Frantic Free Agency And How It Affects Your 2011 Fantasy Team
Football is back! And we can finally talk about real football transactions. We’ve already had a whirlwind of deals and there are till more to come, but I’ll take a look at the progress so far and the fantasy implications that ensue.
DeAngelo Williams: The biggest piece in the free agent market has signed with his old team. His 5 year, 43 million dollar deal has 21 million guaranteed. That ain’t chump change. This sets off an avalanche of fantasy ramifications. First off, Jonathan Stewart lost all his breakout possibility. He can still have value, but it’s too early to tell where he’ll start going in drafts. DeAngelo also lost value. In Denver he would have gotten the majority of the carries on a slightly better team. This also gives Knowshon Moreno a pretty big boost. Denver will probably go after another running back like Willis McGahee, but DeAngelo would have hurt Moreno’s value much more.
Kyle Orton: Neck beard will have to start shaving now that he is almost in Miami. That neck-beard flop sweat is not a good look Kyle. The soon to be new Dolphins quarterback will have plenty of opportunities to get reacquainted with Brandon Marshall and should help his fantasy value out a ton. He will compete with Chad Henne, but I give him the head start there. Orton is never going to be a 16 week fantasy starter, but helps the players around him and can be a decent fill in/back up.
Kevin Kolb: Like Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald gets a big bump from having a new quarterback at the helm. This deal isn’t quite done, but Adam Schefter says it will be and I trust the Schef with my fake football life. So just chisel it in stone. You might be done by the time the deal is official.
Santonio Holmes: He has agreed to a five year deal with the New York Football Jets. This was almost a foregone conclusion, but it’s official now. It does seem unlikely that the Jets will be able to re-sign Braylon Edwards and are now looking at Randy Moss. But that’s still in rumor mode. Edwards is on a run first team with Mark Sanchez as his QB so he’s not going to be a top 10 receiver, but he fits easily in that 10-15 range. He’ll be a valuable fantasy player this season. Look for 1100 yards/8 TDs.
Donovan McNabb: It appears that McNabb is now a Viking (UPDATE: Yes, he is officially now a Viking). This was the speculation for a while. I like the move for him and think he can succeed there, but there is a lot of talk that the Vikings won’t be able to retain Sidney Rice and if that happens it hurts McNabb’s fantasy value a ton (UPDATE: Yep, Rice went to the Seahawks, so McNabb loses some serious value). But this is good news for Adrian Peterson. McNabb knows how to get the ball to his running backs through the air and that should help AP’s overall value.
Matt Hasselbeck: Hass is now a Tennessee Titan. This is good news for Chris Johnson (if he plays this season), Kenny Britt and Jared Cook. Hass is an accurate and smart quarterback, but is also extremely brittle at this point in his career. Compared to the prospects of playing a rookie QB this is a life saver for Titan fantasy owners, but there is still a lot of risk that Hass won’t last.
Tarvaris Jackson: He signed with the Seattle Seahawks which wouldn’t really be news since whoever he signs with should want him as a back up, but the Seahawks will have him competing with Charlie Whitehurt and Matt Leinart. Be very afraid Seachicken fans. At least Sidney Rice is joining him in Seattle, but then again, the two of them didn’t exactly tear it up when they were on the field at the same time in Minnesota.
Santana Moss: The other horrible QB crew in the NFL looks to be the Washington Redskins‘ John Beck, Kellen Clemens and Rex Grossman. And sadly for Santana Moss who just re-signed with the Redskins, those are his quarterbacks. Moss had a career high in receptions last season, but these guys cut his fantasy value off at the knees.
Alex Smith: The 49ers are giving him one last shot and have signed him to a one year deal for 5 million dollars. That seems about 5 million too much for Smith, but who am I to spend their money for them!? This probably keeps Colin Kaepernick out of the starting lineup for a little while.
Lance Moore: He has signed back on with the Saints and is poised for a nice season. Drew Brees loves him and I sure didn’t see them entertaining letting him walk. Here’s my post on him from a couple days ago. Wait, I mean here.
Besides Fanduel.com, Chet has written for the N.Y. Times: Fifth Down Blog, and his own sites Razzball and Third Coast Sports. He is extremely/obsessively active on Twitter and will answer your questions as best he can if you throw them @ChetRazzball.