Congratulations to those of you who were able to cash in on yesterday’s $600K Super Monster. Good luck to the 5 competitors who were able to stamp their ticket to Las Vegas, and congratulations on the huge payday. After a “monster” Tuesday, MLB Wednesday surly won’t disappoint. There’s another huge Monster today, with the $100K MLB Monster. Also, there’s another chance for one person to gain entry to the DFBC in Vegas, with the $200 DFBC Qualifier. Sign up early to insure your spot in the contests. I’d like to help you build your winning rosters, so here are my plays of the day for June 4th.
*** “Next up” feature: A player will be put into parenthesis, who will serve as a replacement player, if the player chosen is not in their lineup or is part of a rainout. The replacement player will be chosen from the same pricing tier as the recommended player, making for an easy swap. They may also be considered as my 2nd favorite player (or 1A) from their respective position and pricing tier. You can find that player at the end of the blurb and they will be labeled as “next up”. ***
Keep an eye on the weather today; as of early Wednesday morning, it looks like three games may potentially be impacted by rain. Those games: Bos @ Cle (67% chance of rain), SFG @ Cin (100% chance of rain), and Tor @ Det (100% chance of rain). I will not recommend any players from the games in Cincinnati and Detroit. And I will attempt to avoid the game in Cleveland, but that one has a much higher possibility of being played.
Adam Wainwright ($10,900): Waino was rocked in his last start at home against the Giants, and gave his owners a dud with 1.33 FDP. That’s obviously bad if you played him in that game, but it’s good news for today. He rarely has back-to-back poor starts. In fact, this season he’s had three poor starts. Right now, it remains unknown how he follows up his most recent start. In his first poor start, he scored 3 FDP and followed it up with a 17-point performance. In his second poor start, he scored 8 FDP and he followed it up with a 22-point performance. So, the law of averages tells us that we are looking at about 19.5 FDP today. While that’s a strong number from your pitcher, he’s as high priced as any pitcher has been all season. In order to cover that huge salary he’ll need to give us 20+ points today. Of course he is capable of that; he’s given us 20+ FDP in 3 starts this season to-date. However, I think he will give us just under 20 today. He’s still very useable because he is basically money in the bank. But, on the road he’s a tad worse, the Royals have been hitting better as of late, and they strikeout at the lowest rate in baseball (15.4%). You can get equal upside from Strasburg today for $1,000 less, but he’s riskier because of his up and down performances this year.
(Next up, Stephen Strasburg $9,900)
Marco Estrada ($7,500): Estrada is my favorite mid-priced pitcher today. The matchup with the Twins is above average. They are struggling at the dish, after their fast start to the year. Their wOBA over the last 14 days is .271, which is very bad. They have gone from over 5 runs per game in April, to just 4.26. And, for a strikeout pitcher like Estrada, the Twins K 22.8% of the time, which gives him lots of potential to rack up some points. The Win is well within reach today, too. Nolasco is the opponent, and he’s terrible, and the Brewers are winning as many games as anyone in baseball right now.
(Next up, Ian Kennedy $7,000)
Tom Koehler ($5,800): Fanduel is not giving the Marlins pitchers any respect. Henderson Alvarez was also cheap yesterday, and all he did was throw a complete game shutout against theses same Rays. The only difference was that game was at home in Miami. The Rays offense has been so pathetic, that I’m not worried about the switch over to Tampa for today’s game. Koehler has had some excellent starts this season and is easily the best, cheap option today. In his last 6 starts, three of them have been double-digit performances (15,13, and 18 FDP), and three have been single digit (0.66, 1, and 9). Yes, some of those single digit performances were horrendous, but Milwaukee, Atlanta, and the LA Dodgers, whom are better offenses than he’ll face with Tampa today. The Rays wOBA over the last 14 days is .277, which is pathetic, and for the season they are scoring 3.81 runs per game. They just can’t get anything going and at the moment, there is not one player on the roster that could be considered “hot”.
(Next up, Ryan Vogelsong $6,100)
Jonathan Lucroy ($3,900): Like I mentioned previously, Nolasco is getting the ball for the Twins today, and more often than not, he’s terrible. I love targeting against him when he’s on the hill and the Brewers are hitting as well as any team in baseball right now. One of my favorite things to do is to target catchers who are returning after an off day. I have no real numbers to back up my case, so you’re going to just have to take my word for it. Catchers seem to return fresh and I’ve noticed, on several occasions, that they seem to have good games on their first day back. So, if you can’t read between the lines, Lucroy was off yesterday. He’ll be planted right in the heart of the order and in his last start, he went 3-4 with a homer.
(Next up, Wilin Rosario $3,300)
Miguel Montero ($3,200): Per usual, I will be heavily targeting the Coors game today. It’s the highest O/U of the day at 10.5, and after a low(er) scoring game yesterday, we may be in for some fireworks. Montero hits cleanup more often than not and hitting behind Goldy will give him plenty of opportunity to produce some runs. In his career against Jordan Lyles, he’s gone 5-10 with 2 doubles. He’s also hit safely in 5 of his last 7 games.
(Next up, Wilson Ramos $3,000)
Carlos Ruiz ($2,500): Ruiz gets the nod for punt-option catcher of the day. He’s had good success against Strasburg in his career, going 4-10 with a homer and a double. He’s a solid contrarian play today. The Phillies have had well-documented troubles against RHP this season, even with their lefty heavy lineup. Ruiz is one of the few right-handed bats that the Phillies will have in their lineup, so anyone that actually takes someone from the Phils today, will probably avoid Ruiz. The low ownership, tough matchup, and good BvP success, could make him a sneaky option today.
(Next up, Mike Zunino $2,600)
Paul Goldschmidt ($4,400): With EE and Miggy potentially being rained out, Goldy becomes the top option of the day at first base. Even if that game doesn’t get rained out, he still could be the best option today with the game in Coors. I will try to minimize my selections from this game today, but it will be hard. The pitching matchup isn’t keeping me away (Collmenter @ Lyles). Collmenter has been the better of the two, but Coors makes every pitcher look like Ricky Nolasco. Goldy had a day off yesterday, so he’ll be nice and fresh to hit some bombs today, and I get the feeling he’ll connect with at least one. He’s doing this season what we have come to expect; 10 homers and 80 total RBI/Runs scored on the season, so far. He hasn’t been anything special over his last 10 games, only hitting safely in 5 of them. So, I think the off day came at a perfect time and he’ll return rejuvenated and ready to mash.
(Next up, Jose Abreu $4,100)
Anthony Rizzo ($3,400): I really wanted to go with Morneau here, but I promised to limit my Coors players, and there are some others that I have in mind that I prefer over him. Rizzo is coming off a tough game against Zach Wheeler yesterday, but Wheeler is really starting to settle in. Today the Cubs are at home against Dice-K. Wrigley Field has no chance of keeping balls in play with Dice-K on the hill. Rizzo just recently had a nice 4-game stretch, where he went 6-16 with 2 homers, and 9 total RBI/Runs scored. Rizzo is looking like he’s going to be a perennial all-star, he’s starting to hit lefties (which have always been his demise), he’s cut back on his K’s, and he’s improving his batting average. The power is real, of course, with 10 homers on the year, and this matchup with Dice-K is one of the better matchups of the day for any player.
(Next up, Mark Reynolds $3,200)
James Loney ($2,200): I know, I look like a hypocrite after I bashed the Rays offense a few blurbs ago. I still think that they are awful, but you can do much worse than Loney for a minimum salary player. Plus, not everyday will you find a minimum salary player, hitting cleanup (except Ike Davis). Then again, Joe Maddon could have him hitting leadoff or ninth and oosno one would be surprised. Loney hasn’t been all that bad recently. In his last 4 games he’s 5-14 with a double, but no other counting stats. None, nada, zilch. But, how can you produce runs when no one else is getting on base or able to drive you in.
(Next up, Ike Davis $2,200)
Jose Altuve ($3,800): Altuve has been excellent recently. He’s hit safely in 9 of his last 10 games, and in that span he’s stolen 3 bases and that brings his total to 20 on the year. He’s been bumped to the 2-hole for the last couple of games and Dexter Fowler has been moved to leadoff. It shouldn’t really affect his run production, but he was hitting so well in the leadoff spot, that I’m not sure I would have messed with it. Today the Astros get Garrett Richards, who is having a Jekyll and Hyde season. He has posted six double-digit performances in a row, and has followed it up with two awful games in his last three (3, and -2.34 FDP). Until Richards straightens himself out, I wouldn’t be afraid to target his opponents, and an Astros stack isn’t the worst idea in the world. Their offense is looking dangerous right now with Altuve, Springer, and newly promoted Chris Singleton. The new-look Astros are turning into an exciting team to watch. I’m happy for you Astros fans (fan?), it’s been a long time coming.
(Next up, Aaron Hill $3,100)
Brian Dozier ($3,100): Dozier continues to hit like the best second baseman in the Majors. He’s having a truly remarkable season, and from a fantasy standpoint, he’s been a golden ticket. He homered yesterday and is now up to a dozen of each, steals and homers. Estrada is a player that I feel good about today, but he has given up the most homeruns in baseball this season, with 17. Dozier looks like he’s about to begin another crazy hot streak, having gone 6-13 with 2 doubles, a homer, and 7 total RBI/Runs in his last three games. Take him while he’s relatively cheap, because he’ll be the top priced second baseman by the end of the week, if he stays hot.
(Next up, Anthony Rendon $3,000)
Neil Walker ($2,900): Walker doesn’t care that he’s playing in Petco right now. I guess no one told him, or the entire Pirates team, that Petco is a pitchers park. In this series, so far, he’s gone 4-8 with a double, a homer, and 6 total RBI/Runs scored. Neil is up to 11 homers on the season! That’s almost more impressive than Doziers dozen bombs, because it looked like Walker’s better years were behind him. Kennedy has pitched VERY well at home, but I’m willing to ride Walker and the Pirates while they are hitting.
(Next up, Emilio Bonifacio $2,900)
Josh Donaldson ($4,800): Donaldson has a chance to be the overall play of the day. Vidal Nuno is getting the start today for the Yankees and he’s been terrible this season. I expect that it’s only a matter of time before he’s dumped from the rotation. If they A’s put up double digits today, then he may not get another start. We all know how wonderful Yankee Stadium is for hitters, and we all know how wonderful Donaldson has hit for two years now. He’s up to 15 homeruns and is almost halfway to 100 RBI and 100 Runs (48 of each), and it’s only June 4th. This game could get out of hand quickly, and I wanted to mention that Brandon Moss is in play today if you are looking to stack some A’s. Moss has hit lefties well and Nuno has been awful against lefties. It doesn’t hurt that Moss is also at 15 homeruns, after hitting two yesterday, and the short porch at Yankee Stadium is an added bonus, for both players.
(Next up, David Wright $4,000)
Manny Machado ($3,100): Machado, Machado, man, I would roster Machado, man. Last seasons double machine is starting to heat up. The early season rust was to be expected, but the guy is a very good hitter and should get hot for a while. He has a small 3-game hitting streak and has gone 5-13 in that span, with a double, a homer, and 9 total RBI/Runs scored. Arlington will allow for plenty of runs in this game and the O/U is set at 9. It doesn’t hurt that he hits in front of Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and Nelson Cruz either. Better days ahead, Nick Martinez. I am skipping a low-option 3B tonight. There wasn’t anyone who stood out, but my next up player, Pedro Alvarez, is about to get white-hot and he would be my next choice after Machado.
(Next up, Pedro Alvarez $3,000)
Troy Tulowitzki $4,400): We should all be thanking Tulo for going through a cold stretch on the road. He was 1-16 leading up to last night’s game. His salary was well over $5K when he was crushing the ball and he’s now at an affordable price, just in time for a home stand. Last night was the first game of the home stand, and of course Tulo homered (2-4, HR).
(Next up, Hanley Ramirez $4,100)
Jed Lowrie ($3,100): After the Coors game, the A’s will be my biggest target of the day. Nuno is getting crushed, as I’ve already mentioned, and I am recommending a stack, if you can afford to do so. Lowrie has struggled for a few weeks, but he could be starting to get hot. In his last three games he’s gone 3-9 with a double, a homer, 4 walks, and 7 total RBI/Runs scored.
(Next up, Ian Desmond $3,000)
Jean Segura ($2,800): I said this last week and I’ll say it again…what does Segura have to do to get a salary increase? I’m not complaining, because I will just keep using him. He’s entrenched himself into the leadoff spot and all he’s done is produce since he’s been there. He’s hit safely in 7 out of his last 10 games, and 5 of those games he had multiple hits. He hasn’t been producing in the power department, like he did in the first half last season, but the steals are starting to add up, as he’s up to 11 on the year. Do you take the leadoff hitter against Ricky Nolasco? Yes, please.
(Next up, Asdrubal Cabrera $2,800)
Nelson Cruz ($5,200): I don’t think I need to elaborate or sell you on this choice. If you can afford Cruz, then you are taking him until he slows down. He has a league leading 21 homers on the year, and has hit 6 in his last 9 games. I think that’s all you need to hear.
(Next up, Yasiel Puig $5,000)
Ryan Braun ($4,800): You already know my thoughts about Nolasco and the Brewers offense today. So, I’ll just throw some of Braun’s recent numbers at you: Last 10 games: 16 hits, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homers, 12 RBI, 9 Runs scored, and even a steal. Not bad and today’s matchup is just so, so good. Carlos Gomez is of course, also in play today.
(Next up, George Springer $4,800)
Charlie Blackmon/Corey Dickerson ($3,800): Two picks for the price of one here. Not literally, or this would be a steal for your lineup at $1,900 each. I couldn’t decide which one I liked more today, because they are both hitting very well. They will both be in the lineup today, with CarGo potentially hitting the DL soon. My yearly league hates you CarGo. This game should be high scoring. Blackmon probably appeals to me the most. He has a larger sample size this season and hits leadoff. I’m not sure where Dickerson will find himself in the lineup today, but it shouldn’t matter all that much. Dickerson will probably not be as highly owned, especially with the two of them being the same price, so if you want to be a contrarian, then go with him.
(Next up, Michael Cuddyer $3,400)
Jonathan Singleton ($2,200): I expected Singleton to be on the list of first baseman, but he’s not. I will probably use him every day while he’s minimum priced, and I just love when prospects are recalled and start off dirt-cheap. Remember when Springer was minimum priced? Yea, that didn’t last very long, and neither will Singleton. He has tremendous power; think Ryan Howard when he was a minor leaguer waiting to be recalled. In his debut, he went 1-3 with a homer and there will be more goodness to come. Enjoy him while you can afford him.
(Next up, Matt den Dekker $2,200)