How Do Prices Work in Prediction Markets on FanDuel?
In prediction markets on FanDuel, a contract's price is what you pay per contract, and it doubles as the market's implied chance of the outcome. A Yes contract priced at 60 cents implies roughly a 60 percent chance the event happens; reading prediction market prices as probabilities is the standard way to interpret markets like these.
The No price works the same way in reverse: it reflects the market's assessment that the event will not occur. Check the displayed No price before you place an order.
FanDuel is available nationwide, though what you can access depends on where you are. In states where FanDuel Sportsbook operates, you get the sports betting experience. In most other locations, eligible customers can access FanDuel Predicts, our prediction market trading experience.
Read the Price
Prices typically trade between 1 and 99 cents. A contract that settles correct pays out at a full 100 cents per contract; a contract on the wrong side settles at zero, and you lose the entire premium you paid.
The price does two jobs at once: it's your cost per contract and the market's current estimate of the chance. A higher price means the market sees the outcome as more likely, and a correct prediction pays out less per contract. A lower price means the market sees it as less likely: a larger payout per contract if you're correct, and a greater chance the position settles at zero.
Check the Payout, and the Downside
Say you predict Yes at 60 cents per contract. If the event happens, each contract settles at 100 cents, a gain of 40 cents per contract before the fee. If it doesn't, each contract settles at zero and you lose the 60 cents you paid per contract, never more; excluding fees, your losses never exceed your original order value.
A 2 percent transaction fee is included at checkout based on the potential payout, and the same 2 percent applies to the payout if you cash out early. You can go deeper on fees and settlement in our guide to how prediction market payouts work.
Watch the Price Move
Prediction markets on FanDuel are peer-to-peer: making a prediction is like buying or selling your opinion. Prices shift as other users buy and sell positions, so the implied chance updates in real time.
When you place an order, we fill it at the best available market price at that moment, sometimes combining several price points. If the price changes a lot while your order processes, we bring you back to checkout to confirm. Contracts are listed by CME Group derivatives exchanges and regulated by the CFTC.
Switch the Display
You can view the same price as cents, a percent, a multiplier, or other price displays. Only the view changes; your potential payout stays the same.
Stay In or Cash Out
Before a market settles, you can hold your position for a chance at the payout or sell early where cash out is available. Only select markets allow early cash out, and when you do, the funds return to your buying power as pending payouts.
Keep in mind your position's value can move down as well as up before settlement.
That covers prices: what you pay, what the market thinks, and what each side settles at. For more on contracts, orders, and settlement, visit our support hub.