ACC Odds & Betting Lines for March Madness
By By Josh Walfish
Updated date: March 6, 2022
It is the most wonderful time of the year in college basketball—win or go home season. The true beginning of March Madness is upon us with the start of the conference tournaments in every conference in the nation. Although several leagues will already hand out their berths before the ACC even tips off its tournament, the ACC will have a very intriguing tourney this year. Everyone knows Duke is the heavy favorite after running away with its first regular-season title since 2010. The Blue Devils are -130 to win the tournament and strengthen their claim to potentially be a No. 1 seed come the NCAA Tournament. The most intriguing analysis is which teams could unseat the Blue Devils to cut down the nets at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
There are two teams with equal odds of upsetting Duke, Notre Dame and Wake Forest, both with +900 odds to win the tournament. Neither of these teams beat Duke this season, though the Demon Deacons only lost by two in Durham last month. The Fighting Irish probably deserve a slight edge over the Demon Deacons because Wake Forest is bracketed to face Duke in the semifinals while Notre Dame won’t face the Blue Devils until the final. The Fighting Irish also have a little bit more scoring than Wake Forest and have the better defense to handle Duke’s many scoring threats.
North Carolina owns +1000 odds to win the ACC Tournament, but a short rotation is going to be an issue in a tournament where teams will need to play three games in three days. The better pick might be Miami at +1200, which at least owns wins over all of the major contenders. The Hurricanes will have to face Duke in the semifinals at the moment, but there is no doubting the experience and tenacity Miami has shown this season. The Hurricanes can win games with offense, they can win games with defense and they can rebound the ball well as a team. They have all the characteristics of a team that can do some damage in a tournament like this.
Most of the ACC teams will be playing to extend their seasons, and that is especially true of in-state rivals Virginia Tech and Virginia, both of which are expected to make the NCAA Tournament this year. The Hokies are sitting firmly on the bubble, so they just need a few big wins to round out their resume and secure a spot. However, the Cavaliers need to win the tournament if they want to go dancing again this year. Virginia Tech has +1100 odds and enters the tournament as winners of nine of its last 11 games. That includes wins over Miami and Virginia, something that will help the Hokies’ resume as well as a possible quarterfinals date with Notre Dame. The Hokies are at least peaking at the right time as they head into the conference tournament and postseason play in general.
If any team outside the top-five has a chance to win the ACC Tournament, though, it is hard not to bet on a team like Virginia at +1700 that preaches defense first. The Cavaliers don’t have the offensive firepower they possessed when they were winning conference and national titles, but defense travels and no one has scored more than 71 points on Virginia since late January. If Virginia locks in on defense, it will be competitive in every game at the tournament, and it is hard to bet against a Tony Bennett team to cause a little bit of chaos at least.
It has undoubtedly been a subpar year for the Atlantic Coast Conference this year as many of the traditional powers in the league have struggled in 2021-22. Duke is still near the top of the conference, winning its first regular-season title in more than a decade this year, but it’s been a tough year even for a team like North Carolina, which has spent most of the season outside the top-25. Then there is the dropoff from recent successes like Florida State and Virginia, both of whom finished in the middle of the league, while Louisville is having its worst season in recent memory and will finish with a losing record for the first time in more than 20 years.
On the backside of those disappointments, though, are the pleasant surprises that have kept the ACC interesting at the very least. Notre Dame will finish tied for second in the conference and was able to overcome its roster turnover to find success. Miami and Wake Forest also both exceeded expectations and should find themselves in the NCAA Tournament this year. It might not mean as much to the Hurricanes, but it will be the first time in 12 years that Wake Forest plays in the round of 64 after losing in the First Four five seasons ago.
The depth of the ACC has long been its hallmark, but this season the conference might only see five teams make the NCAA Tournament. There are several programs that are more than capable of making a long run to claim the automatic bid, but it will take a lot for a team like Florida State or Virginia to make that case. However, the true bubble team this year is Virginia Tech, which lacks any resume-changing wins, but has mostly taken care of business against the weaker teams on its schedule. It would not be a surprise to see the Hokies in the field this year, but it also wouldn’t be a shock if they missed out by a hair this season.