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Top 25 College Basketball Picks
Updated: March 19, 2024
By Kurt Boyer
Tale of 3 Sportsbook Scenarios For 2024's Top 25 Kingpins
The college basketball strongholds of Houston, UConn, and Purdue have garnered votes from the Associated Press, and still more "votes" from FanDuel Sportsbook users, as leading contenders of the Top 25 and the NCAAM national title race this season. But the Round of 64's betting scenarios for the titanic trio couldn't be more disparate.
Houston, for example, is expected to win a snoozer of a contest against Longwood on Friday, as evidenced by a plain O/U (124.5) FanDuel point total line resting next to Houston's 20+ point advantage on the point spread. Longwood is a Cinderella conference champion that finished only 5th in the Big South standings this season, although it's hard not too see a score like "Longwood 85, UNC-Asheville 59" from the Big South Tournament finals, and enthusiastically make picks on the #1 seeded Cougars to start off with a blow-out win. Lancers basketball, like a low of humble low seeds, may be peaking at the right time.
UConn's odds are deceptive in the Round of 64, since the defending NCAAM champions are only expected to cover their sizable point spread in the 2nd half. Connecticut's game odds against Stetson on Friday couldn't be much more optimistic, with the Huskies favored at (-3500) on the moneyline, and the opposing Stetson Hatters getting (+26.5) on a massive point spread. An O/U line of (16.5) total points scored is being offered for UConn point guard Tristen Newton, who is expected to lead the favorites. But look again at picks on Over/Under markets, and there's more than meets the eye in UConn's tourney odds.
There is caution on prop bets on a point guard to score 17+ points, leading to more "Under" prop bets on Newton to have a quiet game on Friday. The other hurdle for optimistic O/U prop bets is the likelihood of a top seed like UConn's defending squad taking a big halftime lead, then resting its starting-five for the upcoming regional quarterfinals on Saturday or Sunday. The game's sizable Over/Under points line of O/U (145.5) nonetheless suggests a different kind of contest on Friday, and a reasonably tough battle for Connecticut.
Jalen Blackmon of Stetson co-leads the Friday tilt's prop picks with a scoring line of O/U (16.5) points. Blackmon scored a fantastic 43 points in the Hatters' triumphant Atlantic Sun Tournament final, a crazy 94-91 clash with Austin Peay. This year's opening March Madness odds are bathed in the light of 2023's Cinderella story, which occurred when #16 seed Farleigh-Dickenson came off a similar point-scoring performance in the First Four before stunning top-seeded Purdue 63-58 in the Round of 64. Prop betting odds on a halftime score between UConn and Stetson show that FanDuel thinks the game will be tight for at least 20:00. Blackmon's foul total after 30:00 of play could mean the difference between UConn's starting lineup playing the whole game or getting an early breather.
Finally, odds on the sportsbook’s player prop picks for Purdue center Zach Edey will lean on rapid box scores and handicapping, at least as far as the Round of 64 is concerned. Purdue must wait for a winner from Wednesday's #16 seed First Four contest between Montana State and Grambling State before knowing who they'll tip off against on Friday night. It's safe to say that the Midwest #1 seed's preparations, and FanDuel’s odds on UP's tourney debut, will vary based on whether the Bobcats or Tigers emerge from the First Four. Montana State is a fast-break team that scored 100+ points in 3 regular-season games this season, while Grambling State's defensive-minded squad prevailed in the 2024 SWAC Tournament by allowing an average of just 56 points for 3 rounds of opponents.
Analyzing the Top 25 of College Basketball
Our sportsbook doesn’t always offer "prop betting" odds on college basketball's top March tournament regional seeds as early as February. However, users can glean from various clues which Top 25 picks have the best chance to enjoy a favorable college basketball tournament seed following their conference postseason.
College football's Top 25 is a matter of stern importance from preseason onward. Not only do the Top 25 college teams enjoy special media coverage on the gridiron, but ranking atop the Top 25 from the summer into fall can be a prohibitive edge in postseason seeding, should the team earn a Power-5 crown, or better yet, stay unbeaten all regular season. TCU garnered a seed in the 2022-23 College Football Playoff by winning all of its regular season contests, even though TCU would go on to finish 1-2 in the postseason. College hoops, by contrast, creates an environment of countless tip-offs and fatigue during the conference regular-season slate, and it's not always a great idea to sit atop the Top 25 all year.
The Top 25 of college basketball is more comparable to a NASCAR race, or a Tour de France. Teams that lead the Top 25 with 10-0 records and a best-in-the-land ranking are often found to be falling into the "top 50" as soon as the new calendar year's conference schedule starts grinding down on them.
Coaches of the college basketball Top 25 know that leagues like the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, and others have a leg-up on the competition when it comes to garnering solid March bids regardless of the team's AP ranking. That invites chances for teams to pull back on the throttle, leaving others to dominate the Top 25 in late winter. Gonzaga's easy path through the West Coast Conference threatened to break that trend in the early 2020s, as the Bulldogs often found themselves ranked atop the Top 25 with few regular-season opponents who could knock down the Zags. But as the users at FanDuel Sportsbook found out over time, Gonzaga is no more reliable in the March tournament than college hoops' next Top 25 contender. The team's unexpected struggles in conference games of the 2022-23 season could push Gonzaga out of the Top 25 and back into Cinderella status each spring.
Top seeds of the postseason are often the teams from major conferences who have the best overall records, and who at least win a few games in their league's postseason tournament. Shy away from "sexy" picks to earn a #1 seed who rule over the Top 25 early in the season, and consider schools that bookmakers trust to contend for national titles. The best pick from basketball's Top 25 is often a legacy brand hiding in the hardwood at #17 or #18.
FanDuel has hundreds, even thousands of unique gaming opportunities on college basketball's Top 25, from Most Outstanding Player odds and funky “mascot” prop bets to picks and propositions based on the winner and loser of the national championship game in April. Will the media's celebrated power-forward from a Top 25 pick dominate with more double-doubles down the stretch? You can gamble on that, or pick a fierce rival to prevail in the conference race, and cheer for the same player to get in foul trouble.
Armchair college basketball pundits can speculate on moneyline odds, the point-spread line, or the O/U picks of a Top 25 hardwood showdown. Scroll below for a refresher course on the main betting lines of any college basketball tip-off offered to users at FanDuel Sportsbook.
College Basketball Moneyline Picks: Reading the Top 25's Odds
When it comes to picks to win the game straight-up, moneyline odds offer both a risk and reward. The moneyline is always expressed in a number relative to $100. If NC State carries (-150) moneyline odds to win, that means for every $150 wagered on the Wolfpack, the house will pay out $100 if the team wins the game. On the underdog side, moneyline odds represent the amount paid out on won $100 bets if the ‘dog prevails. (+180) odds equal a $180 payout on $100, (+310) odds represent a $310 payout on the same risk, and so on.
Point Spreads on College Basketball
Another popular college basketball betting market is point spreads, which are displayed with a “line” representing the expected margin-of-victory for the favorites. A favorite’s point spread will be shown with a “minus” symbol next to a whole number or a halved fraction, such as (-4) or (-4.5), while an underdog facing a Top 25 pick would be represented (+4) or (+4.5) on the other pick, with gamblers spotted 4 or (almost) 5 points before the tip-off.
The Over/Under Line on a Top 25 College Basketball Game
The O/U lines on college basketball are relatively easy to understand. Over/Under bets are the simplest sports betting pick available, asking whether the total amount of points scored in the contest will exceed or fall short of the O/U number.
College basketball gamblers find Over/Under picks displayed as whole numbers or halved fractions, like (143.5) or (143 ½), the latter style of O/U line preventing a “push” outcome if the final score tallies exactly 143 or 144 points. Once again, payoff odds are listed next to the “O” and the “U” in an Over/Under, usually (-110) odds or a similar number.
Top 25 Picks: FanDuel's Odds on a College Hoops National Title
For professional basketball, baseball, and hockey, the “7-game series” format is considered the surest way to find out which of 2 opponents is the stronger team. But when pundits talk about a “Cinderella” seed in the March hoops tournament advancing to the Final Four thanks to “1-game scenarios” against the Top 25's big shots, they’re missing the broader angle on how the final tournament determines its Division 1 hoops champion.
The 68-team Big Dance tournament is like an obstacle course without a safety net. By the end of the tourney, thousands of players and coaches’ careers change. Many student-athletes move on to the NBA or EuroLeague, or give up organized basketball forever. Part of what’s fun about “futures” gambling on the national championship winner is that the bettor gets to live out the journey of a program in winter and spring, from scrapping for a solid seed in the big dance, to warding off underdogs in the early rounds, to competing in the Sweet Sixteen despite numerous bumps and bruises.
Sure, maybe NC State couldn’t have beaten Clyde Drexler and Houston in 1983 if the national championship had been decided by a 7-game series. That’s not the test that March (and early April) requires a college basketball team to pass. The test is to go 6-0 when everyone else can’t, and the Wolfpack went 6-0 to claim a national crown.
Which Top 25 picks have the firepower, the size, the depth, and the coaching to withstand 6 straight opponents in the college basketball tournament, and reign supreme in the Final Four? Futures odds provide an enjoyable way to predict the ultimate winner.
FanDuel is also glad to offer “future prop” odds on every viable college hoops team’s bid to reach the Final Four, even prior to the end of the regular season. National championship odds on the Top 25 appear on our gaming boards soon after each college basketball cycle ends, but the odds and picks change as events play out on and off the hardwood.
Top 25 College Basketball FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)
Do Top 25 College Basketball Teams Always Reach the March Tournament?
Nearly always, but not every Top 25 pick in every season. Back in 2004, Utah went 25-2 and was ranked in the Top 25 before losing to Cal State-Northridge in the opening round of the Big West Conference Tournament, and failed to receive the prestigious tournament bid. Nearly 10 years later, a similar circumstance held SMU out of the bracket.
The tournament's committee soon began inviting greater numbers of teams to a bracket that includes a "First Four" of bubble picks, or low-ranked teams that barely qualify for the Big Dance. That's helped to salve a few schools' feelings along the way.
I'm Still Not Getting the Point Spread. How Does It Work?
There are a few ways to describe point spreads in college basketball. The traditional method of understanding a spread is to think in terms of margin-of-victory. For instance, suppose Duke is favored over Connecticut by 8 points at FanDuel Sportsbook. That means the Blue Devils can only cover the spread 1 way, by beating the Huskies by 9 points or more. UConn bettors against-the-spread can watch their wager pay off in 2 different ways, because the Huskies can “cover” by winning the game outright, or cover by losing by less than 8 points. If the game finishes with the winner and margin “predicted” on the betting board, i.e., Duke winning by 8, then all bets are returned in an outcome known as a push.
Another way of thinking about the spread is as a visual graph. Imagine a grid running left to right with every possible margin-of-victory for Team A and Team B. On the far left is a 50-point margin for Team A, getting progressively smaller as it goes toward “0” at the center, followed by progressively larger margins-of-victory for Team B.
Now, imagine a line bisecting the grid on or between 2 of the numbers representing possible margins-of-victory for both teams. The “line” may fall on (-3) or a 3-point margin-of-victory for Team A today, but it might be pushed to the right or left, to (-1.5) or (-5), as of tomorrow. When the outcome occurs from the game, it falls on the “covered” side of the line. Maybe that’s how a “line” and a “spread” came to be known as what they are.
How Big is the College Basketball Tournament Field?
Almost 70 teams—and it could be expanding. A total of 64 college basketball teams once comprised the tournament field. However, because of the large number of Division 1 Men's Basketball teams and conferences, dozens of deserving schools were left out of the annual gala in favor of automatic qualifying bids from the winners of small D1 leagues.
The First Four has caused problems with the tournament's ability to delineate rounds clearly to casual and hardcore CBB fans alike. The committee first tried to rebrand its maiden 64-team round as the "Second Round," a mistake that confused viewers who've come to know 64 teams as the opening round's field. Alternatively, no one's sure about calling it the "First Round," since First Four teams with excellent W/L records may be seeded as highly as #11 and deserve their status as the tourney's debut attraction.
Who's the Biggest Underdog to Win a Men's Basketball Title?
The legendary "Jimmy V" squad from NC State in the 1980s has become the blueprint for "Cinderella" bids in the Final Four, but Villanova holds the record as the tourney's lowest seed ever to win the national title, prevailing as a #8 seed in 1985.
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