NFL Draft Betting Odds, Latest News and Top Prospects - FanDuel

By Kurt Boyer
Updated: March 4, 2024

2024 NFL Draft - Betting Odds for the #1-Overall Pick

Caleb Williams - QB, USC (-1600)
Drake Maye - QB, UNC (+1100)
Jayden Daniels - QB, LSU (+2500)
Marvin Harrison Jr - WR, OHIO ST (+2500)
Michael Penix Jr - QB, WASH (+10000)
Bo Nix - QB, ORE (+10000)
JC Latham - OT, BAMA (+10000)
Joe Alt - OT, ND (+10000)
Laiatu Latu - OT, UCLA (+10000)
Jared Verse - DE, FSU (+10000)
Dallas Turner - LB, BAMA (+10000)
JJ McCarthy - QB, MICH (+10000)
Brock Bowers - TE, UGA (+10000)
Olumuyiwa Fashanu - OT, PENN ST (+10000)

Which Teams Have the Most to Gain (or lose) in the 2024 NFL Draft?

Deja Vu for the Chicago Bears with their #1-Overall Pick

Stop us if you've heard this one before, the Chicago Bears own the #1-overall pick in the NFL Draft and are undecided as to what to do with it. Quarterback Justin Fields is about to enter his age-25 season—his 4th in the league.

The Ohio State product has largely underwhelmed in the Windy City after being taken 11th overall by Chicago in the 2021 NFL Draft. Sure, he's set some league rushing records for quarterbacks, but the passing game hasn't been there … and neither have the wins. Fields' Bears teams are 10-28 in 3 seasons.

As Fields nears the end of his rookie deal, the Bears once again face the dilemma of keeping him, renewing his contract, and trading down or dealing him and using the pick on a new franchise gunslinger. Last year, the Bears opted to keep Fields. This was a decision they announced relatively early in the offseason with the trade of their 1st-overall pick to the Panthers.

The Bears have yet to tip their hand in 2024, which doesn't mean that Fields is for sure being dealt, but it means these are some uncertain times in the Bears' front office.

The Case for Chicago to Keep Justin Fields

Justin Fields is only a 60% passer in his first 3 years in the league, but he's already rushed for 2,220 yards in 40 games. The only quarterback in history with more? Lamar Jackson.

Player	Team	1st 40 Games	Rush Yds	Rush TD
Lamar Jackson	BAL	2018-2020	2425	15
Justin Fields	CHI	2021-2023	2220	14
Michael Vick	ATL	2001-2004	2111	12
Bobby Douglass	CHI	1970-1973	1792	16
Cam Newton	CAR	2011-2013	1698	26

Fields has already established himself as one of the greatest running quarterbacks in NFL history, but he's about to get a whole lot more expensive for the Bears. His rookie deal expires after this upcoming 2024 NFL season. Fields' base salary is just $1.6 million in 2024. The Bears have a club option for a whopping $25.6 million on Fields in 2025 before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2026.

That's a 16x hike in pay for Fields from 2024 to 2025, and we assume he'll command even more on the open market in 2026. If the Bears elect to go forward with Fields as their franchise guy, they better be sure he's worth the money. The thought of getting to start the clock over with another rookie deal and get 4 more cheap seasons at quarterback must be pretty appealing to Bears GM Ryan Poles when he checks the balance sheet for 2025 and beyond.

Should the Bears turn down the chance to draft either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye this spring, it would mean they are locking themselves into Justin Fields at quarterback for several more seasons. Not just one … several.

But here's why keeping Fields in Chicago could work. The Bears got a great haul when they traded with the Panthers last spring, moving down to #10. Chicago used that 10th-overall pick to draft Darnell Wright—a bruising tackle from Tennessee. Getting protection for their franchise player was a wise move.

Fields was sacked more than any other NFL quarterback in 2022, 55 times. Last year, Fields was sacked only 44 times. Still a lot, but improvement. Fields' sack rate declined from 14.7% in 2022 to a more-stomachable 10.6% last year. Imagine where this Bears' offense would be if they dropped Fields' sack rate by 4% again in 2024.

Chicago also brought in receiver DJ Moore from Carolina in the trade, and he went off in 2023. Turns out that Fields plays better with weapons around him. Who’d have thought? With Moore out wide in 2023, Justin Fields saw improvements over his 2022 numbers in completion percentage, interception percentage, adjusted yards gained per attempt, and, most importantly, win rate.

The latter half of the 2023 season was extremely promising for Bears fans, who saw their team battle back from a 2-7 start to finish the year 7-10. Chicago's only 3 losses in the 2nd half of the year came to the Lions, Browns, and Packers—all 3 of whom were playoff teams. All 3 losses were by 1 score.

The Bears certainly figured something out late in the 2023 season. Head coach Matt Eberflus wiggled out of the hot seat, and the team was winning for the first time in his or Justin Fields' tenure.

To be able to bring the same core back, plus stacking more talent around Fields from trading down in another draft, is a terrific opportunity that Chicago should think twice about before pulling the trigger to dismantle the thing.

Sure, Fields' salary will increase in 2025 and beyond, but most Super Bowl winning teams do so while paying their quarterback the big bucks. It's always nice when a Brock Purdy-type leads his team to the Super Bowl on a rookie deal, but that's the exception—not the norm.

The Bears already know what they have in Fields. They already know he excels in at least one facet of the game. He already has a relationship with the coaching staff. They can add more assets to the team by trading down from the 1st-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Bears need to build something if they want to compete in the suddenly-good NFC North. They can't afford another year of rebuilding around a rookie quarterback. They have their man, and should trade the #1-overall pick.

The Case for Chicago to Trade Justin Fields

If the Bears are to move on from Fields, it must be right now—when they hold the highest pick they could ever hold. Yes, Chicago did get extremely fortunate to have the Panthers' first-round pick turn into the #1 this year, but what are the odds that it will happen again?

Fields has completed roughly 60% of his passes in his first 3 seasons in Chicago. That's really low. How much of his struggles have been skill-related, and how much of it is a lack of talent around him? Chicago's roster isn't exactly loaded.

If team management decides the onus for their 10-28 record with Fields under center is the quarterback's fault, they'll never have a better opportunity to upgrade than they do right now.

Caleb Williams is the overwhelming favorite to be drafted 1st overall. The USC product won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 and had another stellar season on a middling Trojans team in 2023. The Bears could absolutely keep their 1st-overall pick and take Caleb Williams if they believe he is "the one."

Chicago holds so much leverage, though, at #1 overall. There are some scenarios for the team in which they trade down, gain assets, and still get a franchise quarterback in this draft. North Carolina's Drake Maye is another top-tier quarterback prospect—right up there with Caleb Williams. The Bears could devise a scheme in which they trade down to #2 (owned by Washington) and draft Drake Maye, gaining assets and getting a franchise rookie quarterback.

The drawbacks to that plan are that Washington really seems to want Drake Maye. This plan would only work if the Commanders valued Williams over Maye enough that they'd part with substantial assets to move up 1 spot. Perhaps the Bears could threaten to draft Drake Maye 1st overall if the Commanders don't comply … that's always a possibility.

There is also the possibility of trading down to 3rd (Patriots). Chicago could command a massive haul for this pick as it would allow the Patriots to get either Williams or Maye—2 players they'd have no shot at otherwise.

Of course, this means that Chicago couldn't get either of those 2 guys, but quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels (the Heisman winner) or JJ McCarthy (the national champion) would become options.

Chicago will be hard-pressed to find a quarterback as good at running at Justin Fields in this draft (or any draft), but they might be able to make a lateral move in terms of overall skill. If the Bears could break even at quarterback while gaining assets and lowering their cap hit, they'd strengthen their team while extending their championship window—an intriguing combo.

Which Teams Have Two First-Round Picks in the 2024 NFL Draft?

Due to trades made in previous seasons, the Bears and Cardinals each possess a pair of 1st-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Bears accomplished this through that aforementioned trade with Carolina last year, which got Chicago the #1-overall pick here in 2024. The Cardinals got Houston's 27th-overall pick this season from the draft-day deal last year, allowing the Texans to draft DE Will Anderson from Alabama.

Owning 2 picks inside the top-10 further complicates the Bears' decisions this spring as they evaluate what to do with the first-overall pick and, ultimately, Justin Fields' future with the franchise.

FAQ

What Kind of Bets Can I Place on the NFL Draft?

The most common NFL draft bet placed is which player will go #1 overall. This is barely the tip of the iceberg for NFL Draft wagers, though.

Betting on which position a team will use their first pick on is a fun one. As is betting the position of Mr. Irrelevant—the last pick of the NFL Draft. Last year, it was quarterback Brock Purdy—the guy who is now starting for the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.

Over/under bets are big ones in the NFL Draft but become more like before/after bets. These wagers involve choosing whether a given player will be drafted before or after a certain point in the draft. For instance, will Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. be taken before or after pick #3.5?

A comfortable type of bet for fans of a certain team is to guess which player will be taken with your team's pick.

Check out the full suite of NFL Draft bets available on FanDuel’s NFL Draft Prop Bets page.

What are the Best Strategies for Betting on the 2024 NFL Draft?

The key is to stay informed. Here at FanDuel, we aim to provide all of the necessary NFL Draft betting information needed to have a fun and profitable experience.

Being a big fan of 1 or 2 NFL teams really helps in diagnosing what a team's needs are in the upcoming NFL Draft. Each franchise has its own agenda entering the draft and will be looking to fill different positions and fix areas that were a problem last season.

Putting yourself into a general manager's shoes and playing along with him as the NFL Draft unfolds gives you an excellent shot at nailing your 2024 NFL Draft picks