NCAA Basketball Pac-12 Conference Betting
By By Josh Walfish
Updated date: March 6, 2022
It feels wrong to bet on anyone except Arizona to win the Pac-12 Tournament this year after a dominant run in the league from the Wildcats. It is true that all three of Arizona’s losses came away from home, but it’s not like the Wildcats weren’t comfortable on the road, winning at Illinois and USC. The Wildcats won 16 Pac-12 games by double digits and won another one by nine points. At -140, the Wildcats might even be undervalued for the conference tournament in Las Vegas as they try to secure a spot on the top line for the NCAA Tournament.
If anyone is going to take down the Wildcats, it would of course be UCLA, which did hand Arizona one of its two conference losses this season. The Bruins had two bad weeks where it lost three of four, but two of those three losses were by three points on the road. UCLA was a top-five team in the preseason for a reason and we saw that potential in the early season before COVID-19 shut down their season for almost a month. The Bruins are well-equipped to go toe-to-toe with the Wildcats in a tournament final and good value at +280.
The odds escalate exponentially from there with USC at +600 largely due to the fact it is ranked in the polls. The Trojans’ best attribute is they don’t lose to bad teams for the most part, unless their campus is in Palo Alto. Aside from getting swept by Stanford, USC’s other losses this year all came to one of the other top-five seeds. The Trojans have the talent to give UCLA a challenge in a semifinal, but they were not particularly close with Arizona this year so USC might need an upset to win the tournament.
If there is going to be an upset, it will likely come in the semifinals when most likely fifth-seeded Oregon faces fourth-seeded Colorado. The Ducks could use a trip to the final to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament and have +1200 odds to actually win the whole tournament. It has just been an underwhelming year in general for Oregon, which has faded down the stretch after a strong start to conference play. The Ducks are obviously dangerous after going to Los Angeles and sweeping UCLA and USC earlier this season as well as losing by just three at Arizona. But Oregon has also lost five of its last six games to lose out on a bye to the quarterfinals.
The Buffaloes capitalized on that Oregon slump to earn the fourth seed and are an intriguing betting option at +4200. Colorado was able to take down Arizona at home and has won seven of its last eight games heading to Las Vegas. It has a game-changer who could take over games and the Buffaloes have won 20 games this season. The confidence and momentum are on Colorado’s side that it could give Arizona a tough time in the semifinals, and a second upset over the Wildcats might just put the Buffaloes on the right side of the bubble as well.
It’s been a rough past few years for the Pac-12, but this season was supposed to be the start of a resurgence. Instead, the league has underwhelmed yet again leaving just three teams definitely in the field for the NCAA Tournament. Some other schools had chances of potentially earning at-large bids, but just one school is left in that hunt while the other eight teams must win the tournament to earn a berth in the national tournament.
A lot was being said about the Pac-12’s national title drought, and Arizona carried some of that burden to end the slump. The Wildcats not only lived with those expectations, but thrived with that extra pressure to easily capture the league crown with just two losses. Arizona didn’t just win, though, it dominated the rest of the Pac-12 including big wins over USC and UCLA, the other two ranked teams in the league. It was the most consistent season Arizona has put together in a long time and it is once again a national title threat this season.
UCLA has underperformed its preseason projections, but that doesn’t mean it was a disappointing season at all. Instead, the Bruins navigated a tricky terrain to be much better than most people will give them credit for this year. They are in an excellent position to return to the Final Four and survived the one poor stretch of the season to win six of its last seven games, punctuated by a rivalry win over USC. The Bruins are just as good as their preseason top-five ranking would suggest, and they are ready to unleash it.
The Trojans are a fascinating case study for the Pac-12 because there just aren’t many quality wins on their resume at the moment. USC did its job in beating most of the lower-ranked teams it faced this year, but it went 1-3 against Arizona and UCLA and its best non-conference win was against San Diego State. The softer schedule is not necessarily the Trojans’ fault, but USC has a lot to prove with their only quality win being a home win over UCLA by three.