MLB Picks

By Kreighton Rahn
Updated October 29, 2023

MLB Playoffs Betting Trends in 2023

With 1 series remaining, the Fall Classic, in the entire 2023 MLB postseason, it's well worth taking a look at the current betting trends we've witnessed this year and comparing them to the trends we've seen developing over the past decade.

The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks are in the middle of a tight series, tied with 1 game apiece. Texas won Game 1 in Arlington in comeback fashion on an Adolis Garcia walk off homer in the 11th inning. The Snakes, unbroken by the crushing loss, stormed back to win Game 2 decisively by a score of 9-1.

With the series now shifting to Chase Field in Arizona, we need to check out how moneyline bettors and runline bettors are faring this postseason.

Betting Home-Field Advantage in the MLB Playoffs

The implementation of instant replay in the NFL drastically reduced the home-field advantage in that league. Does the home field matter in the MLB playoffs? We answered this question before the MLB playoffs began with some overarching trends regarding the home team. Here's what we found:

Betting Moneyline and Runline Home MLB Playoff Teams

We explored win rates both on the ML and RL in the MLB Playoffs over the past 10 years for home teams. This first table shows the moneyline win rates along with the average lines for home playoff teams in each postseason since 2012.

We excluded 2020 from our results so that the empty stadiums didn't skew our home-field results. Also, note that the numbers given for 2023 are subject to change because we have at least 3 more World Series games left to play—and possibly 5 more!

Betting home MLB Playoff teams blindly on the moneyline is not a wise endeavor. As you can see, that play was up slightly over the span of the last 10 postseasons but has been losing horribly here in 2023. We knew it wasn't going to be that easy to find a profitable trend. We need to throw on a few extra criteria, but first, let's check out the home runlines over the same span.

Home runlines, if the home team is favored and given -1.5, are doing pretty well over the past 10 years. Yes, the win rate for these bets is below 50%, but they're plus money, so it's profitable.

The famed 52.4% mark that bettors always toss around is for basketball and football spreads at (-110). When getting plus money, it's possible to be extremely profitable with win rates at or below 50% (as we are here). It does scare us a little bit that all of the profit over the past 2 seasons on -1.5 home runlines has come in 2 seasons (2013 and 2017), but that didn't stop us from backing this system in 2023. Unfortunately, we've lost a few units because of it.

Home favorites have been faring well in recent history in the MLB Playoffs, but aren't getting it done so far this postseason. With up to 5 games remaining in the 2023 playoffs, perhaps the home faves can turn it around.

Betting on MLB Teams After Blowing Leads in the MLB Playoffs

Here's a fun MLB playoffs betting system we touched on at the beginning of October before the playoffs began: betting on teams who just blew a lead in the previous game. Similar to the infamous zig-zag system, we like this system because professional athletes are stronger mentally than the common man. Recreational bettors think there might be no bouncing back from a bad loss in the playoffs, but this is actually a great spot to get some value on a team that is viewed negatively by the public.

Research shows that teams who just lost after holding a lead for 5 innings or more in the previous game in the series are likely to come back the next game determined to get a win. And they often succeed in doing so.

Take a look at what teams have done in playoff games over the past 10 postseasons after blowing a lead they held for at least 5 innings and losing the game prior. Note that we added in the results from the portion of the 2023 postseason that has already been played.

This system is killing it over the 10-year span we've been using it, but it doesn't produce a lot of plays. There is not much volume in this system, but the results are very strong—just 2 losing years since 2009, and both losses were by only 1-unit.

The 1 play this year was the Minnesota Twins winning Game 1 of their Wild Card Round series versus the Jays after blowing a late lead in the final game of the regular season in Colorado. Should this count? Well, it won, so we're counting it.

Betting the 2023 MLB Playoffs - Expert Tips for Winning MLB Picks

Playoff baseball is nothing like its regular season counterpart. In a 162-game marathon, no single game means all that much. Get to October, though, and 50,000 people are on their feet, screaming, and hanging on every pitch. It's a completely different animal and must be treated differently.

Looking for MLB picks during this intense MLB Playoffs season? You've come to the right place. We've got a treasure trove of useful playoff betting systems above, plus tons of expert tips right here that are specific to the playoff version of America's pastime.

In October, managers pull their starting pitchers at the drop of a hat—even the aces. This creates games in which both managers are relying on their bullpens to get 15+ outs. Announcers often call it "playoff mode" when a manager gets trigger-happy on his pitching staff.

On one hand, it's fun because managers utilize every single resource on their bench, and it truly becomes a team game. On the other, handicapping is rendered more difficult because bullpens have so many moving pieces to account for.

An increase in bullpen usage isn't the only change from regular season to playoff baseball. We're witnessing a significant uptick in small-ball strategies to secure those crucial early leads, especially from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

As the FOX broadcasting team put it, the DBacks manager, Torey Luvullo, is looking at new-age numbers but employing an old-school strategy. The Snakes lead the Majors in sacrifices and are also stealing bases at a high rate.

Many managers opt for more small ball in October, loving the psychological edge that comes from making their opponents play from behind. Luvullo and the Diamondbacks are taking a facet of the game in which they already excel and putting the pedal to the metal.

You've got to factor this in when making your MLB postseason bets. There is going to be a little less swinging for the fences and a little more emphasis placed on manufacturing a single run. This is also the first postseason with the new pickoff rules and wider bases, meaning playing small ball will be easier than ever before.

Fortunately for the players' health and our viewing pleasure, this series is being played in 2 warm-weather sites. In northern cities, the weather gets so bitterly cold by the end of October that players must bundle up for an 8 p.m. start time. This creates lower totals, less power hitting, and yes, even more small ball as a result. This phenomenon is not in play in 2023, however, because Arlington and Phoenix are both nice and toasty—even this time of year. It's still short-sleeved weather, which is good, or we wouldn't be able to see Adolis Garcia's massive arms.

How Important is the Starting Pitcher in 2023 MLB Playoffs Handicapping?

The days of blindly wagering on MLB workhorse aces like Shane Bieber or Luis Castillo for easy 8-inning victories are gone. Now, placing MLB bets requires research on a myriad of bullpen pitchers whose names may sound foreign even to big fans of the game.

As MLB starting pitchers continue to have shorter outings, the significance of handicapping the bullpen grows. The average length of an MLB start just recently fell below 6 innings for the first time in league history, and starts only get shorter in October. Today's bullpen pitchers are not your grandpa's bullpen pitchers. They're throwing over half the game in many cases.

These guys come in chucking, too, often flirting with triple digits on the gun. MLB handicappers and oddsmakers recognize that the availability of vital bullpen pieces and their matchups against opposing batters significantly affect the odds of a particular MLB game. Not factoring this information into your research is leaving out a major facet of modern playoff baseball.

In the regular season, the starting pitching matchup is your bread and butter for MLB picks. Fast-forward to the MLB Playoffs, though, and the game changes. Managers are quick on the draw, starting pitchers hit the showers earlier, and the bullpen takes center stage in the highest-leverage spots. Betting MLB Playoffs now requires a more nuanced approach as bullpen pitchers become just as important as the starter in most cases.

Let's lay down the stats. In last year's MLB postseason, starting pitchers averaged just over 4 innings per game. That's a stark contrast to the regular season, where starters often go 6 innings or more (which is still short by old-timey standards). The bullpen is responsible for nearly 60% of the innings in modern MLB Playoff games. The pen cannot be ignored. It's everything.

Remember, a bullpen's ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting averages are prone to fluky randomness. Factoring in metrics like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) into your bullpen research can help identify staff or individuals who are getting either lucky or unlucky on the mound.

FAQ

How Do Sportsbooks Set MLB Odds?

Random number generator … just kidding. Sportsbooks use a combination of historical data, player statistics, and current season performance to set the MLB odds each day. They employ algorithms that factor in variables like team win-loss records, player injuries, and even weather conditions.

Once a book releases its initial odds for a game, the line is then adjusted based on the bets a book is receiving. Sportsbooks aim to balance their action as much as possible to avoid having too much riding on one side of a game. If everyone's betting on the favored Yankees, for example, the odds will shift to make bets on the underdog more appealing.

So the initial odds are set by the sportsbook, but the closing odds are largely a reflection of the betting market and what the sharpest, biggest bettors think of the game.

How to Pick MLB Winners

Figuring out which side is the best bet in an MLB game is called handicapping. Handicapping MLB games almost always begins with the starting pitching, but cannot stop with it (for reasons we discuss, at length, above).

While analyzing a pitcher versus a given lineup, it is important to remember that a lineup will not fare the same against different types of pitchers. Some lineups are loaded with big, slow sluggers who might tee off on a junkballer but will struggle to manufacture runs against a flamethrower.

Other lineups are filled with speedy, slap hitters who will work deep counts and give flamethrowers fits but might struggle to punish slower pitchers.

When is the Best Time to Place MLB Picks?

To better understand the answer to this question, first make sure you're familiar with what we discussed in the top question ("How Do Sportsbooks Set MLB Odds?").

Choosing to bet on a game the night before when the lines are first released (called "taking the overnight line") means you are betting against the sportsbook's projection for a game. Most sharp bettors find this is the best time to find large edges and mistakes in the lines.

As first pitch approaches, sharp bettors throwing down large amounts on either side has shifted the odds around. This means late bettors are going up against the MLB betting pros instead of the sportsbook's projections. This doesn't mean that it's impossible to find edges in the late lines, it's just a bit more difficult.

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