NBA DFS Picks
By Kreighton Rahn
Updated: March 6, 2024
NBA DFS games on FanDuel Sportsbook are still one of the best ways to make money online these days. Everyone has the same salary cap for their team. Everyone has access to the same players. This is better than season-long fantasy. This is daily fantasy with everyone on a level playing field.
Having trouble finding the best lineup combinations for the 2023-24 season? Want to see more triple-doubles out of your guys? More 50-point games? If you love watching everyone on your NBA DFS roster outperforming projections, you need to start making this page part of your daily NBA DFS routine.
This is Value City, where NBA DFS players come to take ownership of the lineup-building process and cruise past their apathetic competition. This is the first step toward increasing your team's expected value (EV) and, in turn, your wallet's expected size.
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Building +EV Lineups Using Insights and Analytics
Building a winning FanDuel NBA DFS lineup requires knowing which game type you have entered into. Novice players may think it doesn't matter, but distinguishing between cash game and tournament strategy is one of the most important aspects of NBA DFS lineup creation.
Cash games are any game type where a large portion of the field gets paid out. Examples include head-to-head games, double-ups, and triple-ups. The goal in these types of games is to produce a decent lineup and avoid duds.
Placing first in the field in a cash game grants no extra reward. You're just as well off finishing one spot above the cut as you are blowing the competition out of the water with a monster score. Dud lineups that generate next to no fantasy points are killer in this game type, as a decent score will do most of the time.
In large-field tournaments, where only a small number of the entrants cash, selling out for a monster score is essential. Some experts refer to large tournaments as GPPs (guaranteed prize pools) because FanDuel will advertise a $100,000 guarantee or a $1 million guarantee.
In this format, a mediocre score won’t cut it. It's going to take a string of great fantasy performances to secure some cash. For this reason, it's best to take risks with your tournament lineup construction and go for broke. If you fizzle out, so be it, but you just might strike gold and win.
The two main strategies we'll be detailing below are our best advice for winning cash games and our angle of attack for taking down deep tournaments.
Mastering NBA DFS Cash Games Through Lineup Consistency
In NBA DFS, cash games demand a strategy totally different from the high-risk, high-reward nature of tournaments. In the cash game streets, it's about reliability and making calculated picks for value. Let's dive into the most important principles for building a winning cash game lineup in NBA DFS so you can get to crushing the competition.
Value reigns supreme in cash games. Identifying players priced below their true worth is a foundational strategy for all NBA DFS, but especially cash games. This doesn't mean always going for the cheapest option, but rather finding gems set to outperform their cost.
The ballers in the list below are all offered at varying price points. Why pay $10,000 for a guy scoring 30 fantasy points per night when you can get someone scoring 28 fantasy points per night at $9,000? Fantasy points per dollar spent is the key to optimizing your FanDuel salary cap.
Securing a high lineup floor is essential. The concept of a player's floor—the minimum performance level—is crucial. Your picks should consistently hit a baseline, ensuring your lineup doesn't suffer from unpredictable dips. High-floor players are your safety net.
These tend to be the ones who can fill up a stat sheet and don't rely on one skill or facet of the game to accumulate all of their points. Conversely, guys who get all of their fantasy points from one aspect of the game (i.e., 3-pointers) are not good NBA DFS cash game options.
There is safety in leaning on high-usage players who frequently have the ball in their hands; they are less prone to disappointing performances. Unlike in baseball or football, where players can break off a 70-yard touchdown or hit a 3-run homer, NBA DFS athletes accumulate their points slowly over time—attrition. This means distributing point guards and skilled inside scorers who maintain a steady flow of fantasy points throughout the game are very desirable NBA DFS cash game options.
Avoiding the three-point trap will save you from some embarrassing performances. While three-point specialists can explode for massive scores, they're a risky bet in NBA DFS cash games. An off-shooting night can be disastrous. Stick with players who contribute in multiple ways, per rule #3.
Tread carefully with defensive centers: Good defensive centers can rack up points with blocks and steals, but foul trouble is a real risk. A couple of early fouls can dramatically reduce the time they spend on the floor, and thus their impact.
Utilizing Player News for Lineup Optimization in NBA DFS GPP Tournaments
In GPPs, being contrarian and shooting for that massive score is key. We must take calculated risks to increase our ceiling because it requires some lofty numbers to take down a massive GPP tourney. In these games, we must shoot for the "boom or bust" players.
Being successful in a GPP involves fading a public lock—or a player nearly everyone will be getting into their lineups. In a tournament with thousands or even tens of thousands of entries, contrarian plays are necessary to separate your GPP lineup from the field.
Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing a terrible opponent and expected to go off? Guess what? He's on the top of everyone's cheat sheets, so fading him will work out wonderfully if he falters.
This high-risk, high-reward mentality is what is needed to consistently cash and even win these massive pool tournaments all season.
Fading a top player and being right means you are lightyears ahead of other lineups who shot themselves in the foot with a dud performance. You must now only beat out the other daily fantasy lineups with the foresight to also fade that player.
Fading a top player and being wrong means you probably aren't going to win that tournament, but those types of risky moves are necessary to create distance between your team and the projections and cheat sheets' recommendations of others.
Having trouble figuring out who the top picks are going to be that day? Use your resources. Check out plenty of NBA player news before tip-off to see who the public is high on and who is underappreciated.
It is wise to submit your lineups as late as possible because some players might be ruled out of a game due to health protocols, and the information released just minutes before tip-off.
Going into the DFS season, understand that large tournaments have tons of inherent variance. This means even the sharpest players will experience long dry spells without a significant win.
Diversify your NBA DFS bankroll by using cash games as your daily grind throughout the season, sprinkling in some GPPs.
Best NBA DFS Picks: Top Rankings and Projections for Guards in 2023-24 NBA DFS Lineups
Let's get the lineup construction ball rolling by pulling up the top-30 guards (point guards or shooting guards) and the number of FanDuel fantasy points they've accrued thus far in the 2023-24 season.
The regular season just began in late October, but we're coming up on one month of data here that we can use. Bear in mind that our rankings are sorted by fantasy points per game and not total fantasy points. This means that players who've played in abnormally few games (injury, suspension, etc.) will have misleading numbers. For this reason, we've excluded from this list anyone with fewer than 35 games played.
Remember that the FanDuel points listed for each player are derived from FanDuel’s NBA DFS scoring guide:
- Point Scored (1 point)
- Rebound (1.2 points)
- Assist (1.5 points)
- Block (3 points)
- Steal (3 points)
- Turnover (-1 point)
The averages listed below are each player's per-game production in points, rebounds, assists, and FanDuel fantasy points for the 2023-24 season.
| PLAYER | TEAM | FD PTS/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | GMS |
| Luka Doncic | DAL | 60 | 34.5 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 53 |
| Shai G.A. | OKC | 51.7 | 31.2 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 59 |
| D. Mitchell | CLE | 45.4 | 28 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 47 |
| Trae Young | ATL | 44.8 | 26.4 | 2.7 | 10.8 | 51 |
| T. Haliburton | IND | 43.5 | 20.8 | 3.8 | 11.3 | 49 |
| Devin Booker | PHX | 43.4 | 27.5 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 50 |
| De'Aaron Fox | SAC | 42.4 | 26.9 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 51 |
| Tyrese Maxey | PHI | 41.2 | 26 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 55 |
| Jalen Brunson | NY | 41.2 | 27.2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 57 |
| Kyrie Irving | DAL | 41.2 | 25.7 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 39 |
| A. Edwards | MIN | 40.6 | 26.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 58 |
| Damian Lillard | MIL | 39.5 | 24.2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 56 |
| Stephen Curry | GS | 39.1 | 27.1 | 4.3 | 5 | 57 |
| D. Bane | MEM | 38.3 | 24.4 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 37 |
| James Harden | LAC | 37.4 | 17.4 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 54 |
| C. Cunningham | DET | 37.3 | 22.2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 50 |
| D. Murray | ATL | 37.3 | 21.6 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 57 |
| Jamal Murray | DEN | 35.8 | 20.6 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 45 |
| Jaylen Brown | BOS | 35.4 | 22.5 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 55 |
| Terry Rozier | MIA | 35.4 | 20.3 | 4 | 6.3 | 43 |
| Fred VanVleet | HOU | 35.2 | 16.5 | 3.8 | 7.9 | 53 |
| Tyler Herro | MIA | 33.4 | 20.8 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 36 |
| A. Simons | POR | 33.1 | 22.4 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 36 |
| CJ McCollum | NO | 32.8 | 18.8 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 45 |
| Coby White | CHI | 32.6 | 19.3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 60 |
| D. Russell | LAL | 31.2 | 17.7 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 57 |
| Devin Vassell | SA | 31 | 19.3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 56 |
| Derrick White | BOS | 30.5 | 15.5 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 56 |
| RJ Barrett | TOR | 30.3 | 19.4 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 50 |
| Darius Garland | CLE | 30.2 | 18.4 | 2.4 | 6.1 | 36 |
He's not currently receiving odds to win the 2024 NBA MVP award, but Cavs guard Donovan Mitchell has got his Cavaliers in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference after helping the team win 40 of their first 61 games this year. Mitchell is the 3rd-highest scoring guard this year in NBA DFS games, trailing only Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
A 6'3 guard out of Louisville, "Spida" Mitchell is only 27 and already a 5-time All Star. He's in Year 2 in Cleveland after spending his first 5 professional seasons dominating in the backcourt with the Utah Jazz. Mitchell averaged 23.9 points per game with Utah on 44.1% shooting and 36.1% from deep. In 115 games with the Cavs, Mitchell has upped his scoring average to 28.1 points on 47.9% shooting and a better 38.0% rate from downtown.
Mitchell's insane production of 28.0 points, 6.2 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game this year ranks him 13th in the NBA in Player Efficiency Rating—a catch-all statistic encompassing everything a player does on the hardwood. Only household names like LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, etc. (all All Stars) are ahead of Mitchell this year in PER.
Mitchell does miss his fair share of shots—never maintaining a season-long field-goal percentage north of 50% nor a three-point percentage above 40%. This inefficiency holds him back in the end-of-season awards markets. He's not currently listed on FanDuel Sportsbook either in the MVP race or the Clutch Player of the Year running, despite being an All-Star in each of the past 5 regular seasons and a mainstay in the playoffs.
The Cavs' depth and balance also hinder Mitchell's ability to stand out. Guys like Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Shai G.A. are asked to take on a larger usage rate than Spida. Mitchell still ranks top-10 in usage rate league-wide, but most of the guys ahead of him in this year's NBA MVP race are used more on offense.
Best NBA DFS Picks: Top Rankings and Projections for Forwards in 2023-24 NBA DFS Lineups
Below are the NBA's top-30 forwards in FanDuel NBA DFS fantasy points thus far this 2023-24 basketball season. FanDuel's scoring criteria is laid out above in the "guards" section, if you need a refresher.
You'll notice many of these players are insanely tough matchups for the opposing defense because they are so versatile. Forward is the most stacked position in NBA DFS lineups because it is easy for larger guards to play up and undersized bigs to play down.
| PLAYER | TEAM | FD PTS/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | GMS |
| Giannis A. | MIL | 55 | 30.8 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 59 |
| LeBron James | LAL | 46.1 | 25.3 | 7 | 7.9 | 54 |
| Kevin Durant | PHX | 45.2 | 27.8 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 54 |
| Jayson Tatum | BOS | 45.2 | 27.1 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 57 |
| Victor W. | SA | 44.3 | 20.9 | 10.2 | 3.4 | 55 |
| Scottie Barnes | TOR | 41.5 | 19.9 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 60 |
| Julius Randle | NY | 40.6 | 24 | 9.2 | 5 | 46 |
| Kawhi Leonard | LAC | 40.5 | 24.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 54 |
| P. Banchero | ORL | 38.9 | 22.9 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 59 |
| D. DeRozan | CHI | 37.6 | 22.7 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 58 |
| Jimmy Butler | MIA | 37.4 | 21.8 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 41 |
| L. Markkanen | UTA | 37.3 | 23.1 | 8.3 | 2 | 51 |
| K.A. Towns | MIN | 36.9 | 22.3 | 8.5 | 3 | 59 |
| Pascal Siakam | IND | 36.8 | 21.7 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 60 |
| B. Ingram | NO | 36.8 | 21.9 | 5 | 5.8 | 55 |
| Z. Williamson | NO | 36.5 | 22.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 50 |
| Miles Bridges | CHA | 36.4 | 21.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 50 |
| Kyle Kuzma | WAS | 35.9 | 22.2 | 6.6 | 4 | 58 |
| Evan Mobley | CLE | 35.8 | 15.9 | 10.3 | 3 | 37 |
| Paul George | LAC | 35.7 | 22 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 54 |
| J. Jackson Jr. | MEM | 35.1 | 22.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 54 |
| Franz Wagner | ORL | 34.1 | 20.5 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 53 |
| Jalen Johnson | ATL | 33.5 | 15.6 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 46 |
| Mikal Bridges | BKN | 33.1 | 21.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 60 |
| Jalen Williams | OKC | 32.5 | 19.3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 54 |
| Tobias Harris | PHI | 31.6 | 17.6 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 54 |
| Jerami Grant | POR | 30.4 | 21.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 52 |
| M. Porter Jr. | DEN | 28.7 | 16.6 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 60 |
| Aaron Gordon | DEN | 28.3 | 14 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 55 |
| J. Smith Jr. | HOU | 27.8 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 55 |
LeBron James is not currently receiving odds to win the 2024 NBA MVP award either, but the 39-year-old already has plenty of accolades. Only Nikola Jokic, Shai G.A., Luka Doncic, Giannis, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard, Ant Edwards, and Steph Curry are listed right now on FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA MVP odds page, but LeBron is outscoring most of them in average nightly fantasy points.
The King is still an NBA DFS stud, racking up 46.1 FD PTS/G this season, thanks to a season-long line of 25.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per night. James is getting old by professional athlete standards but is still putting in 35 minutes per night for Coach Darvin Ham and the 9-seed Los Angeles Lakers.
LeBron's 2023-24 field-goal percentage (52.7%) is the best he's shot since 2017-18 back in Cleveland when he was 33 and finished 2nd to James Harden in the MVP voting. James has finally found his long-range jumper, too, notching a 40.7% three-point rate this year. For a career 34.7% three-point shooter, that's excellent. The 2012-13 season, LeBron's 3rd year in Miami, is the only time he's managed to keep his three-point percentage above 40%.
Should LeBron keep his three-point percentage above 40% this year, he'll be the oldest player (by far) to shoot 40% from deep on at least 5 attempts per night. The current record is 36 years old, which has been done by Ray Allen, Al Horford, Jason Kidd, Kyle Korver, and Reggie Miller. Steph Curry is 35 this year and is on pace to do it.-
Here's another record that LeBron James has shattered. Assuming he maintains his current pace (quite likely), 2023-24 will be the 20th season in his career in which he's notched at least 20/6/6. This also happens to be James' 20th professional season. He's averaged at least 20/6/6 every single year, folks!
The players with the next-most 20/6/6 seasons in NBA history are James Harden, Russ Westbrook, and Larry Bird. Each has 7.
This season, only Giannis Antetokounmpo has more fantasy points than LeBron James, among forwards. Overall, LeBron ranks 7th in the NBA in FanDuel fantasy points per game (FD PTS/G), trailing only the following players in this overall 2023-24 fantasy points per game table:
| Player | POS, TEAM | FD PTS/G | PTS/G |
| Luka Doncic | G, DAL | 60 | 34.5 |
| Nikola Jokic | C, DEN | 55.9 | 25.9 |
| Giannis A. | F, MIL | 55 | 30.8 |
| Shai G.A. | G, OKC | 51.7 | 31.2 |
| Anthony Davis | C, LAL | 50.2 | 25 |
| D. Sabonis | C, SAC | 48 | 19.9 |
| LeBron James | F, LAL | 46.1 | 25.3 |
Best NBA DFS Picks: Top Rankings and Projections for Centers in 2023-24 NBA DFS Lineups
Here is the list of the NBA's top-30 center-only players and how they are faring thus far in the 2023-24 NBA season.
| PLAYER | TEAM | FD PTS/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | GMS |
| Nikola Jokic | DEN | 55.9 | 25.9 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 59 |
| Anthony Davis | LAL | 50.2 | 25 | 12.3 | 3.6 | 58 |
| D. Sabonis | SAC | 48 | 19.9 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 59 |
| Bam Adebayo | MIA | 40.5 | 20.4 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 50 |
| A. Sengün | HOU | 40.2 | 20.8 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 59 |
| Nikola Vucevic | CHI | 37.3 | 17.9 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 55 |
| Chet Holmgren | OKC | 35.4 | 17.2 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 60 |
| Rudy Gobert | MIN | 34.7 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 1.2 | 59 |
| K. Porzingis | BOS | 34.7 | 20.3 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 44 |
| Jarrett Allen | CLE | 34.6 | 15.8 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 55 |
| Jalen Duren | DET | 32.7 | 13.9 | 11.8 | 2.6 | 45 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | PHX | 32.2 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 57 |
| Deandre Ayton | POR | 31.5 | 14.3 | 10.6 | 1.7 | 40 |
| N. Claxton | BKN | 31.1 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 2 | 50 |
| Myles Turner | IND | 30.8 | 17.2 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 58 |
| J. Valanciunas | NO | 29.7 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 2.2 | 61 |
| Clint Capela | ATL | 28.2 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 1 | 52 |
| Jakob Poeltl | TOR | 28.1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 50 |
| Brook Lopez | MIL | 27.4 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 58 |
| Daniel Gafford | DAL | 26.7 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 1.4 | 54 |
| Ivica Zubac | LAC | 26.6 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 1.3 | 47 |
| Walker Kessler | UTA | 24.1 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 0.9 | 51 |
| I. Hartenstein | NY | 23.4 | 7 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 55 |
| Nick Richards | CHA | 23.1 | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 51 |
| D. Lively II | DAL | 22.9 | 9 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 43 |
| O. Okongwu | ATL | 22.8 | 10.2 | 7 | 1.3 | 53 |
| W. Carter Jr. | ORL | 22.7 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 35 |
| Zach Collins | SA | 22.6 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 49 |
| Al Horford | BOS | 22.4 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 50 |
| A. Drummond | CHI | 22.3 | 8.5 | 9 | 0.5 | 60 |
Guide to Winning NBA DFS Tournaments – Best Lineups and DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel GPPs
The concept of being "contrarian" is often discussed in NBA DFS, but what exactly does this mean, and how does it impact our approach to building a lineup for greater expected value (EV)?
A contrarian approach involves challenging conventional wisdom and choosing a different path than the rest of the field. Take, for instance, the decision to exclude a player from your NBA DFS tournament team because they are expected to be popular among other players. This is a quintessential example of contrarian thinking. Yes, there's a risk that this guy balls out, and your lineup suffers because you chose to exclude him, but consider the significant advantage you gain if this player doesn't meet expectations.
It's important to realize the strategies for cash games and deep Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) contests are completely different. Understand that fact alone, and you'll be ahead of a decent chunk of the field. Adopting an extremely contrarian strategy in cash games is generally not advisable for a couple of reasons. First, such a strategy tends to be less effective in smaller fields because you gain less by fading the consensus. Second, in cash games, the goal isn't necessarily to finish first since there's no extra reward for doing so. Our aim is to land just above the cutoff line. Do that consistently, and you'll be rich. So, unlike in GPPs, there's no need to embrace undue risks in cash games.
Something to embrace in NBA DFS is that every player has his moment to shine in your fantasy lineup. He just needs the right matchup and DFS game type. Mastering when to play different players is something that top-tier fantasy managers do that sets them apart. Consider a veteran point guard with a high usage rate against a weak defense, perfect for cash games. Conversely, a rookie slasher—unpredictable yet capable of scoring 30 points on a good night—can be a high-reward pick in deep tournaments.
In GPPs, embracing a contrarian mindset and aiming for the top scores is crucial. Here, calculated gambles are necessary to achieve the high number of FanDuel fantasy points needed to win big and beat tens of thousands of other entries. Targeting boom-or-bust players can significantly raise your team's potential while they will tank your cash game lineup.
Treat FanDuel NBA DFS Games Like the Stock Market
No one wants to buy a big stock after it explodes. You want to get in while it's still cheap to profit off the price increase. Once the stock price skyrockets, dump it off to a speculator and take your easy profits.
Carry that stock market mentality over to the FanDuel NBA DFS game. Jaylen Brown from Boston may be priced at $7,000 one night in NBA DFS. Let's say he scores 30 points in four-straight games for the Celtics. His price will increase, and you won't be able to get him at $7,000 any longer. Don't be silly and roster Brown after his breakout. His price is now inflated. He is no longer a good value. Let someone else draft him into their lineup and overpay.
Likewise, if a good player is struggling, his price will drop. Truly good players will not remain in a funk forever. You know this guy is bound to snap out of it soon, and by rostering him at a cheaper price while the rest of the field is avoiding him, you can pick up some key value.
Price Is More Important than Talent in FanDuel NBA DFS
A player's value in the NBA DFS game depends fully on his projected fantasy points per each dollar you must spend to acquire him. Finding the price of a top PG or SF for one slate in basketball is easy. All salaries are listed on FanDuel.
The tricky part is projecting how many NBA DFS fantasy points a player is likely to score in a game. Here are some tips to help you make accurate point projections all season long.
How is the Player Trending? Looking at Recent Games' Fantasy Points and Understanding His Line
The recent reports on an NBA player will help you see how much money he is worth this game on the NBA DFS market. A review of recent statistics (points, rebounds, assists, etc.) can help you identify the most potential-packed options.
This research shouldn't seem daunting. There are all sorts of free resources that can fill you in on the following factors:
- Amount of minutes played and usage rate
- Rebounding percentage - how often the player gobbles up boards in his area
- Field goal percentage - both two and three-pointers
- Recent salary trends - is his salary slowly creeping up or sinking like a rock?
- Potential assists - especially important for a PG, helps identify when teammates are simply missing shots
- How often a player will hit his projections - is this player consistent or is he more of a boom-or-bust?
What Do the NBA DFS Experts Think About the Best NBA DFS Picks and Projections this Season?
Don't be afraid to steal NBA fantasy picks ideas from the experts. There are so many sites handing out free analysis and thoughts on the best players for NBA DFS events for the slate. Take advantage of these projections and the value. Work smarter, not harder.
The pros will consider advanced factors when making their season-long or single-slate projections, such as:
- Recent injuries. A player’s team might be plagued with injuries that will require him to play more minutes and take on a higher usage rate. Sometimes, the opposing team has an injury that might be to the player’s benefit.
- Matchups are critical. If the opposing player at a certain position is a weak defender, expect lots of points and rebounds per game—a.k.a. value.
- A team’s recent pace of play will influence projections. You may need to do a little digging and figure out if the change in pace is permanent or a result of temporary circumstances, for example, injuries or a trade.
FAQ
Which Players Should I Put in my NBA DFS Lineups?
In NBA DFS, your lineup should balance high-scoring stars with undervalued players (sleepers) poised for a breakout. Key factors include matchups, usage rate, and injury reports. For example, a top scorer facing a weak defense is often a must-play.
Many of the finer details of NBA DFS lineup construction revolve around whether you're in a cash game or a large tournament. In cash, the primary goal is to avoid duds. In deep tournaments, a monster score is the only desirable outcome.
Cash games are all about raising a player's floor—the minimum score he's likely to achieve. Rostering players with high floors is of the utmost importance In cash. These are guys with lower variance in their games, like point guards who have the ball in their hands constantly or centers who get lots of blocks and putbacks.
A player's ceiling is the maximum score he's likely to achieve. Maximizing the ceiling is everything in deep tournaments. High-ceiling players are ultra-desirable in these large-field formats because they can pop off and win you the thing. With high ceilings comes extra variance, so these types of players need to be avoided in cash games where a huge score is superfluous.
How Do I Find Value Plays in NBA DFS Games?
Identifying value plays in NBA DFS is crucial for constructing a winning lineup, so crucial, in fact, you could say it's the only thing fantasy owners should be worried about. Every NBA DFS player in a cash game or tournament is operating under the same salary cap, and yet the good ones are consistently able to generate more points with their lineups. How? Value plays.
A value play refers to a player whose DFS cost is low relative to the number of FanDuel fantasy points they are expected to score. These players are often the difference-makers in successful DFS lineups.
Look for players in line for increased playing time due to injuries or other rotation changes. When a starter is out, backups often see more court time and usage, leading to more opportunities to score FanDuel fantasy points. For example, a backup guard who typically plays 15 minutes but is projected to play 30 minutes due to a starter's injury is a potential value play if the market does not adjust accordingly. This often happens if he's a game-time decision. Keeping your ear to the ground for last-minute lineup changes can pay out massive dividends.
Players facing teams with weak defenses, especially against specific positions, can outperform their average FanDuel fantasy points. Utilize tools that provide defensive efficiency stats and player-vs-team history to identify favorable matchups.
Also consider recent form and player trends. Players on a hot streak or showing consistent improvement can offer great value, especially if that is leading to an increased role in the offense. Keep an eye on game logs to spot these trends. Listening to post-game coaches’ interviews can also provide valuable tidbits of information.
Finally, use advanced metrics like Usage Rate and Player Efficiency Rating (PER) to identify undervalued NBA players. A player with a high usage rate is more involved in their team's offense, increasing their chances of scoring, assisting, or grabbing rebounds. PER provides a snapshot of a player's overall efficiency and effectiveness, including their contributions on D.
What Stat is Most Important in NBA DFS?
If we have to pick one: minutes. Now, this may sound crazy because FanDuel awards fantasy points for things like points, rebounds, and steals. Your team profits nothing from minutes, so why is it so important?
Well, it's partially incorrect to say your fantasy team profits nothing from minutes. They do, just indirectly. Basketball is a sport of accumulation. Unlike in football or baseball, there is no big game-breaking play a basketball player can perform to win him a large number of FanDuel points in a short amount of time.
To rack up stats in basketball, that player must be on the court for long periods of time. Minutes are king … and usage rate is the prince. Usage rate is a measure of how many offensive possessions end with this player either scoring or assisting on a basket. A select few NBA players will gain more of their points on the defensive end, but the overwhelming majority are helping your team through the accumulation of points, assists, and rebounds.
What good is playing time if they're standing in the corner and never touch the ball? If minutes are the most important stat in NBA DFS, usage is 2nd. A close 2nd.
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