NBA Fantasy Sleepers

By Kreighton Rahn
Updated: March 11, 2024

Best FanDuel NBA DFS Sleepers – Analysis of the Top-50 Fantasy Sleepers

Whether playing low or high-stakes NBA DFS games on FanDuel, constructing the ultimate roster isn't just about snagging the top-tier talent; you gotta balance the budget.

It's tempting to load up on marquee names, but the real game-changer lies in uncovering value picks—those under-the-radar players who can turn losing days into winning ones without breaking the bank. Everyone's stars will perform (usually), but the best NBA DFS players get production out of the entire lineup. How is this done?

Mastering the "stars-and-scrubs" strategy is crucial for anyone serious about NBA DFS. This method requires drafting a couple of elite players and then filling out the rest of the fantasy roster with cost-effective sleepers. Assuming you can get a few of those sleeper picks to turn out, this approach will often outperform an entire roster of middling talent.

The thrill of NBA DFS lies in these calculated gambles, and we stress the word calculated. We're not just picking random dudes and hoping for the best. We do our homework.

At FanDuel, the magic number is $7,500. We deem any player priced below this a potential diamond in the rough—a sleeper who could provide excellent, unexpected returns for your team. Yes, the difference between a $7,000 player on FanDuel and one who's $4,000 can be large, but it's important to recognize that value can emerge from anywhere on the spectrum. Dismissing players based solely on their price point or a rough patch earlier in the season is not wise.

Successfully navigating the lower tiers of NBA talent requires keen insight. Remember, all professional basketball players are skilled athletes who excel at something. Every player has the potential to shine, given the right circumstances. Consistently winning at NBA DFS is about identifying those moments when a lesser-known player is poised for a breakout game.

Imagine the edge you'd have if you could predict when a benchwarmer would erupt for a game-changing 30-point performance. To help harness this advantage, we've created our list of the top NBA DFS sleepers for the 2023-24 season. These are players priced at or below $7,500 on FanDuel who have shown they can punch above their weight in terms of fantasy points per game.

Since we're ranking players by FanDuel fantasy points per game and not total fantasy points, we're only including players with at least 40 games played this season.

Here are the top-50 NBA DFS sleepers of 2023-24:

 

Drafting Good, Low-Ownership Sleeper Options on Terrible NBA Teams

In deep-field tournaments, especially, taking players off the radar can be very beneficial to scooting up the leaderboard. You stand to gain on nearly everybody in the tourney when an obscure, scarcely-owned player goes off.

There's no better place to look for sad, undervalued talent than on the worst teams the NBA has to offer. We're talking Pistons, Spurs, Wizards—garbage teams like that who are combined for a paltry 18% win rate.

The common NBA fan and NBA DFS player overlooks these teams when constructing their roster. Intuitively, this is a great place to look for sleeper value.

The list of the league's top-50 sleepers, above, houses names like Jalen Duren (DET), Devin Vassell (SA), and Tyus Jones (WAS). Each of these players has a well-established role on their team and gets theirs every night—even if the team as a whole loses nearly every game.

Team wins and losses don't matter in fantasy. All we care about is the numbers. Let's dig deeper into what makes some of these bargain-bin ballers worth rostering in your NBA DFS contests.

Pistons' Center Jalen Duren is 1 of 2 Players Doing Anything in Detroit This Year

Cade Cunningham is awesome offensively and a solid NBA DFS option. He's just not a sleeper. You gotta pay up to roster Cade in your FanDuel NBA DFS games.

The Pistons are tied for the worst record in basketball right now (with Washington) at 10-53. This puts them on pace for 13 wins, which would be the franchise's worst season ever. Detroit won 17 games last year, which was the 2nd-worst record in Pistons history—behind a 16-win 1979 season.

Needless to say, very little is going right in Detroit this year. Turning to this team for fantasy value requires a magnifying glass … or maybe a microscope. The naked eye won't cut it. It's pretty much just Cade and then the young center Jalen Duren.

There is a very good center in the middle of the floor at Little Caesars Arena who—despite his organization crumbling around him—is putting up some great NBA DFS numbers at an affordable (albeit increasing) price. His name is Jalen Duren.

Drafted 13th overall by Charlotte in 2022, Duren was flipped to the Pistons for a package of picks and players—a lateral move for the kid, as both teams stink. The Memphis Tigers product played in 67 games in his rookie season (2022-23), scoring 9.1 points per contest with 8.9 rebounds and a sterling 64.8% shooting percentage.

Only 1 other rookie in NBA history has ever averaged at least 9 points per game on 64% shooting or better from the field, and he also did it last season: Utah's Walker Kessler. Kessler and Duren simultaneously became the first 2 NBA rookies with this honor in 2022-23, earning them each spots on the NBA's All-Rookie Team. Both are listed at center for their respective teams.

Duren still barely qualifies to make this list as an NBA sleeper, but don't be surprised if we have to remove him by next week. His price is going up. We'll discuss this more in depth below.

Duren's 2023-24 season is going swimmingly, as he's making the most of being a big fish in a small pond. He's increased his scoring to 13.9 points per game while playing just over 30 minutes a night for the lowly Pistons. 11.8 rebounds per game makes Duren 1 of only 5 NBA players this season with at least 13.9 points and 11.8 boards a game. Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, Rudy Gobert, and Anthony Davis are the others.

Jalen Duren's Price Shooting Upward In FanDuel NBA DFS Games

Prior to the All-Star break, Jalen Duren's FanDuel NBA DFS salary was hovering around the $7,000 mark, easily qualifying as a sleeper per our $7,500 threshold. With an increased role on a depleted post-trade deadline roster, Duren's salary has shot up to around $7,600-$7,800, meaning he'll soon be dropped from this list as his average prevents him from being considered a sleeper.

Even if we have to remove him from sleeper status next week, Duren is putting up numbers in 2023-24 on par with some of the league's best bigs and remains a solid fantasy option in nearly all formats.

 

This is Jalen Duren's age-20 season, and he's on pace for 14 and 12 on over 60% shooting. Of course, we had to look and see the last time someone accomplished that. Averaging 14 points and 12 boards per game on 60% shooting has only been done by 8 different players in NBA history. From oldest to most recent, they are Wilt Chamberlain, Artis Gilmore, Dwight Howard, Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela, Hassan Whiteside, Rudy Gobert, and Domantas Sabonis.

Dwight Howard accomplished this feat with Orlando at age 21. The next-youngest player to pull off the ole' 14-12-60 was Clint Capela at age 24 with the Rockets. Jalen Duren just needs to up his averages by a few tenths to become the all-time youngest player to notch a 14-12-60 season—one of the few things the Pistons can be proud of amidst this historically awful year.

Can Sleepers Devin Vassell and Tyus Jones Lead Your NBA DFS Teams to Victory?

Most media outlets are not covering the San Antonio Spurs or Washington Wizards very often at all. Some casual basketball fans may not even know most of the players on either of these rosters.

Guards Devin Vassell (SA) and Tyus Jones (WAS) are a couple of under-the-radar NBA players who've been doing a lot for their teams of late.

Vassell is averaging 19.5 points per game, his career high, while also assisting on 4 shots per night and grabbing 4 boards per night. 2023-24 marks Vassell's 4th year in the league, and he's shooting a career-high 47.1% from the field. His three-point percentage (37.7%) is right at his career average, but Vassell is making over 50% of his two-pointers for the first time in his professional life. 54.3%, to be exact.

Washington's Tyus Jones is in his 9th year in the league but his first with the Wizards. He's started all 64 games for the Wizards this year, marking the first time in his career he's been a full-time starter. His 12.1 points per game in 2023-24 are a career-high, as are his 7.3 assists and 2.8 rebounds per game.

Jones finished 6th in last year's 6th Man of the Year Award voting, but he's taken himself out of the running for that award in 2023-24 as he's started every game. The Duke product is going bonkers from three-point land in 2023-24, hitting his triples at a 41.9% clip. This is the first year he's been over 40%.

Tyus Jones is taking 3.8 attempts from downtown in 2023-24 and hitting 41.9% of them. He is 1 of only 18 players in the league this year who've shot this well. The Wizards are tied for the worst record in basketball (with Detroit) so it's pretty incredible to find a player on their roster who is top-18 in anything.

Usage Rates for the Spurs and Wizards are the Key to Finding NBA DFS Sleepers

Being a big fish in a small pond certainly helps the fantasy production of both Devin Vassell and Tyus Jones. Vassell ranks 2nd on the Spurs with a 23.7% usage rate, trailing only the wunderkind 20-year-old Victor Wembenyama.

Vassell's current skill set would not warrant as high of a usage rate on other teams—say the Suns or Bucks—but he's able to consistently get his every night with the Spurs because he always has the ball in his hands. The driving statistic behind nearly all fantasy basketball production is usage. You have to get your touches to accumulate fantasy points. Period.

Tyus Jones is also a high-usage player, ranking 6th on his Wizards team at 16.4%. Jones isn't as voluminous a scorer as Vassell, but does drop more dimes than the Florida State product (his former ACC rival).

The ineptitude of the Wizards' offense helps Jones because it increases his usage rate, but it also hinders his ability to get assists because there aren't many shooters to pass to. Sure, Kyle Kuzma is the closest thing the Wizards have to a superstar, but the roster gets pretty shallow after that. Jordan Poole is a volume shooter, but he's having a terrible shooting season, hitting just 40.6% of his field-goal attempts and 31.6% of his threes.

How NBA Sleeper Picks Provide Value

Fantasy basketball leagues are all about value. In a standard season-long league snake draft, each team holds the same strength of picks. In NBA DFS, each player begins with the same budget. In theory, everyone should tie.

So, why are there winners and losers? Some fantasy basketball players are much better than others at finding value and leveraging that value into big points per game each week and year. Learn the secrets to finding this value so that you can be that guy this fantasy season!

During the first round, everyone tries to draft stars. Think LeBron, James Harden, Chris Paul, or anyone in the MVP conversation.

Over the middle rounds, the picks are going to be somewhat mediocre—like players who struggled last year and are looking for a rebound. During the final few rounds, the NBA Fantasy picks are mostly prospects and low-level players.

Imagine how good your team would be if you drafted stars in the first two rounds and picked up a star or two in the middle rounds! What if you grabbed a star in the late rounds, too? By drafting a much better player than the other picks around you, your team is gaining a step on the rest of the league. Your fantasy basketball team will be more than ready come game time.

Identifying Value in Picks

Younger players have more potential. The more seasons under one's belt, the more we know what to expect from him. Say Point Guard X is entering his 11th season. He is likely past his prime. If he was going to break out and become a star, he would have done so already. If looking for upside, we would rather gamble on 2nd-year Point Guard Y. We don't really know what to expect from Point Guard Y. He might be horrible, but he just might tear it up. In the middle to late rounds, we can afford to take some risks on high upside guys because we aren't missing out on much if they bust—and they just might surprise us!

A player who changes teams—especially for the first time in his career—should be watched closely as a sleeper candidate. Certain players do not mesh well with their coaches. It’s common for a young player to struggle during his first couple seasons, change teams, and then flourish and succeed. Did this guy suddenly improve that much overnight? No, he was always good. His old coach was not using him to his fullest potential and not helping him develop his tools during the year. He always had the potential to drop 20 points per game; we just never saw it on the court.

Breakout candidates often possess raw talent without the refinement or proper coaching. A dominant post player might thrive after moving to a more post-oriented offense and receiving more playing time per game. A volume shooter might double his scoring output per game when his new coach gives him the green light from deep. You need to begin analyzing how different guys will fit into different systems. This is how value is discovered.

Don't Trust the "Popular Picks"

Be careful of reaching too high to select "popular sleeper picks" in fantasy basketball. This phrase is an oxymoron because once a player becomes popular, he is no longer flying under the radar. His value is gone if everyone is expecting him to score a boatload of fantasy points per game. His salary cap hit will be too high to provide value.

Be wary of reaching to select everybody's favorite breakout candidate. This player is by no means guaranteed to have a good season, but his ADP will force you to take him in a round where adding a dud to the roster really hurts.

Drafting a dud in the 10th round is no big deal because you aren't missing out on much, and your performance per game won’t likely change. However, drafting a dud in the 2nd round is devastating because everyone else in your league is adding top-tier talent to their roster.

FAQ

What is a Fantasy Sleeper?

This is a player who is flying under the radar that other fantasy owners "sleep" on, hence the name. Such players provide as much value to your team as a higher-priced player because they produce more points per dollar than the mainstream lineup standouts like Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, or Steph Curry.

NBA Fantasy - Who to Pick?

Value. Value. Value. That is the name of the game in daily fantasy basketball. Why pay $10,000 for a point guard like Damian Lillard, who scores 28 points per game, if Mikal Bridges is available for $6,000, who scores 23 points a game?

Raw production is not everything. The best players from the Golden State Warriors or the New York Knicks are often overpriced. Evaluating usage rate and production levels versus the salary cap hit you're taking is what separates winning fantasy owners from the pack.

What is the best strategy for Fantasy Basketball?

First, you must distinguish between cash game and GPP (big tournament) strategy when crafting your DFS lineup.

In cash games, a monster score is not needed to turn a profit. An above-average number of fantasy points will get the job done. Astute owners are wise to take the safer options—guys who's points, rebounds, and assists will be less affected by gameflow. Our cash game lineups may not explode for mega fantasy points, but we don't need them to. Putting safe options out on the floor is the strat for cash.

In GPPs, however, we need to try and break the scoreboard. These contests are not won without huge scores so we need to employ those boom or bust players who just might put the lineup on their back and shoot you up the tournament rankings for a lucrative win

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