
A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).
What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?
FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.
Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?
Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.
What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?
Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
