Pitcher Volatility and Daily Fantasy Baseball

Pitcher Volatility and Daily Fantasy Baseball
Intuitively, we know that some pitchers are more consistent than others. Think about Edwin Jackson‘s year for instance. On his ledger this year he has a complete game shutout and eight games in which he’s given up no more than one run. And yet he also has an eight-run monster, a seven-run twelve-hit disasterpiece, and ...

Predictive Peripherals for Batters and What They Tell Us

Predictive Peripherals for Batters and What They Tell Us
When we talk about predicting future performance for pitchers, we know not to use ERA. From year to year, this year’s ERA is only lightly correlated with next year’s number in that stat. If we instead focus on strikeouts, walks, and ground balls — statistics which are better correlated with next year’s results — we ...

Umpires, Strike Zones, and Daily Fantasy Baseball

Umpires, Strike Zones, and Daily Fantasy Baseball
Head on over to umpire Eric Gregg‘s wikipedia page, and there’s an indisputable but remarkable sentence high up on the page: He was known as a pioneering black umpire, for his longtime weight problems, and for his controversial home plate umpiring in Game 5 of the 1997 National League Championship Series, when his generous strike ...

Nathan Eovaldi and Evaluating Young Starters for Matchup Play

Nathan Eovaldi and Evaluating Young Starters for Matchup Play
Tis the time of the season for the young pitcher. Especially when rosters expand in the next two weeks, teams will call up pitchers for spot starts and evaluation. How can we best evaluate a pitcher with so few reliable stats at our disposal? Let’s take the case of Nathan Eovaldi, a Dodger pitcher with ...

Ground Balls, Fly Balls, Strikeouts and Daily Fantasy Baseball

Ground Balls, Fly Balls, Strikeouts and Daily Fantasy Baseball
Keep the ball on the ground, and it stays in the park. So goes the mantra for pitchers as they advance in the ranks. And we know that a good ground-ball rate leads to a small home-run rate, so put a notch in the belt for the worm burners. They’ll avoid the big blast at ...

Streakiness, Volatility and Daily Fantasy Baseball

Streakiness, Volatility and Daily Fantasy Baseball
The word follows some high-profile players around: Streaky. Most often, sabermetrically-inclined analysts poo-poo the idea that streakiness exists. You can’t use a player’s past week to predict their next day, they say. Yes, but. That’s not the whole story. There are volatile players. These players do go into poor periods. Look at any player’s monthly ...

Lucas Duda, Ground Balls, Power, and Daily Fantasy Baseball

Lucas Duda, Ground Balls, Power, and Daily Fantasy Baseball
Fly balls mean power. That makes sense intuitively, right? Can’t hit em out until you can hit em up. The average batting line on a fly ball is .213/.208/.554. On a ground ball, those numbers drop to .234/.234/.253. Or, another way to say it is, somewhere around zero percent of ground balls leave the park, ...

Platoon Splits on Pitches and Daily Fantasy Baseball

Platoon Splits on Pitches and Daily Fantasy Baseball
We took Platoon Splits 101 a few weeks back, and we learned how to effectively mix and match our lefties and righties in our FanDuel lineups. Now it’s time for Platoon Splits 201. Because not only do batters and pitchers have platoon splits… but so do pitches. Yup, each type of pitch has unique movement ...

Velocity and Daily Fantasy Baseball

Velocity and Daily Fantasy Baseball
Google ‘velocity and baseball’ and you might get something that looks like your spam folder. “Increase your velocity!” “Velocity mechanics workshop!” “How to get more velocity on your fastball!” So, yeah, velocity is important. (But so is the motion of the ocean?) It’s not like you it’s the only thing you need to pitch well ...

Park Factors and Daily Fantasy Baseball

Park Factors and Daily Fantasy Baseball
Listen to almost any television broadcast for your favorite team and you’ll hear it at least once. This guy loves playing here! Must be in the water! Check out his five hits in ten at-bats here! For example, you might have heard that┬áVladimir Guerrero absolutely loves Seattle. Obviously, the performance of a player in a ...